From Shippies to Cloudbreak
An intense polar low is currently positioned south-west of Tassie, and one look at the satellite image gives you a good idea on how impressive and substantial it is.
This storm and a following increase in polar frontal activity under Tasmania and into the Tasman Sea over the coming week are all linked to a strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough across New Zealand, covered in more detail here.
We've currently got a broad and drawn out node stretching below the country, and this has helped spawn the polar low that's currently in motion.
This low developed yesterday and satellite observations have already picked up an excellent storm-force fetch traversing eastwards, through Tasmania's prime swell window.
The low will continue east with strength today, breaking down under New Zealand.
This low is set to deliver a large long-period SW groundswell to Tasmania tomorrow, and then onwards to Fiji early next week, peaking through Tuesday.
While the South Arm will offer quality options under offshore winds as the swell starts building from mid-morning, Shipsterns Bluff looks to max out into the afternoon with sets to 12-15ft, quickly rising from paddle to tow range.
We're currently in the middle of the Red Bull Cape Fear waiting period, and given the first seven weeks of the waiting period have been unusually quiet, it'll be interesting to see whether the event is given the green light.
The long-period nature is a bit of an issue and conditions will become bumpy into the mid-late afternoon but with such a strong powerful long-period swell there should still be some crazy waves going down.
This swell isn't perfectly aimed towards Cloudbreak though should still provide large infrequent sets as it fills in proper on Tuesday, reaching 8ft on the bomb sets under E/SE- SE trades.
The Long Wave Trough will stall and strengthen significantly over New Zealand through early next week and this will see an initial polar front strengthen right under Tasmania, producing a fetch of elongated SW gales for an embedded fetch stronger severe-gale SW winds to move over, projecting towards New Zealand.
The position of the LWT is just a touch too east to be ideal for Cloudbreak, with the peak wind strengths being more aimed towards and dissected by New Zealand.
If the fetch was positioned just a touch further west, we would have been looking at easy 10-12ft Cloudbreak, now it's more likely to renew 8ft surf again next Saturday. However, the models have been shifting around (yesterday had much larger surf on the cards) so this outlook will be reassessed over the coming days.
The Australian East Coast will see side-band energy but winds are looking favourable for those south swell magnets when it arrives later in the week, though keep an eye on the local Forecaster Notes for your region for more detail.