Teahupoo Forecast: The drought is about to break

Stu Nettle picture
Stu Nettle (stunet)
Swellnet Analysis

After six years of underwhelming conditions the Great Billabong Pro Teahupoo Swell Drought looks set to break. Since we wrote the last forecast a number of things – all interconnected - have occurred in Tahiti's swell window.

The first is that the Long Wave Trough has moved into position exactly as forecast – just to the east of New Zealand. The second is that a low pressure system has currently formed south of New Zealand and will be steered northward by the Long Wave Trough toward Tahiti. This was also forecast in the last instalment, however the difference is that the low pressure system formed earlier than expected and the swell will subsequently arrive in Tahiti earlier than expected.

The swell will hit Tahiti on the 12th, two days before the Air Tahiti Nui Von Zipper Trials begin. We expect it will be around 6 feet +, however it should ease back to 3-5 feet when the trials begin on the 14th. Residual swell energy should see the surf maintain around 3-5 feet through to the end of the trials period on the 17th.

Holding the trials in small to mid-size Teahupoo may have a large bearing on the main event considering that the two wildcards from the trials face the two top seeds. Are Raimana and Manoa as dangerous when Chopes is more puppy than pitbull? How much will luck play a factor?

The third thing that has happened - and this is the big one - is that the Long Wave Trough is now forecast to stall in its current position. Last week we mentioned that this scenario would be the best chance for organisers to get swell in the first half of the waiting period and it appears they've been praying to the right gods.

The stalled Long Wave Trough is set to send a series of strong cold fronts out of the Southern Ocean producing a strong south-west groundswell that will exceed the size of the pre-trials swell. How big will it get? Certainly big enough to put the jitters in the Teahupoo virgins such as Julian Wilson and Alejo Muniz.

Forced to put a number on it we'll say 8 feet + and revisit it in the next update later this week. We'll also have the first instalment from The Outsider – who'll be covering the competition from the channel – posted this week. //CRAIG BROKENSHA & STU NETTLE

Comments

dan-burke's picture
dan-burke's picture
dan-burke Tuesday, 9 Aug 2011 at 7:49am

i was hoping you'd say that. YEEEEEOOOOWH! who will the outsider be caddying for? i guess we'll have to wait.

boxright's picture
boxright's picture
boxright Tuesday, 9 Aug 2011 at 10:45am

Bring the rain Swellnet! Bring the fucking rain!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 10 Aug 2011 at 2:34am

3-5ft looks to be a bit of undercall for the trials IMO. Swell period looks pretty good and so I'd be thinking as the swell hits the reef, wave heights should jack up more into the 5-6ft class.

As for the main event....well the biggest question is now, will they run the event in solid stuff or wait til it calms down to a mor sedate/paddle in size??

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 10 Aug 2011 at 2:45am

Come on Don, you're splitting hairs about the trials swell?

What this article is really about is that for the first time in 6 years the Billabong Pro will finally start with a bang with some very solid swell!

We watch with anticipation to see how the storm evolves over the coming days.

scoopmaster's picture
scoopmaster's picture
scoopmaster Wednesday, 10 Aug 2011 at 4:03am

the organisers would be crazy not to send the "TOP 44" out in a solid swell(8-10 foot assuming its fairly clean), if they claim to be the best in the world they should be able to surf in anything. If anyone doesn't have the balls to ride it, well they don't belong on the tour IMO

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 10 Aug 2011 at 4:33am

Seeing as Kieren Perrow is the surfers rep and Luke Egan is contest director it's a fair bet they would surf it.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 10 Aug 2011 at 9:25am

I'm not sure if 3ft vs 6ft is splitting hairs Craig, but we'll put that one to bed. Steve, surfing it and actually paddling into it are 2 different things. At 8-10ft, it would be a fairly tough ask to expect them to paddle into it.

We are all of course assuming that the winds are gonna be good when this swell arrives...that'll be the big X factor now.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 10 Aug 2011 at 9:37am

It's actually 5ft vs 6ft if you're gonna grab the upper figure Don.

Also, they've held Chopes in 8-10 foot surf before - plenty of times in fact. The second year it was a 'QS ('98 I think when Koby won and Conan was 'robbed') there would have been 12 foot sets coming through. Then there were a few times around the turn of the decade - after it had become a WT - when it got just as big. I can remember a shot of Louie, back when he was competing, trying to duckdive a line-up clearing 10-12ft beast. Think he went over backwards and scraped himself up.

8-10 foot is a no-brainer. As long as the winds are good, it'll run.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 10 Aug 2011 at 11:12am

Just checked the 00z GFS run and it's significantly downgraded the forecast now compared to the runs it was forecasting this morning. It's now more in line with EC. So yeah, some surf on the way, but I think the pros can now sleep a little easier knowing they won't have to paddle into 8-10ft chopes.

giuseppeisonhawksalvatoreo-o-hana-hannah's picture
giuseppeisonhawksalvatoreo-o-hana-hannah's picture
giuseppeisonhaw... Tuesday, 16 Aug 2011 at 11:31pm

"rawk tha dico tech" GO SURFERS!!