Rip Curl Pro to end with a bang

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

"Good things come to those who wait," said someone, somewhere. And while the organisers of the Rip Curl Pro have had little choice but to call lay days, they'll now get their good thing. The event is forecast to end with a bang.

Tomorrow will be another lay day with no new swell due until the afternoon by which time the wind will be onshore, but the last three days of the waiting period are looking very juicy.

A progression of back to back frontal systems moving in from under Western Australia and towards Victoria this week will produce building levels of west-southwest groundswell, culminating in a very significant south-west groundswell event Friday afternoon and Saturday morning - the last day of the waiting period.

The first two systems will project westerly gales through the Surf Coast's swell window, generating building levels of west-southwest groundswell through Thursday, from 3ft in the morning to a better 4ft through the afternoon. Conditions will be excellent all day with a persistent offshore west-northwest wind.

The third and last frontal system is forecast to deepen significantly while tracking towards Victoria, on top of the active sea state generated by the two storms before it. A low pressure centre will form and broaden, with a great fetch of storm-force winds expected to project through Victoria's western and then south-western swell windows.

With the storm moving on top an active sea state we'll see faster than normal wave growth, amplified further by a slight 'captured fetch' scenario resulting in a large, long-period south-west groundswell Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

The swell should build steadily Friday from 3-5ft in the morning to 8ft on the sets by later in the day at Bells and Winki, though conditions will be very tricky with strong westerly tending west-southwest winds.

Saturday looks excellent though with a slow drop in size from 6-8ft and favourable winds for the reefs most of the day. You can catch all the action live on our Rip Curl Pro event page.

16 day Torquay surf forecast graph
16 day Torquay WAMs

Comments

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 10:44am

Sweet! Less air reverses and more old school power craving hopefully, the Occy v Curren heat will now be one to watch for sure.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 12:38pm

Tip John John to be there at the end. Can only imagine his swoops ala
Margaret river at 8 foot Bells

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 12:42pm

VIPs, rejoice!!

I am the bone

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 12:48pm

Hope bohdi makes it to the finals in time ! " fifty year storm ".

sharkman's picture
sharkman's picture
sharkman commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 1:57pm

see it a bit different , swell looks way more south now , so 10' + on Friday , but winds look to be SW and strong, but Comp will go as they have to finish Friday...

x

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 2:02pm

Why do they have to finish Friday? Saturday is the final day and the cleanest and best with size.

sharkman's picture
sharkman's picture
sharkman commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 2:14pm

they are trying to finish by 2.00pm Saturday , they still have 47 heats to go , so at least 2 1/2 days of comp......Weds arvo swell starts to come up but winds go onshore , so they will need 3 days as I think they will have to extend heat times on Friday....winds Friday?

x

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 2:25pm

Yeah agree, just that in the post before you said they have to finish by Friday.

Winds Friday early W-W/SW but fresh to strong, swinging more W/SW to SW through the day though not overly strong (20kt or so).

sharkman's picture
sharkman's picture
sharkman commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 6:39pm

shit ,sorry I meant Saturday , as there is 47 hrs of comp to run , fuck we just had 3 days of comp and eliminated 4 men and 2 women........its going to be interesting to see heats all day Friday , strong SW winds with I think a 10' plus swell ( We will know more tomorrow?) , guys are scrambling for bigger boards , most just brought 6'2-3" stepups .....guys are actually getting quivers flown in!

x

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 6:45pm

how can you be on the world tour and not have a minigun step up board in your travel bag.... i dont understand.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 7:19pm

Maybe they'll do a Cloudbreak and call it off because it's too big and the pros don't have the right boards?

sharkman's picture
sharkman's picture
sharkman commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 7:57am

As we speak , boards are being shipped in from hawaii and SoCal , can't call it off as they must end on Sat.....winds look a bit better today , seems to me Friday looking like some very big waves especially in the afternoon , will they go to Winki as the wind will be a bit better.....but very hard for the Skis..or Bells boomers.....that is the question....??

x

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 8:15am

I was only being facetious Sharkman.

Hawaii and SoCal?

Aren't there enough step-ups or licencees to make Lost/CI's in Aus?

tux's picture
tux's picture
tux commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 11:50am

If they can't find a suitable step-up in Torquay we have a serious problem....in other news it still looks like a lake out there

oldcoastroad's picture
oldcoastroad's picture
oldcoastroad commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 11:45pm

jeez it would want to be a fast ship

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 2:48pm

Thursday will be overlapping heat-o-rama

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 4:47pm

Overlapping heats make it so much more enjoyable to watch - that’s one change I’d like ten to keep and see run right through the year.

knB

Tim.antonie's picture
Tim.antonie's picture
Tim.antonie commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 5:02pm

Hard to run overlapping heats at Bells bowl given size on Thursday but possible at Winki so may run Winki on Thursday given swell size and tide - Friday looks difficult in afternoon with high tide / swell size / wind direction - at least with a lot of south in swell it will be more consistent - great to see that Saturday will be epic

vicco11's picture
vicco11's picture
vicco11 commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 6:24pm

It will be interesting to see how they'll run it with 2 full days for the men and 1 full day for the women still to be run.

I'd personally like to see something along these lines:
Thursday - round 3 women, 8 heats of round 3 men, quarters women (they should get 10 full hours of surfing done).
Friday - final 8 heats of round 3 men, 4 heats of round 4 men (the arvo looks a little too wild and that WSW bump will affect the faces, there wont be that many quality waves despite the size)
Saturday - remaining 4 heats round 4 men, quarters men, semis women, semis men, and then the finals.

No disrespect to the women but I think most would prefer to see the men at bells when it is solid and chunky as they can get the most out of those conditions.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 7:54pm

I wonder if any heats will be done Wednesday arvo as the swell picks up a little

vicco11's picture
vicco11's picture
vicco11 commented Tuesday, 23 Apr 2019 at 9:00pm

With a massive high tide around 4pm I'd say very slim.

dan-burke's picture
dan-burke's picture
dan-burke commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 12:20am

On behalf of all the readers who never comment, thanks for this forecast and breakdown commentary. Bring it on! Also-freeride (I think it was you back in the Wilko rollerblading days) I miss your Aussie tour-stop write ups.

Hard-Core Trimmer

mugofsunshine's picture
mugofsunshine's picture
mugofsunshine commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 6:07am

Here you go Dan, I give you Steve 'Freeride' 'LongTom's' re-caps.
https://beachgrit.com/2019/04/bells-beach-rip-curl-pro/

dan-burke's picture
dan-burke's picture
dan-burke commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 5:24pm

Nice one! Gonzo lives!

Hard-Core Trimmer

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 6:23am

Anyway this could get interesting and i hope some of the women get arun in the big stuff....equal pay....equal opportunity.

simba

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 8:48am

Agreed Simba,

i can't recall but in what vid was the quote- "if you wanna dance, you gotta pay the band."?

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 9:17am

You've gotta love a solid forecast.
Fingers crossed for fantastic waves.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 9:19am

Without a doubt the heat of the contest could be curren vs occy.
No skim boards for curren in the forecast.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 12:29pm

Pros flying in step up boards from Hawaii/USA...

If I hear one more pro surfer pretend to care about the environment I’m gunna shit my pants

seal's picture
seal's picture
seal commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 1:28pm

Yeah gotta agree with the hypocrisy there ? Boards etc made from oil products then fly them over from the US ??
Carbon footprint bigger than Bigfoot himself !!!

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 1:29pm

Prior preparation prevents pro performance.

@Pro's pack a range of board sizes (before leaving for the contest) like the old days.

@ goofyfoot,
Load up on dates and wear shorts.

Charlie Brown's picture
Charlie Brown's picture
Charlie Brown commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 5:29pm

Well the planes are coming anyway, they're just throwing a board or two on there.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 10:28pm

Can’t argue with that!

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 12:43pm

Makes for good fertiliser I'm told.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 12:48pm

Just hope the judges reward wave size on Friday. A few years back we had similar conditions and the pros let all the sets go and then took smoother smaller waves as the surface was settling down.
If the blokes are going to do that again, send out the women to surf proper big bells.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 1:33pm

I have a feeling prit will punish any three stage bottom turns.
It should be interesting.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 1:25pm

Im sure it is all in the mix. Why go a big, bumpy burger just to go the ‘biggest’ one over quality?

eastcoastbuoy's picture
eastcoastbuoy's picture
eastcoastbuoy commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 2:17pm

@zenagain it was Billabongs vid...... Surf Into Summer 87'
Up there with the best surf music put to a surf vid...... TSOL for example.
Jason Buttonshaw at Kirra on a 6 week week swell fest
New rule - three boards per event. Prep and forecast analysis would improve dramatically!

eastcoastbuoy

JohnyUtah's picture
JohnyUtah's picture
JohnyUtah commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 6:50pm

Vaya Con Dios, Gabs

Luke

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 8:21pm

So Surfline are now calling Friday the biggest surf for the contest in 20 years and 18-20ft faces...

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 9:58pm
icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 10:03pm

Kieran Pellow?

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 9:39am

Bohdi is waiting already!

Grantroland's picture
Grantroland's picture
Grantroland commented Wednesday, 24 Apr 2019 at 10:21pm

Looking forward to it. And get your picks in for Bali . Great Swellnet Pro subscription and Surfrider subscriptions up for grabs... www.fantasysurfsessions.com

Watto79's picture
Watto79's picture
Watto79 commented Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 6:29pm

The wind is going to kill it. I can't see it being an 81. That year was glass from what I have seen, read and heard. Many spots on the coasts from Bridgewater to the Prom will fire up.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 7:08pm

Anyone see it on dark? Looks like it's gonna come up fast....

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 25 Apr 2019 at 10:13pm

Some 5ft sets at Bells. Tide wasn’t helping but felt like there was some energy about.