Time to get serious about rising sea levels

Phil Jarratt
Swellnet Dispatch

While teenaged climate change warrior Greta Thunberg’s death stare and dramatic call to action was attracting more attention at the UN last week than any visitor since Nikita Kruschev took off his shoe and pounded the table nearly 60 years ago, a much lower-key event at a safe height above the Med in Monaco launched the sober findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2019 report.

We’re getting used to hearing alarmist reports on every aspect of climate change, but the IPCC report provides the most definitive scientific evidence yet of warmer, more acidic and less productive seas. Glaciers and ice sheets are melting, causing sea levels to rise at an accelerating rate. Basically, our oceans are screwed and Australia’s coastline isn’t much better, and the best we can hope for is mitigation of the consequences through serious emissions reduction and carbon sequestration.

Dr Javier Leon launches a drone to record changing sand volumes

“Our oceans have changed,” Australian Nathan Bindoff, a report co-author, and one of the world's leading climate scientists, told the ABC. “The global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970, and the rate of warming has doubled since 1993, so we are totally convinced the oceans are warming up.”

In Australia, where 85 percent of our population lives within 50 kilometres of the coast, we will need to adapt our coastal cities and communities to unavoidable sea level rise. There are a range of possible options, from building barriers to planned relocation, to protecting the beaches, coral reefs and mangroves that provide natural coastal defences. But perhaps the most responsible thing we can do for future generations – other than reduce emissions - is to monitor and manage the evolving situation, particularly in places like Queensland’s Gold and Sunshine Coasts, where there is a growing population and a growing visitor base, a large percentage of both attracted by quality waves.

While many surfers regard the increasing incidence of extreme weather events as an opportunity for more frequent Coral Sea swells and East Coast lows, others, like Noosa-based surfer/scientist Dr Javier Leon, are taking a broader view and using their surfer’s knowledge of the sea to promote the use of new technologies to monitor and protect our coasts.

Says Javier: “The beaches of the Sunshine Coast are a critical environment and resource for the region, but they are also the most susceptible landform to coastal hazards such as inundation and erosion, which are forecast to increase. Managing the risk requires investment in measurement, monitoring and modelling to enable short-term response and long-term planning.”

Drone documentation of beach volume at Main Beach, Noosa

The problem is that collecting accurate data in high energy surf zones can be dangerous to people and instruments, and traditional methods used to survey the coastline are costly and time-consuming, and therefore only used sporadically. Which is why Javier, and other surfer-scientists, are championing the relatively low-cost use of those wonderful tools of trade of the modern surf media, the drone and the webcam, as part of a cost-effective coastal imaging system. This method uses images obtained from fixed cameras and drones, and applies cutting edge analysis to frequently map the position of the shoreline, changes in beach volume and the shallow bathymetry (the shape of the ocean floor that influences wave formation), as well as monitor beach use.

While coastal imaging systems have been in use along parts of our coast for more than 20 years, improvements in technology, the introduction of the concept of “citizen science”, and growing evidence of rapidly rising sea levels mean that the time is right now to build on our understanding of what is happening on our doorstep. The pilot program that Javier and his colleagues at University of Sunshine Coast’s School of Science and Engineering hope to initiate along Noosa’s beaches and points will use a combination of video cameras, drones and “Coastsnap” stations, or fixed position cameras, which allow citizen scientists to feed their own smart phone coastal observations into the data bank.

//PHIL JARRATT

Comments

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 2:54pm

I read recently that there is a water level measuring station at Fort Denison in Sydney. It's been taking daily measurements since 1914 and reports that in that time, Sydney Harbour has actually decreased by 6cm.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 3:05pm

I just did a quick face check Zen.. That's misleading ;)

"The two longest tide gauge records at Fort Denison in Sydney Harbour and at Fremantle in Western Australia indicate a sea level trend of 0.73 mm/yr at Fort Denison and a trend of 1.78 mm/yr at Fremantle"

And data to 2010.. "The mean sea level trend is 0.65 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.10 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1886 to 2010 which is equivalent to a change of 0.21 feet in 100 years."

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 3:16pm

Just found a link to more updated data through to current.

I did also read that app Fort Denison is possibly sinking, but will need to see if this is taken into account into these data..

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 5:58pm

Apologies- I got that info from a less than credible source but thought I'd chuck it up anyway.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 3:21pm

6cm in 124 years ! ( 0.48 cm/ year )

I’m not that amazing at maths , perhaps someone can assist me here ....if the prediction in 2000 was for a several metre rise ( 3m ) by 2100 , and we are 20 percent of the way there, does this mean that the sea level at Fort Dennison will be increasing by almost 4 cm / year every year or just the same slow progress for a few decades and then the sea level will rise at a foot per week ?

Confusing.

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 4:03pm

Was thinking the same, but there is a possibility that sea levels could rise exponentially over time as we head towards the end of the century.

btw, you left out a zero, it should be 0.048cm/year.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:02pm

Oops ....cheers , Westof.

I meant mm. Too long out of the game !

Westofthelake's picture
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Westofthelake commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 8:05pm

One thing is certain, like average temperatures the sea level IS rising.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 8:08pm

Definitely is rising. Incontrovertible fact.

By 0.73mm / year at Fort Denison.

the_b's picture
the_b's picture
the_b commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 6:38pm

In the engineering industry we've been working with 0.9m rise from 1990 levels to 2100.
It would also be reasonable to expect that the rate of rise would increase with time

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:06pm

Thanks!

DaveM's picture
DaveM's picture
DaveM commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 12:29pm

No worries m8....theres fisherman that have been going out everyday for 40 years who are scratching their heads with the same confusion....

WendyM's picture
WendyM's picture
WendyM commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 7:01pm

Well craig your on it

sfshralp's picture
sfshralp's picture
sfshralp commented Sunday, 6 Oct 2019 at 10:15am

Over population and nations blowing each other up are going to effect us more than sea levels rising in the next 50 yrs. Unless of course, you live on one of those small islands in the south pacific. No one seems to care about them cause they have no money. What the yanks did to those people in and around the Bikini atoll is outrageous!

OldMateAndy's picture
OldMateAndy's picture
OldMateAndy commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 10:25am

O.2 of 12 inches in a hundred years. Hilarious.
The worlds population has doubled in the last fifty years and yet there is this hysteria about carbon dioxide (logically - if the argument of anthropogenically influenced climate change is to hold water- helped along by the extra 3.5 billion people and building the infrastructure that they obviously require to exist). And some bloke talks about sand shifting on Noosa Main Beach, where they’ve built two rock groynes and moved a river mouth as if it’s somehow connected to carbon dioxide. I call bullshit.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 10:39am

Think of that increase worldwide on a global surface that's 71% ocean. Quite significant and it's not sand movement but rising sea levels..

OldMateAndy's picture
OldMateAndy's picture
OldMateAndy commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 11:24am

More significant than population (that is apparently causing the problem)?
Mate, if Jarrett (an he’s referring to Noosa) was talking about an untouched stretch of coastline I’d probably entertain the idea of other factors, but as I said, they moved the rivermouth and put in two rock goynes. There are plenty of other examples of where this type of interference has caused large sand migration issues all over the country. It’s not carbon dioxide causing the trouble.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 11:33am

Yeah, totally man made bar made there, but regardless re population increase compared to carbon increase.

The ocean takes 1/3 of the carbon emitted by humans in a process called carbon sequestration.

glassworks.san-elanda's picture
glassworks.san-elanda's picture
glassworks.san-... commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 10:48pm

spot on old mate
another blow inn cashing inn on the noosa money tree

rooftop's picture
rooftop's picture
rooftop commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 3:21pm

Not that you meant it that way, Phil, but IMO the IPCC's reports and others like it are alarming, not alarmist.

Big difference.

Eugene Green's picture
Eugene Green's picture
Eugene Green commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 3:31pm

Wouldn’t It make more sense to measure for possible sea level change on beaches without a sandy shore?
Noosa is a lovely spot to live and “work” though.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 4:18pm

Says Javier :” Managing the risk requires investment in measurement, monitoring and modelling to enable short-term response and long-term planning.”

Sounds like Javier wants people to invest in him flying his drone over the beach for the next 50 years .

And Phil Jarratt is so concerned about climate change that he was seriously considering the idea of dropping his Noosa Surf Festival , which encourages 1000s of people to fly around the world , spewing jet fuel , just so he can promote a town which is already so overwhelmed by tourists that the local council is going to ban them from entering ....luckily he realised that the annual nostalgic piss up was too important to forgo for the sake of the planet.

Phil Jarratt's picture
Phil Jarratt's picture
Phil Jarratt commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 5:20pm

"...his Noosa Surf Festival..."
Keep up Blowie. It hasn't been mine for several years and my family severed its connection with the NFS in 2018. But the point you make is pretty silly. Surfers will jump on planes and go surfing, piss up or no piss up, hopefully at least kicking in for a few carbon credits when they do.

Phil Jarratt

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 5:53pm

My apologies for the slight then.

Disagree with the opinion that surfers would’ve flown internationally to Noosa without the festival though, particularly after I enjoyed reading your tale of coercing an uninspired Mickey Dora to do exactly that at some personal expense.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 10:43am

Noosa should never have been developed on a sand spit it is a disaster waiting to happen with or without climate change. It is a moving landform, water 2 sides and a bit of sand in the middle.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 4:55pm

I hope that guy post again that pointed out, sea water is nowhere near acidic.

I have to admit even i was sucked into thinking the oceans where going to possibly be acidic one day, and had this picture of not being able to surf as my skin would be burning or at least my eyes.

Acid is the lower end of the scale the lower 0-1 is very acidic like battery acid etc.

Rain water is about 5.6

A healthy lake is 6.5

Pure water 7

Sea water 7.5 to 8.4

Terminal's picture
Terminal's picture
Terminal commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 5:25pm

I think acidification refers to a drop in ocean pH relative to itself. I suspect the issue is that many marine species are adapted to a certain pH and when this shifts outside their tolerance then bye bye. Humans will be fine though, so no need to worry ourselves about it, carry on!

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 5:52pm

I think its more just acidification sounds dramatic and scary, while if they said a change in PH or falling PH levels doesn't play on emotion and fear as much.

Terminal's picture
Terminal's picture
Terminal commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 5:57pm

It is dramatic and scary if you're concerned about the species that will be affected by it. If not, then I suppose it's just those pesky scientists catastrophising again.

sirboonie's picture
sirboonie's picture
sirboonie commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 5:58pm

Probably true. People still seem pretty blasé over the fact the Great Barrier Reef is going to be a shadow of its former self in twenty years though

Logical's picture
Logical's picture
Logical commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 5:27pm

Funny when Julia Gillard jumped onto the Climate Change roadshow. She could not find a single climate or related scientist to be her spruker. So instead found Tim Flannery - a bone scientist.

But once scientist discovered how lucrative it is to spruk climate change, 99.99% of all scientists are now Climate Change preachers.

sirboonie's picture
sirboonie's picture
sirboonie commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 6:00pm

Still more lucrative to drop out of school and work in the mines though in most cases, wouldn’t you say..?

Smorto's picture
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Smorto commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 6:24pm

Agreed! Now if you are undertaking research that potentially yields climate change supporting results then the universities are throwing grants at you with very little peer review of your results.

Just have a look at James Cook Uni and this Sweedish woman's (Oona I think was her name) research on Lion fish and reef degradation. She was eventually found to have done things like take photos of two sides of one fish and claim it as two different samples in addition to claiming results that would have taken months longer to produce than the time she spent. All to support her narrative that human induced sea temperature warming was the cause of all of the reef's problems.

The uni lapped up her 'research' and published it without any real scrutiny. It wasn't until it was reviewed in detail by people outside the uni that the cracks appeared.

So you're right that these days if you are doing anything that might produce evidence of unnatural climate change then you wont have any issues finding a financial backer and you're unlikely to have any real scrutiny of your results.

sasareu's picture
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sasareu commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:27pm

Hi there,

If you haven't read "The Weather Makers" then you should.

Tim Flannery the "Mammologist" wrote it 14 years ago. In it he discusses; the burning of the amazon, reverting to savannah rather than tropical forest, the melting of the worlds sea ice and ice caps, the release of methane from the arctic tundra as it thaws, the acidification of sea water and sea level rise amongst other things. All primary consequences of human caused climate change and all currently being reported in the popular media.

Gillard's choice was spot on.

Flannery is a brilliant mind and his books are not only full of intelligible information but are hilarious to boot. If you get into him then you have to read "Throwem Way Leg" about his time in Papua New Guinea studying bones!

The next best author is Jarrod Diamond, delves deeper in his writing but a tad drier to read, either way incredibly informative. Diamonds core field is anthropology.

Both these "great minds of our age" are astute observers and clued into current scientific issues and really there is no greater issue at present nor will there be for the foreseeable future other than climate change.

So it's not that scientists are jumping on the band wagon but rather they are trying their best to inform the general public of the impending catastrophe our great grand children will have to face.

Hope you pickup one of these books and happy reading.

Feralkook's picture
Feralkook's picture
Feralkook commented Saturday, 5 Oct 2019 at 3:28pm

Flannery is an alarmist and uses "Fear" like the rest of his ilk to make a point. Fear generates funding. He was bought in by Gillard to make comment and "predict" things that could affect billions of dollars of revenue and business in this country. Here some examples of those predictions which most are familiar with.
In 2004 Flannery said:
“I think there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis. It’s whole primary production is in dire straits and the eastern states are only 30 years behind.” Perth is doing fine and producing well and people are not leaving in a hurry.

2007 " So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems" he then went on to say “Brisbane and Adelaide – home to a combined total of three million people – could run out of water by year’s end;”
Hilarious the man is a gifted comedian like you said.
Here are some of the dam levels for QLD for this afternoon. .
Whilst Wivenhoe dam is at 50% there are specific reasons for that due to works that are going on.
Wappa 4, 699 ML 100.1% 12:53pm 05/10/2019 Dam is spilling.
Enoggera 4, 367 ML 95.6% 12:00pm 05/10/2019
Lake Macdonald 7, 555 ML 94.2% 12:33pm 05/10/2019
Little Nerang 6, 191 ML 92.3% 1:00pm 05/10/2019
Baroon Pocket 55, 419 ML 90.9% 12:00pm 05/10/2019
Hinze 277, 695 ML 89.4% 12:30pm 05/10/2019
Ewen Maddock 14, 727 ML 88.8% 12:00pm 05/10/2019
Borumba 40, 767 ML 88.6% 12:00pm 05/10/2019
Wivenhoe 600, 450 ML 51.5% 1:20pm 05/10/2019

Then there was his Cyclone prediction "n 2015 Flannery said:
“Sadly we’re more likely to see them more frequently in the future.”.
No data to back that claim up even though it existed and current BOM data shows a reduction in cyclones both severe and non severe from 1970 to 2017.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
It is not unreasonable to expect a "highly intelligent" and "brilliant mind" to demonstrate some common dog, not fear which is all this is.
Then in 2008 he backed alarmist claims the Arctic would be "Ice free" in five years.
Ice is there still.
Last but not least this gem claiming hot rocks in SA “potentially have enough embedded energy in them to run Australia’s economy for the best part of a century”, and “the technology to extract that energy … is relatively straightforward”. Really, well how did that work out for the Australian people especially in SA where they have the highest power prices in the country and batteries.
That gem cost taxpayers $90m for a test plant based on what this bloke said, it spectacularly failed and the project was abandoned.
How many hospital beds and other essential services could that money have been used more effectively for at the time if Rudd et al had not been stupidly sucked in to the Flannery alarmist message.
No mate you are wrong, this man might have some book smarts, but what has he actually contributed to this country, what has he developed and implemented that benefits this country, it's economy and it's people. Nothing except bad advice.

glassworks.san-elanda's picture
glassworks.san-elanda's picture
glassworks.san-... commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 10:51pm

tick

Laurie McGinness's picture
Laurie McGinness's picture
Laurie McGinness commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 6:01pm

Yep, the idiocracy remains in full swing here! Research skills? Nil. Dunning-Krueger in full flight!

IPCC predicts 0.4-0.8m by the end of the century so the Sydney data is pretty much in line....... but the usual suspects couldn't give a toss about reality, it's ideology all the way down. See you (a long time) later!

jelli's picture
jelli's picture
jelli commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 6:02pm

Indo, the ocean is certainly alkaline or basic. The pH scale is logarithmic which produces non linear graphs such as exponential ( values - pH- change rapidly with a small change in the active variable - active hydrogen ions -). Our skin being in danger would be catastrophic but is really a long way off I believe. More importantly is that as the pH decreases ( even slightly ) it makes it more difficult for gastropods, tube worms, corals and other marine life to fix carbonate into their shells/casings. Instead, the increased activity of hydrogen ions attaches to the carbonate in solution to form carbonic acid. Diffusion of CO2 between the atmosphere and ocean is driven by concentration and temperature mainly. The chemistry is complex and there are certainly more learned people than myself. Cheers.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 6:22pm

Lozza. good to see you back.

zephatalien's picture
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zephatalien commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 6:48pm

Dunning Krueger effect indeed. Jelli is on certainly on the money... worrisome for us all is the plight of phytoplankton in an acidifying ocean. Phytoplankton are the lungs of the planet responsible for ~2/3 of the worlds photosynthesis, despite the misnomer of the Amazon providing the bulk of that ecological service.

Smorto, you describe the scientific process. Most of the worlds greatest discoveries, certainly in physics, came through dogged pursuit of ideology and subsequent rebuttals.

Logical- Tim Flannery is a extremely well respected scientist, with numerous published papers in a wide ranging fields of expertise. You would be hard pressed to find a more distinguished scientist who has campaigned as hard as Tim for the environment, for us. I found your arrogance inspiring enough to, after years, sign in to this crap and defend him!

Although I do agree this research project seems self-serving, the potential for automated monitoring of this type is, as in many environmental monitoring projects, exciting.

Zeph

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 6:57pm

If the rate of sea level increase is parabolic, why is the trend line consistent and consistently straight ?

Sydney data forecast from the trend line as shown indicates an increase of 0.73mm/ year. Over 80 years this equates to a 58.4mm rise.

AKA 6cm rise by 2100.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:02pm

Jelli and Zeph, nice contributions.

Whaddya reckon Indo, does that info mean anything to you?

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:04pm

I have to (maybe) apologise as I mis-nterpreted and relied specifically on an article written by Joanne Nova a noted climate change skeptic. Basically a mate of mine who has a supposed inside track on council backroom machinations of which I won't say where, was having a whinge to me that his rates are supposedly poised to increase in addition to his insurance premiums due to his proximity to the water. He was the one that pointed out that Sydney Harbour had decreased 6cm in the last hundred or so years, when in fact it had increased by that much.

However, looking at that graph, I do have to say that the increase is quite linear based on appearance.

As I was the first to post, I have to come clean in regards to that.

BTW, this is probs the first post I've ever contributed re the climate change debate.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:09pm

No worries at all Zen and it made me check into the data as well. 

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:11pm

Can you address my query , Craig ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:19pm

Yeah the forecasts are exponential and 0.9m worst case ATM.

Here's Sydney's current projections with different scenarios and looks about right..

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:21pm

So when does the parabolic trend line kick in ?

Tomorrow?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:10pm

Real time Increased rates and insurance premiums based on unrealised forecasts for indeterminate future events are a piss-take money grab.

Nothing less.

johnruciak's picture
johnruciak's picture
johnruciak commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 10:41am

It's a free market. Take your insurance business to a company who doesn't believe climate change is real and will offer you cheaper rates. If such an insurance company doesn't exist, there's your opportunity to start one.

ojackojacko's picture
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ojackojacko commented Wednesday, 9 Oct 2019 at 1:27pm

spot on jr

the insurance companies are the best informed bookmakers around, and have been betting on climate change for decades now

always amuses me how scientists are supposedly making up data to get rich (yeah - you can find examples of dodgy practitioners in every field if you look hard enough), while the fossil fuel industries would never make up shit to preserve their business practices and profits

where is the money?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 9 Oct 2019 at 1:35pm

Exactly, if it's all a hoax, who's even making any benefit from it, def not the ones pushing for change to the energy industry etc..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:26pm

Here you go Blowin..

Northern Beaches

Go through here.. https://coastadapt.com.au/sea-level-rise-information-all-australian-coas...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:47pm

How come the graph at the top of this page says 6cm rise in 124 years , yet this graph shows that the Northern beaches have risen an average of 25 cm in 25 years ?

Ten times the rate of sea level rise of Sydney Harbour and a 25 cm differential from inner harbour to the Pacific Ocean ? According to this the Mouth of Sydney harbour must look like the horizontal falls in the Kimberly.

Are you saying that the sea level at Manly has risen 25 cm since 1995 ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 8:47pm

Good question and I'm not sure on that, will try and find some time to dig deeper.

glassworks.san-elanda's picture
glassworks.san-elanda's picture
glassworks.san-... commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 10:56pm

that is pure adulterated b/s

greg-n.williams's picture
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greg-n.williams commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 7:59pm

We are a resourceful species. The next 2 generations+ are the ones who will be dealing with the excesses of the previous generations who instigated the industrial & technology revolutions which unwittingly sent us down this path to a climate change which will impact every species on the planet. Our biggest problem is overpopulation which is driving the rapid increase in CO2 emissions. Too many people equals overuse of fossil fuels & natural resources to increase food production & reach a desired lifestyle evident in most first world nations. We have the technology to eventually win this battle however the world needs to change in order to do this. A smaller population with different values must happen in the near future in order for our future generations to survive. A shift in the way we think about our future needs to happen,economies & GDP will mean very little if we are struggling to feed ourselves & survive diseases created by the greed of a minority.

channel-bottom's picture
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channel-bottom commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 8:04pm

I would have thought Main Beach Noosa wasn’t the best beach to document.

It has full time nourishment from the river mouth, and I think it’s a man made beach anyway. I think the river mouth was originally at the base of First Point and main beach/Hastings St was created when the area was developed.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 8:15pm

I probably shouldn’t read this so close to bedtime. The shorebreak sounds like it’s advancing aggressively . Might give me nightmares.

Wait ....is it just me or does it sound like it’s already getting closer ?

PS Just checked the forecasted inundation for around here . Good news ! The charted rise of the sea will prevent the council from letting it get built out. I’ve been a bit worried about possible development on the Bush across the road , luckily it looks like it’ll be underwater at high tide in the future.

Now I’ve just got to worry about Seasteaders and pirates.

keano's picture
keano's picture
keano commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 9:25pm

Hey blowin is your twitter picture an egg?

zephatalien's picture
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zephatalien commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 9:30pm

Greg-n
Apologies for the wandering but when I start typing often shit just flows out..

Previously, I held a view similar to yours.

Through myriads of turbulence, fear and loathing I found escape from the self loathing at my role in the group organism 'humans'. Escape, as is usually the case, came in the form of learning. I started learning about space, in a big way. I devoured the publications and presentations of some of the worlds eminent physicists, cosmologists, philosophers and psychologists.

For me, since I was a kid, the argument was always clear: humans are devastating the planet and bringing about the latest epoch the 'anthropocene'. I felt we needed to radically change what we are doing to save the planet! Now I feel... not so much.

Some of you know a bit of my story but for years I stagnated in the desert, the best sand I knew to put my head in. I was crushed fighting vs. the SA gov. and Surfing SA, the Kangaroo Island 6 star event. I was brutalised studying environmental science and the data contained within that degree. I suffered under the blade of PTSD, sycophants and alienation. Whilst wallowing in such reverie is somewhat useless and completely unproductive, I'm thankful for the path.

I cannot pin point when it happened but space-X and JRE had a lot to do with it. Regardless, I'm not so concerned for the planet now, as one might expect a somewhat seasoned activist/greeny.

Very, very simply: The universe or rather the observable universe is big... really big.

The CMB shows us the first photons, some 13.5 billion years old, red shifted all the way to microwaves. Consider an observable universe at a scale of 50 billion light years (the milky way with a couple hundred billion star systems is 100-150 thousand light years across for a frame of reference). Consider that we now know almost every one of those couple hundred billion stars in just our speck of a galaxy has a planetary system associated to it. Our star 'Sol' is only around 4.5 billion years old, with the oldest forms of life appearing somewhere between 4.2 to 4 billion years ago. The rate of adaptation was slow... was slow. The Cambrian explosion, around 500 million years ago, was when multi cellular life first appeared. Two hundred years ago there were no cars, 100 years ago, there were barely any planes, 10 years ago there were no reusable orbit-capable rockets. Anyway, point being is that it would be simply foolish to assume we know wtf is going on. My hypothesis is we are simply a step towards electronic based general intelligence and mostly, we have nfi.

Many examples of this occur in 'nature' all the time. One most pointed might be; grub to chrysalis to butterfly. Is the grub aware it will be completely destroyed when it creates its chrysalis? More, did single cells who adapted to change know that eventually there would be humans or moreover, mobile phones as a result of that adaptation?

Our predicament, if termed as such, seems to be we are adapting at a rate that far outpaces our individual or collective ability to understand or even direct it. I'm getting over typing and know I'm probably not making much sense, so the last hurrah.

If you've never heard of the 'Younger Dryas impact hypothesis' it's really worth an investigation. Point is, were are doomed. There is a 100% likelihood life will be completely destroyed on Earth, down to a molecular level. If not before, we have at most a couple hundred million years left of atmosphere on Earth, with Sol most probably eventually ripping Earth apart with tidal forces. Might sound like a lot of time but we face a multitude of global resets daily, atmospheric impacts being quite high on the probability scale. If there is a purpose, it might be something like gtfo of your gravity well!

One of the reasons i'm now studying psychological science and sociology is because of the rabbit hole of consciousness that I found fascinated me perhaps more than anything else. The role of abstract thought, language and indeed life in a universe as weird and inexplicable as this is simply... well, it's not simple at all. Despite the scale of the universe, the argument it is 'probably' simulated is very interesting. That argument sounds something like: Our simulations (physics or even video games) are at a level, if you extrapolate out Moores law you get to some point in the future (barring annihilation) where the level of our simulations are indistinguishable from the 'real' universe. At such a time, creating simulations will be much easier than creating universes and as such, the probability we are now actually inside a simulation is higher than the opposite, that we are not.

This is different from the 'many worlds theory' which simply describes the hypothesis that behind, or subsequent to, any change in the physical state of the universe is a creation of another reality, another universe. Much harder to explain here but despite how crackpot that might sound, quantum physics is the most accurate science we have and the many worlds theory is a seriously considered idea.

Eventually, I heard about the power of entheogens in helping neural plasticity. Especially in the investigations of PTSD, entheogens are becoming recognised as powerful psychiatric tools. The role of DMT specifically, in shaping my consciousness, was an incredible tool. My brief experience laid bare my consciousness to a reality which exists not in the mind of men but as a part of the observable universe. Now I'm really over typing and sure that I've lost most of you... headlong I say! The Germans especially but the Japanese and tbh probably most nations are experimenting with DMT realm exploration. It seems to be that this (endogenous) compound allows the transmission of consciousness through space and time. Yeah, far out eh! As esoteric and crackpot as that might sound, there are 'psychonauts' out there exploring the DMT realm and it seems humans aren't the only ones out there exploring.

Anyway, regardless of the deep end, I don't see the role of humans as being stewards of planet, rather I see humans as a brief experience of consciousness on the way to learning itself. Something like that. This isn't a nihilistic view or one of expunged responsibility. We should probably be more sustainable, caring towards the planet, population should be controlled... ask Christopher Langan about where humans should focus efforts and he talks about eugenics! Yeeek eugenics but this is my point, we have nfi wtf life is about, that we are destroying old systems of life on this planet is true, that we are creating unlivable habitats is true... where we are headed and what the universe is about is completely and utterly unknown.

We are nature. Our technology, created chemicals, pollution and exponential abilities are a result of almost 14 billion years of expansion, discernment and well... who the fuck knows! Point is, the vision for me strongly aligns with Mr. Musk's. GTFO of this gravity well is gonna be a good thing for life, we should be headed that way, not hugging trees and lamenting the doomed planet. Also, space is unifying... especially in the face of cataclysm. What would bring the nations of humans together more strongly and efficiently than the threat of imminent annihilation. So how far we looking? 100 years, 1000 years 10 000 years... maybe a million years. The probability of planetary life ending events taking place within those time frames differs, once you start getting past 10 million years the probabilities are stupidly terrifying.

Mostly...

-Don't Panic-

:)

Zeph

keano's picture
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keano commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 9:37pm

42

Stupot's picture
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Stupot commented Friday, 4 Oct 2019 at 7:26pm

43, you forgot to factor in life expectancy is also increasing therefore the meaning of life is increasing exponentially...

Unemployment isn't working...

keano's picture
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keano commented Friday, 4 Oct 2019 at 7:42pm

That would make the question almost impossible to get wrong...maybe the universe is trying to make it easier....but humans are just getting stupider

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davetherave commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 9:25am

Zen, thanks for sharing. My understanding is that we are indeed consciousness , and we as humans are consciousness experiencing itself. Hence, we are one, but we are many, unlimited in fact. It is indeed a simulation when in a physical virtual reality and all experience is possible from consciousness destroying itself or being totally unloving towards all of itself to consciousness totally loving itself. We as pieces of consciousness have been given free will to create whatever simulations we can think, say and do. However, all creations were created by the creator, just using a label here, out of a love of itself that desired to experience itself. So consciousness will always cycle back to a full loving of itself and then another big bang happens so it can have fun experiencing all of itself again. That's why it is important to be kind and treat all aspects of life on Planet Earth, 3d. Change is inevitable and flowing with change makes it easier for any aspect of consciousness on it's evolution back to totally loving itself, then all self. Bare in mind we can have more than one go in this simulation so there is no need to worry, but being loving in all circumstances makes it easier for you and in fact, creates and raises the frequency vibration of the simulation so that a good vibe synchronization occurs to you and all those you interact with. Sea levels will rise, but adaptation is an inbuilt pillar of this simulation.

davetherave

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zephatalien commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 5:39pm

Totally left the beaten track but ferkit... As I understand it, and I don't; cognitive, evolutionary psychology describe and rely on the lack of freewill. The a priori idea stemming from the total lack of self control over pre-natal development. At what point did the code of your parents DNA give away control to your consciousness? It most probably never did and free will is an illusion of consciousness, nice idea and definitely cements culpability into our society.

Not far enough along in this degree to expand or make clear this point.

Zeph

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 6:16pm

Both of you, legendary posts, well done.

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davetherave commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 8:28pm

Explore it brother or sister if it calls you. I am highly envious of your name as it sounds like a Jupiter's Ascending moniker. U lucky bugger. Free will, yes, only one will, that which is, that experiences that which is. It doesn't give a , swear word insert, but how good and interesting is our discussions on Swellnet. I am very thankful. To the Whompers I will be in cairns and I know you will be the stoke.

davetherave

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morg commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 9:44pm

At the risk of mentioning the inferior competition, in its early days as part of it’s spruiking its environmental beneficial PR, Coastalwatch used to promote itself as monitoring and recording the sea and sand level data of the beach coastlines for the Councils and scientists. If there was any truth in it, the likes of Javier might be able to use it. Apologies if I’ve unwittingly referred to that which shall not be named.

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DBEARINDARE commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 10:34pm

I am not here to poo poo any theories, but have you ever noticed when paddling down a river or similar. Then sometimes you look up at the shear beauty of the rock walls that bank the said river, that go up as high as buggery. Water was up that high at some stage. That can happen again I believe.
The earth has been around for a while longer than we have, and I think mother nature will most likely do us in before we do it to ourselves. Although we are giving it a good go with some of our silly decisions with what seems at times the lack of concern to the climate factor and what we do with it. Just putting it out there.

DBEARINDARE

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palmlife commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 1:50pm

I think you may not understand how erosion works.

DBEARINDARE's picture
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DBEARINDARE commented Wednesday, 2 Oct 2019 at 10:45pm

Oh. And another note.
The next time you are walking around a rocky headland. Take the time to look for old shellfish that may attached to those rocks. There is a good chance that they attach themselves at the halfway of the tide point.
Now if you notice those things above your head height. That was at some time. The half tide point.
Ahh... now that's got you thinking.

DBEARINDARE

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zephatalien commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 12:09am

Well... Yes, absolutely! The speculation of time looking at exposed strata with a 'geological' timescale in mind is certainly wonderful. Cabarita beach shows examples of the major events from Gondwana to present... in the space of about 300 metres.
That's somewhat special but the tale of the fluid movement of rock is there like a book waiting to be read for those with eyes and a scratch test ;). Even more specifically to your pondering and perhaps my point, the Younger Dryas (YDP) is a geological event that happened at the 'dawn' of 'modern' civilisation, some 13,000 years ago. This was the time archaeologists used to say agricultural practice and specialist roles became a thing.

Why I pulled it into the thread was because of the striking sea level rise associated with the YDP. We're talking ~120 metres of change, when apparently some humans were developing things like civilisation. The impact hypothesis isn't firm and is somewhat contested. Kennett et al. (2009)(2015) build on Firestone et al. (2007) providing evidence of cosmological phenomena associated with the YDP, mostly based on geological evidence.

For me, it makes a lot of sense. So much of the ancient world never made sense to me, including ancient Australia. Introducing an impact theory brings so much together and while i'm conscious of my bias I strongly espouse people to have a look at it objectively.

What if there was cataclysmic sea level change in our recent past? Was Plato onto it with Atlantis? Would modern civilisation survive either massive coronal mass ejection or large comet air-bursts? What would survivors do and would they seek to enshrine their knowledge of technology in the hunter gatherers we still have today who would prosper or at least survive?

Anyway, just a perspective on the whole 'surfer counts sand' puff piece above.

Zeph

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 6:25pm

Zeph you are absolutely onto it - if you want a catastrophe, look at sea levels from about 13,000 years ago to 10,000 years ago. Afterward, compare that timeframe to the enormous amount of extinctions.

More recently there were impacts causing 1000ft high waves striking Madagascar covered here in Swellnet threads, about 4400 years ago IIRC.

And now, for dramatic effect:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idf6N_wvvfY

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 1:18am

The strange thing is that I once strolled along the towering base of an ancient reef and admired the dramatic remnants of its long calcified inhabitants , when I arrived at the shore bound conclusion to this captivating stroll there was a single individual sitting in the sun and reading a book about the unexplored limitations of the human mind .

He’d just spent all morning getting barreled and as I was getting changed into my wetsuit to go and do likewise he spun me a tale of his experiences with DMT and recommended I pursue its benefits.

We had a pleasant chat , idling in that kindly sunshine as we watched pretty tubes rifle unmolested across the reef. Then I went surfing and never saw Zephatalien again .

True story.

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Spuddups commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 6:05am

An internet discussion on climate change that hasn't devolved into a slagging match. This forum never fails to surprise me.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 7:11am

There was a brief flicker of bitchiness .

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ocir commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 7:14am

climate of this planet has never been static
has human induced global warming saved us from an ice age?
when leaders stop going on junkets and start using skype maybe the people will listen
just wondering

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fishnsurf commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 8:20am

The only thing that is clear about all this , is that when we all finally spring into action . I can guarantee it won't be the multinationals that have made billions of dollars that will be paying to implement changes. I t will be the over taxed consumer paying top dollar for the fuel damaging it in the first place that will foot the bill. its a win win for the rich regardless of which way it goes.

Surf ingredients

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Groper commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 8:36am

Doesn't really matter if your a climate change believer or denier, the proposed mitigation measures address a range of other known threats to the health of our planet and it's inhabitants.

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zenagain commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 8:45am

That's kind of where I sit. Man made climate change may or may not be real however, the current rate of burn, consume, dispose I reckon is unsustainable. As a species we treat the world like a toilet and further down the track, the results could be catastrophic. I believe in first taking personal responsibility and doing your best to minimise your footprint.

I suppose my end goal is to leave the earth better than I came into it.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 11:33am

Im with Zen but also add a degree of skepticism is healthy, especially when politics and money muddys the waters like it now is

Also change is never all negative there is always positives and negatives.

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Stupot commented Friday, 4 Oct 2019 at 7:35pm

I personally focus on the positives. NZ might just get warm enough for me to go home and retire in 20 years and those slabs that were only surfed on the king tides will be just right with another metre or so on them...

Unemployment isn't working...

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trevortube commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 9:26am

Does anybody have an opinion on HAARP and its impact on global warming and weather modification. It obviously extends further, but i do find the heating of the ionisphere by this cold war byproduct in this isolated labratory, concerning. Recognising population growth etc, i ponder if it accelerates the cycle.
It feels to be compounding.
Some may be well versed here.
Just putting it out there.

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pcrisp commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 10:19am

It was meant for harm- rumour is Qanon now has control from the CIA and the Chinese ports & bases in Bahamas have been eliminated- DYOR

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Terminal commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 4:08pm

Yeah it's my second favourite conspiracy theory, behind David Icke's lizard people (that one is hands-down the best). Seriously though, if HAARP actually did what the conspiracy theorists claim it does, couldn't they use it to counter global warming? hmmmm….

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Feralkook commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 12:16pm

HAARP was shut down a long time ago, however we can not discount the potential short and long term effects of heating the water vapour in the ionosphere and this is where the "alarmist's" have it wrong, We can not just focus on CO2 water vapour is absolutely critical in the equation of temperature yet never rates a mention.
The other item of real concern are the efforts to "Geoengineer" the planet, The idiots doing that in the US have NFI the damage that can cause or the long term consequences and I would not be suprised to see a correllation between these activities and severe weather in the USA.
There are proponents for this type of intereference, Bill Gates is one of them but when you look at who they are, none have any atmospheric scientific background.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/geoengineering-the-risky-fix-clim...
There stupidity knows no bounds, we know the climate is cyclic, pollution is one of the main problems, CO2 is necessary for life but they want to do something about that and nothing else. So what do they say, fuck it let's spray some more man made shit in the atmosphere and remove the amount of sunlight reaching the earth.

"Technologies include a range of efforts to restrict solar radiation from reaching the lower atmosphere, including spraying aerosols of sulphate particles into the stratosphere, and refreezing rapidly warming parts of the polar regions by deploying tall ships to pump salt particles from the ocean into polar clouds to make them brighter."
http://www.geoengineeringmonitor.org/2018/04/marine-cloud-brightening-pr...
Think about that for just one minute, pump sulphate into what they claim is an eco system in crisis, and pump salt from the ocean into clouds over the polar regions and make them whiter. The latter being the most stupid thing I have ever read.
No thought to the long term cost to the planet or human race if they get it all wrong.
The only winners in this are the researchers and big business, the losers will be the earths population when they interfere too much in something by their own admission they know little about.
So here is one of those winners, this bloke wants to take CO2 out of the atmosphere.
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/06/07/extracting-c...
Human's in high places have become arrogant and science has become a one sided affair and the rest of the population are going to pay for the arrogance and ignorance of the few.

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Craig commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 9:55am

Blowin, I looked deeper into the seal level ride data and there are variations across the globe and locally.

Some great data and obs here which I'll quote..

"From 1900 to 2010, estimates of the rate of sea-level rise vary between about 1.4 and 1.9 mm/yr (Hay et al. 2015 Rhein et al. 2013). Satellite altimeters provide the first nearly global observations of sea level and indicate a rate of rise that is generally accepted to be 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr (Masters et al. 2012), although a recent comparison with tide gauges suggest that the rate could be between 2.6 ± 0.4 mm/yr and 2.9 ± 0.4 mm/yr, with a small (but not significant) acceleration from 1993 to present (Watson et al. 2015). The satellite data indicates a non-uniform rate of rise from 1993 to 2015, with rates of rise to the north of Australia several times the global average and near zero rates in the eastern equatorial Pacific (for example, see Rhein et al. 2013).

Sea levels along most sections of the Australian coastline have been observed since 1966 (Figure 2). There is significant interannual variability, much of which is related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI; White et al. 2014) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (Zhang and Church 2012). White et al. (2014) removed the variability directly related to the SOI. For the periods 1966 to 2009 and 1993 to 2009, White et al. estimated the average trends of relative sea level around the coastline was 1.4 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 and 4.5 ± 1.3 mm yr−1 (with the largest rates in this latter period on the north and west coasts of Australia), which become 1.6 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm yr−1 after the signal directly correlated with ENSO was removed. After further correcting for GIA and changes in atmospheric pressure (Figure 3), they found the corresponding trends were 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 and 3.1 ± 0.6 mm yr−1 , with the average close to the global-mean trends, including the 10 | increased rate of rise since the early 1990s. For Australia’s two longest records (Fremantle and Sydney), they found both records showing larger rates of rise between 1920 and 1950, relatively stable mean sea levels between 1960 and 1990 and an increased rate of rise from the early 1990s."

Correlation with the SOI (El Nino/La Nina is great)..


And global data..


In summary global rates are rising between 3-3.2mm/year and have accelerated since the early 1990's.

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crabs commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 7:06pm

BTW Craig you can access monthly summaries from the Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/projects/abslmp/reports.shtml

Latest rates from start of each record to August 2019 below
(mm/yr)
Cocos Island Sep 1992 7.5 (mm/yr)
Groote Eylandt Sep 1993 4.4 (mm/yr)
Darwin May 1990 5.9 (mm/yr)
Broome Nov 1991 5.9 (mm/yr)
Hillarys 3 Nov 1991 6.5 (mm/yr)
Esperance Mar 1992 4.5 (mm/yr)
Thevenard3 Mar 1992 4.1 (mm/yr)
Port Stanvac2 Jun 1992 4.7 (mm/yr)
Portland Jul 1991 3.0 (mm/yr)
Lorne Jan 1993 2.6 (mm/yr)
Stony Point Jan 1993 2.7 (mm/yr)
Burnie Sep 1992 3.1 (mm/yr)
Spring Bay May 1991 3.6 (mm/yr)
Port Kembla Jul 1991 3.5 (mm/yr)
Rosslyn Bay Jun 1992 5.0 (mm/yr)
Cape Ferguson sept 1991 4.7 (mm/yr)
Thursday Island May 2015 10.4 (mm/yr)

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Craig commented Wednesday, 9 Oct 2019 at 1:36pm

Awesome, thanks crabs.

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pcrisp commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 10:09am

anyone want to give away their waterfront- happy to buy it before Al does https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/featured-columnists/celebrity-homes...

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Westofthelake commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 10:35am

Oi oi oi - from today's Newy Herald

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Craig commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 10:37am

'Bout right! Wow.

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Terminal commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 11:09am

Bang on!

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Blowin commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 12:38pm

Westof - You realise that you’re the Kangaroo dont you ?

No point grandstanding about the lassitude of others on the environmental front on this thread, then going onto the Coolum wave tub thread and cheering on the construction of an entirely unnecessary piece of energy sucking infrastructure.

Fixing the “ climate emergency “ is going to take a bit more than just sanctimonious posturing. Sooner or later it’s going to get through some thick heads that talk is cheap and it’s actions that count.

Stop eating meat.
Don’t encourage the construction of wave pools a few kilometres from a surf beach.
Use less .
Grow your own fruit and veggies.

Or don’t , I don’t give a fuck , but don’t just sit on your arse and point the finger at others. It’s below you !

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Westofthelake commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 1:31pm

"No point grandstanding about the lassitude of others on the environmental front on this thread, then going onto the Coolum wave tub thread and cheering on the construction of an entirely unnecessary piece of energy sucking infrastructure"

"Cheering on"....errr ok ...not sure how you came to that conclusion.

As for "finger pointing", ha! Pot, kettle, black.

Carry on.

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zenagain commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 10:46am

As we are most aware of the moons affect on tide, I'll ask the question to our more knowledgable contributors- Is there or could there be any correlation with the measured increase in sea levels corresponding with the moons proximity to the earth? What I'm trying to say is that over the last few decades, the moon is at its closest to earth hence the last couple of years we've been witnessing these super moons when the full moon rolls around monthly. Does the moons gravitational pull have an affect on sea levels and is it possible we can draw some comparison from the graphs that show a gradual but slight linear increase year on year as the moon has drawn closer to the earth. Conversely, is it possible we could see a gradual decrease in sea levels over the same time period as the moon moves away from the earth? I don't think i've read anything that comes to mind that takes the moon and gravity into account when discussing changes in sea level.

Just a thought bubble.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

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Craig commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 10:48am

Yeah they take all those factors into account and also the El Nino/La Nina cycles and other influences that effect sea level. Filter it out to get a true trend.

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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 11:37am

Forgot what its called but there is a difference, affected by some lunar cycle that goes from memory something like 19 years?

So even though sea levels may be rising every year, there will be periods where the tides heigh changes making the heights lower or higher.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 4:00pm

Here it is its called "lunar nodal cycle,"

Interesting read https://www.johnenglander.net/sea-level-rise-blog/sea-level-falling-unti...

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gavin007 commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 12:48pm

All the above is interesting, but it doesn't answer that one important question - what are rising sea levels gonna do to the surf?

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 4:02pm

We have had a discussion about this aspect https://www.swellnet.com/comment/212031

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 1:18pm

Cheers for the response, Craig

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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 2:39pm

Zephatalian that is some mighty fine work...deserves a reward
http://nrgeology.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-magma-chamber-under-cabarita.html

Part 1 (Beach Rock Spirals)
(Cabarita) NSR / Bogangar beach stone arrangements.
Likely the most the ancient recordings by Humans on & of our Beach timeline.
1965 Both Cudgen & Tyagarah (Stone Spirals) were removed by Sand Miners.
1989 These Stones were finally reset in Brunswick Valley Heritage Park in 1989
1990:Abstract by Elders: " Dreamtime north coast was populated by Yowies from the mountains who came down & drove off the Carpet snake Clans of feathered Serpent Traditions (Eelamarni) Little Hairies - Ngararakbal Githabal. This union of 3 ancient Australian reared peoples predates the 3 Brothers / Bundjalung arrival at last Glacial maximum."

The point being that these re: stones laid undisturbed on same beach as if yesterday.
https://stellawheildon.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/solstice08-double-spi...
Stella Starlore sees all this & more....(Original East Coast surf Historian-The Classics)
Stella unlocks many ancient climactic stories of east coast surf reserves
https://starlore.com.au/2014/08/19/aboriginal-spiral-lore-ngarakbal-gith...

Part 2 (Headland Fish Traps)
Next passage by tbb may very well be a swellnet exclusive but belongs to (Saltwater)
Cabarita (Bundjalung) fish traps are also still there for all to see as if only yesterday.
https://images.beachsafe.org.au/?src=https://www.surfguard.slsa.asn.au/S...

See: Beach accessible oval shape inside the Point cove.(Usually N/E facing alcoves).
The images are distorted as no one has attended to fish traps in hundreds of years.
Rock Pool style fish traps can also be seen at Hastings, Fingal & Burleigh Point.
Be patient in looking (Photos) etc. Post storms + Higher Tides will reveal more.

Rarely do aerial photos hit pay dirt..(tip) SLSA Photos are a good Aerial resource.
The photo tbb linked here didn't just appear after a year...all conditions must align!
Takes a while to train yer eyes but there are a few about! (Well worth the effort!)

Pause! This exercise proves 364 of 365 beach snapshots fail a true beach reveal.

Most interesting is that the traps likely flush both tides @ the mouth of creeks.
Meaning north east Heads mouthed creeks or lagoons for (shallow) harvesting.
It also tells us aborigines were 1st to selectively customise both wave & tidal power

The 2nd Fish Trap Style shown is the extended tiered arc. again accessed by beach.
Usually these Arc traps feature down the point or up the river a small way....
Different size / Height traps were for different tides & species.(re: 5,000 @ festivals)
Burleigh Point traps may also have baited ceremonial catch (Groper) for Jabreen!

Other N/E rock cut channel fish traps exist on Outcrop Platforms not shown here!

tbb is saying longest traditional record keeping is there for those who wish to see it.

Part 3 (Sea Orphans)
Nguthungulli Father of the world oversees all from most easterly Julian Rocks
Saltwater culture Island Bommies are both revered & or outcast "orphans".
All have human or animal story lines starting or ending around sea change events.
Greatest floods, break thrus & Sea resides are all recorded in many saltwater stories.

Recent discoveries reveal the possibility of a once continuous nsw border spit .
One long spit stretching from the border of B' Hds to the tip of Kgari.
Kombumerri record dugong in big swamp & Jellurgal lagoons ,creek & off the Point.
Break thrus 1930's BHds(Swamps filled)1896 Straddie 1790's Moreton > ? > Kgari

Quandamooka Dugongs -(Yowgurra) Moorgumpin (Moreton)< >Minjerribah (Straddie)
Records earlier break thru of the Spit into separate Islands + Flooding M Bay islands.
.
tbb continues coastline north to Sunshine Coast to iconic sea rise tale.
Tibrogargan calls to son Coonowrin to rescue mother Beerwah from rising seas.
Meanwhile grom Coochin busy surfing miles away.

Sunshine Coast aboriginal culture also references similar small to tall races as above.
However also another aboriginal race were seemingly outcast as if refugees...

Recent science may have unveiled their homeland but the sea consumed it 12,000 y/a
What seafolk call Barwon Bank/s was once a large Island off the Sunshine Coast.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-12-19/ancient-sand-dunes-preser...

So a once impossibly large Spit from B'Hds to Fraser Island has broken up & sunk.
Leaving aboriginals isolated, each with scarce resources for needed trad canoes.
Several new coastline canoe designs emerged from the sea change.
Canoes: Spooned, Bunted, Rolled, Fan Tailed, Stitched, Resined (To suit resource)
tbb: Mother of invention revealed long hidden epicentre for surf craft design.
Once the bland Sandy Strait was smashed up the surf tided more contoured coasts.

Did sinking of Barwon banks boost the sea rise the at Glass House Mountains?
Underwater landslides rose Tsunamis belting Moreton Island with in last century
https://www.frasercoastchronicle.com.au/news/pictures-reveal-future-pote...
We now know 12,000 y/o Noosa WSR lit up & Local Aborigines engaged the surf.
Outcast island climate refugees were the first unwelcomed seachange surfers.
History records an intermingling aimless nomansland tribe with penchant for bling.
History repeats?

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 7:14pm

epic post, learned a lot, well done tbb

Also story of Coolum, Ninderry and Mudjimba on Sunny coast

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Waldorf Salad commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 3:47pm
truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 8:58pm

Part 4
(Time & Tide)
Not just ships but early transit by Buggy was very much ruled by the sea.
1888 Southport to Tweed Border Mail Run (South) was timetabled with low tides.
Only at low tide could the Horse Team round Big & Little Burley Headlands.
Stop!
Surf Rafters + shooters + Horses & Buggy slotting Low Tide Point Slabs!
The return North trip was Chartered at any hour without Royal Mail timetable.
https://digitalbank.goldcoast.qld.gov.au/vital/access/manager/Repository...

Part 5
(Racing against the sands of time)
1910's Main Beach/Narrowneck WR (car/bike)Speed Trials >(re: Today's Race Stand)
https://digitalbank.goldcoast.qld.gov.au/vital/access/manager/Repository...
1930's Main Beach/Narrowneck WR Glider Club Flights > (re: Today's Kite Surf Hang)
Original local & Interstate Flights all ran on beaches & Broadwater to golf links.
Today's Broadwater has 3 Airstrips (Decreasing) + (10 >) Chopper Pads...increasing.

(Back to the Future)The need for speed on our Beachfronts is only revving up.
2013 Spit/Mainbeach - Supercar vs Stunt Plane vs Chopper relive the golden age.
https://www.autoblog.com/2013/10/24/red-bull-plane-v8-supercar-beach-rac...

2018 Magic Millions Beach Gallop...( Note Horses were banned here since 1947)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLul5ijtC44

To think this is completely in keeping with former beach use of the day!
Open speed limit records are repeatedly broken for Beachfront [M1]
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/when-to-see-raafs-gc600-flypas...
Downunder Defence Pilot breaks sound barrier to record rare reverse Polarity.
Dutto clever defence training vid detours Boat People back out to sea...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbPg_21mW1c
Oz finest showpiece defence vid is back 2 front..($hh!) Out smarting the enemy!
Airforce [1] to Surfers' Metermaids.."Could you girls fling us a flight map...Over!"

Fighters are armed! Should one clip a Hi -Rise...Kaboom! Bye Bye Gold Coast!
Who needs enemies...Just letting off some steam at the Beach Party!
No beach protection from Hoof, Tyre, Wing, Speed or weapons of mass destruction.
If you got money...then it's your Bombing Range as it was in (1966).
2018/19 Bulldoze a $20m Beach Volleyball court as Stars swan Jet skis in flags
Beach is theirs to destroy...never ours to protect! Never stop defending yer patch!

1988 Whiteshoe Dirigible Hanger doubles as Magic Millions Polo Field
https://digitalbank.goldcoast.qld.gov.au/vital/access/manager/Repository...

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PKsswellnet commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 8:43pm

Wow some people putting in serious effort on this topic. Thanks for the hard work Craig.

I've got an upside for surfers as a result of sea level rise. My local town is installing an artificial reef, help reduce erosion at town beach - remember artificial reefs the real option for mortals when it comes to more waves to go around. Don't get the attention they deserve cause the man can't make money outa them. Can,t wait to see how this one turns out, doesn't cost more than a skate park and how many of those things have shires put in!!!.

https://visitbunburygeographe.com.au/adventure-nature/airwave-the-worlds...

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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 9:10pm

PKsswellnet...yes! Almost as if some of us live thru it!...(Coincidentally)
Bunbury 'Airwave' Tender may involve a Surf Cam + Weather Station.(Shh!) re: Boss!
https://www.vendorpanel.com.au/publictenders.aspx?emcc=3014D8FC80C2

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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 3 Oct 2019 at 9:20pm

tbb those links, incredible
"clever waters" - finally the spiritual stuff is all clicking together, across peoples and times...
She has such great info
I'll have to read pt4 later

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bongsalot commented Saturday, 5 Oct 2019 at 6:08pm

Take all the plastics out of the ocean and the sea levels will drop.

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Spuddups commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 11:48am

It'd be interesting top work out how much. A fraction of a nanometre would be my guess.

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DaveM commented Monday, 7 Oct 2019 at 6:49pm

Hey Blowin....this dinkum bloke is just as confused as you....and all he gets is an arrow to science...peace

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sZznOdH4p4

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caml commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 12:09am

It's good how zeph logged in again

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stunet commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 9:50am

Agree. Best thing about this thread really.

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shoredump commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 10:16pm

Me 3. An interview would be a treat

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ShaneAbel commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 10:18am

I surf in Hobart and in the winter Park Beach is about 9c

Can someone tell me when the ocean is going to warm up so I can wear boardies at park instead of a five four wetsuit

Having surfed for over 40 years I think it’s getting colder but that could just be old age and grumpy mind

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crabs commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 6:24pm

You probably need to hit the east coast a bit more often:

https://climateextremes.org.au/marine-heatwaves-increase-around-tasmania/

"Average sea surface temperatures here have been rising at four times the global average rate and trends in marine heatwaves are showing significant increases in number. Southeastern Tasmania in particular showed strong trends, with marine heatwaves also extending deeper through the water column in recent years. These are having impacts on marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania’s east coast."

You can see a plot of the data here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14944-2

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 1:54pm

Randall Carlson: "Exploring the Landscapes of Catastrophe"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaHO00ISseY

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D-Rex commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 3:03pm

I'm going to get serious about rising sea levels when I can observe such at my local beaches - over 45 years of observation there is no evidence of a higher watermark.
PS I never cease to be amazed at the time some contributors put in to the forums. Do they not have a life?

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crabs commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 6:30pm

Beaches are perhaps the last place to look for SLR signatures- too much variability.
Look to places with no waves and reduced tides.

DaveM's picture
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DaveM commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 9:56pm

Best place to look is in your toilet once you have dumped a heap of your S%^&...youll get some measurable rise for sure....lol

So look where m8? no tide, no waves? are you kidding us....

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bongsalot commented Tuesday, 8 Oct 2019 at 4:15pm

zeph that guy that bashed the 19yr old chick at sinclair? great guy caml.

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zephatalien commented Wednesday, 9 Oct 2019 at 7:36pm

Nice ad hominem, though I can't say that I acted in a way I'm proud of that day. Bashing is a bit strong for dropping a camera on the rocks but I deserve condemnation for it and cop it sweet. If she hadn't lied in court about the extent of the damage, the repercussions may have been greater.

Zeph

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Distracted commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 11:59am

Story on the ABC today regarding massive dieoff of mangrove forests in the relatively pristine Gulf of Carpentaria due to climate change is bad news for local indigenous people and all the pro fishers in the Gulf.

It’s a worry to see how the changes can be magnified in specific landscapes and the degree of change is too fast for the local ecosystems to adjust.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-14/climate-change-mangrove-tradit...

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Feralkook commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 1:07pm

That die off was not a result of climate change, the die off was caused by a combination of extreme weather and a strong El Nino in 2015/16, during strong El Nino the sea level drops, in this case by nearly 20cm.
The dead trees are all still lying in the mangroves and as a result of that are preventing re growth.

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Distracted commented Monday, 14 Oct 2019 at 11:00pm

Dont know much about mangroves FK but where I’ve seen river bank works trying to encourage mangrove regrowth they trap flotsam and debris so the seeds get caught up and the seedlings can then establish. After 4 years of tidal action, storms etc clearing debris would think there would be plenty of opportunity for new seedlings to re-establish on the Gulf unless there were other issues?

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Waldorf Salad commented Wednesday, 16 Oct 2019 at 8:58am