Western Australia Margaret River Pro
May 17 - May 27

It feels too soon to move on, what with the Gold Coast Pro comment section still active and the many strands of an intriguing comp still to be teased out. 

Yet the circus continues and today we find ourselves five days out from the next contest, which is also one of the most anticipated comps of the year, the Margaret River Pro.

After Burleigh, there's been movement in the Top 5 for the men - notably Jack Robinson dropped four places to seventh - while the women's stay exactly the same: same names, same placings.

The real interest, however, is at the other end of the rankings as Margs is the last comp before the cut.

In the women, only four surfers have mathematically made it (ten women progress after the cut), while five surfers who are currently outside it can very easily qualify. To give an indication, the last of them is Sally Fitzgibbon and she's only 2,000 points off the cut line. Every heat win will count for surfers placed five to fifteen.

In the men, ten surfers have qualified, three surfers are tied on the cut line, and realistically only two surfers below the cut line, Liam O'Brien and George Pittar, have a chance of jumping ahead.

We'll have a more detailed article on the possibilities later in the week.

Southside, Mainbreak, and The Box, plus the mini-city that springs up this time each year.

So, the waves..?

As the big top gets erected at Surfers Point, the dancing bears have much to get excited about. The coming week will be filled with mid-range waves as a powerful low moves across the Southern Ocean, shunted south by a large high pressure system straddling the West Oz coastline. The same high will direct a light offshore/sideshore wind regime all week. An ideal warm up for a critical competition.

By Saturday, which is the first day of the waiting period, the pattern will be coming towards an end: the swell will drop into the 4 foot range and, with the high almost out of the window, the winds will be more north than east - meaning the morning land breeze will be overwhelmed by a northerly breeze. Sunday will be similar yet with a touch less swell.

Depending on what develops at the back end of the waiting period, Saturday and possibly even Sunday could see competition.

The next system of interest is forecast to track further north as it approaches the West Oz coastline. Though wind stengths only reach moderate gales, the wind field is broad - it's effectively a number of storms in procession - which should ensure a long tail in the swell.

At this stage we're looking at an arrival time of Tuesday, though Wednesday is when it fills in, peaking in size at around 6ft+. On both days a morning land breeze will give way to northerlies (yet again!).

The storm that creates Tuesday's swell has only moderate wind strengths but a broad wind field that stretches north of the Kerguelen Islands

Thursday will see a similar wind pattern but on a declining swell, the trend continuing until the next system moves in around Saturday the 24th.

This next system is forecast to herald a shift in wind regime, with stronger, more westerly quadrant winds striking the West Oz coast.

If that trend remains - remember, it's still twelve days out - it'll force the WSL to look for the more settled periods earlier in the waiting period. They won't be huge, and they may have to run a number of half-days, but a general northerly pattern will keep the mornings clean at Mainbreak and will also keep The Box top of mind when scheduling.

Keep track of developments in the comment section below and we'll be back on Friday with a more detailed forecast.

//STU NETTLE