Early Forecast: Shiseido Tahiti Pro
Shiseido Tahiti Pro
May 22nd - 31st
(All dates refer to local time)
This week has seen two days of large and very epic Teahupoo. The cast of CT surfers in the pack adding to the spectacle.
It's a hard act to follow but not unheard of, swell runs can sometimes last for weeks, so let's get into the nitty gritty of the Tahiti Pro forecast and see what's expected.
Teahupoo works on a simple equation. With ever reliable trade-winds taking care of surface conditions, we rely on the Southern Ocean to provide swell-generating storms, ideally from polar latitudes, though the mid-latitudes will do as well, producing heavier west swells.
The current setup has been ideal for Teahupoo, with a large blocking pattern that’s been influencing Australian weather, allowing strong polar fronts to push under it, up and then towards New Zealand along its south-eastern coast.
We should see this trend continue over the coming week-and-a-half as the block moves more into the Tasman Sea, focusing polar frontal activity up and around its south-eastern flank, towards Tahiti.
Timing is everything, and for this event luck will be on the WSL’s side, with the block forecast to continue east, shutting down the swell window at the end of the month.
Coming back to the start of the waiting period - which is next Wednesday - and just before the event window kicks off, we’re due to see a funky mix of southeast groundswell and mid-period energy in the water, generated by a strong, stalling mid-latitude low that will develop southeast of the islands this weekend.
Keep in mind the prevailing swell direction at Teahupoo is southwest.
Despite the skewif direction, the stationary nature of the low and its strength will actually see large surf generated, likely peaking to 6 foot+ on Tuesday, the day before the start of the waiting period.
It’ll still be strong and likely the dominant swell in the water come the opening day of the waiting period, with 4-5 foot sets running from deeper down the reef. The swell will ease through the day, and then be smaller again into Thursday.
It’s from Wednesday afternoon that we can then turn our eyes back to the southwest, with the first of a series of moderate sized south-southwest swells due to fill in, gaining momentum as the waiting period progresses.
This first swell is being generated by the current frontal activity moving in, under Tasmania and New Zealand. While currently strong, it’s not ideally aligned but pulsey, inconsistent sets to 4-5 foot are due through the afternoon on Wednesday, easing slowly from a similar size Thursday.
A less consistent, background mid-period swell should maintain pulsey 4-5 foot sets Friday, with a more significant groundswell on the cards for the weekend.
The source of that last swell will be a strong polar low forming south-southwest of Tasmania on the weekend.
We’re looking at a significant polar storm, with fetches of severe-gale to storm-force west-southwest winds due to set in motion a moderate-large, long-period south-southwest groundswell for Saturday and Sunday in Tahiti, with it likely peaking overnight.
Strong though inconsistent sets to 6 to occasionally 8 foot are due into Saturday afternoon, easing from a similar size Sunday morning, with secondary frontal activity not likely to let the surf get below 6 foot into Monday.
Local winds at this stage look a little flukey and variable throughout the entire period thanks to the absence of any major sustained trade-flow. This shouldn’t affect conditions too adversely especially with the multiple quality swell days lining up.
The outlook from next weekend diverges a little, but in short there’s a tonne more swell generation on the cards with the event possibly ending in large, challenging conditions.
We’ll continue to provide running updates as the outlook evolves.
Comments
Looking forward to the chicks charging.
Moana Wong In it ?
k
Can't remember the last time I got excited for a comp. Here's hoping it delivers.
Please, please lets see some epic tube riding days.
Been trying not to look at those storms SE of New Zealand so as not to jinx it.
Funny shit freeride76
You can look at it now.
Thanks Craig. I love: ‘possibly ending in large, challenging conditions’.
Make 'em work for it!
Ten years...
That first storm has Central America written all over it......
Looks like the last storm will test out the "new improved" judging tower.....
Toledo made the right call pulling out this season. sounds like it might be a few solid days.
He’s still got the Olympics to go though!
Gabby will be licking his lips in anticipation of this forecast. Gabby v JJF final in standup toobs please.
Yes, please
100% yes. Be good to have a charging Gab's back performing
Yew sick! Robbo for the win if its big all event.
Molly for the women unless Vahine has the wildy.
Heat 3 looks good.
Wildcard Kelly vs Robbo vs Ramzi.
Slater fitzgibbons
I wonder how the impending birth of child
Will effect his ego/ psyche.
All or nothing or new found hesitation?
Same for John John
Jack Robinson also , will they be a more reserved/ cautious version of one's former self?
Kelly’s ego is impenetrable. Nothing will change
Carn Huey, throw a dog a bone.
I wonder if we're going to see the new CEO in the booth, or will they just chain him to his new desk in Santa Monica for the rest of the season?
let him loose in brazil
Has he started yet?
Yep, 13th May.
He's on.
CEO can stay in the office till Trestles
Save some money
I ll give the new ceo.2 years.....
thanks for the forecast Craig; may you also catch some winter waves... starting this weekend
video above; great footage for thoses that didnt get an invite... thanks sprout
for realism (& a good surf stretch); shake a carbonated drink and release the cap with both hands behind your back...
POV .. https://www.instagram.com/tikanuismith/reel/C677js8ugei/
4min of waves start at 3min
Are tow-ins allowed in this comp...?
Thanks
Like at 5:25 paddles inside for a medium one misses it
Gets cleaned up by a set
Far out that's some incredible heavy water surfing in the 2nd one
Yes Craig, just yes
He’s got the style, the balls, the power and the tricks.
If only the judges rewarded him.
Jesus!
What a psycho. Looks like Nate Florence.
Love to see a video of LOB’s wave. By all accounts wave of the day.
So good to see him over there early and getting in the reps.
I feel he is future world champion material.
Boggling to see Ewing getting all the hype as everyone’s favourite new Aussie tour pro.
Liam O’Brian is levels above I reckon and gets a small fraction of the attention or love from the judges.
Dropped by bbong recently too.
Judges will reward that.
Has the GOAT still got it?
Ego - yes
Expectations - yea
Ability to win - no
You reckon..?
Considering this comp will be solely about getting barrelled in big, hollow lefts, there won't even be half-points on offer for end section turns, what part of Kelly's current skillset would deny him the chance to win?
Not arguing, just curious.
He last won there in 2016. So he hasn’t won there for 8 years despite the respect he deserves out there. He barely made a heat all season this year, has missed the cut twice and not been competitive for at least 8 years. He might make a few heats but im betting he doesn’t go deep in the comp we see the heroics from others.
OK, fairies nuts.
Not sure heat wins in 'turn' waves compared to proper Chopes, and he did win Pipe in 2021.
FWIW I don't think Slater will blink in the face of heaving sets but I wonder about his reflex time, which is arguably less important the bigger it is.
2022 he won Pipe.
He also made the semi's at Chopes that year, losing to Kauli Vaast in the Semis.
Last year he bombed in shitty surf.
I’m happy to put money on him bombing again AND he will have a whole swag of excuses why - the hip, the foot, the back etc everything other than xyz beat me.
Plus he will be a late arrival compared to everyone else so very little practice time. I still have my doubts he will actually get there as Kalani can’t have far to go in her pregnancy at all.
Yewww
LOB absolutely charges. He would be a dark horse in this event.
Wed 29th...
frothing to watch this event unfold, thanks for the stoke Craig
My pleasure, stoked on finally a fairly easy, good quality forecast.
It's still tricky as but there'll be no lack of great to excellent surf days.
That NZ corridor is looking very good this morning.
Haha good to see you finally looked hahaha
Bloody oath pickles!!! That's epic!
Incredible. The free surfs must’ve been a total spectacle.
wow, full send from Pickles.
That’s huge from Molly. What a wave. She’s incredible.
Does anyone know if the trials are broadcasted somewhere?
Last year they were broadcast on youtube, French only. Waves were firing!!!!
Get the juices flowing
&ab_channel=WorldSurfLeagueDid trials run today ?
That was from 2023. This year's trials are scheduled for the 18th and19th. Kickoff 6 hrs from now...
Cheers
How’d he get it ‘alone’ when the whole tour is in town and it’s breaking like that?
i'd imagine a wonky forecast +tide combo people didn't think would be worth looking at, and he was the only one who rolled the dice + had the ability to surf it (like when most of us mortals wouldn't look at low tide Cave in Portugal, as a crude analogy)
He is lying.
When you are a promsurfer you tens not to notice anyone else…..
Goody Goody Goody!!!!
The WAM’s are going off for the backend of the comp 10-15ft and offshore last 3 days of comp. This will be like 2014 can’t wait Slater to take the win.
Slats will be hoping they don't run the first few rounds in the middling stuff where he is brought back to the pack.
Yep, we've got some large stuff inbound!
So good!
Geez, can you imagine the nerves. There'd be a few sleepless nights going down at the end of the road right now.
Looking forward to this comp.
LOB for the win!
if they finish the mens in smaller stuff before the big stuff i will never watch again
Remember the Woz dodged that large Pipe day this year. Hopefully no repeat.
Shame Matahi Drollet not in - he'd probably win it.
GOAT vs Medina Final.
Let's hope they hold their nerves and wait for the pumping days. Is JMD still running the show?
Surely they will wait for the juice? It’s the one guaranteed way they have to maximise the eyeballs on the screens.
put the girls in the juice too. not just the guys. for equality of course..... and our viewing pleasure
And so the girls willing to have a crack get to shine (Pickles, Simmers, Betty-Lou etc).
Those ladies must feel like they are being kneecapped when they run in small stuff and even the field out.
JJF v LOB final
I feel like pretty much anyone could win this
I read this comment and thought, no way. Then I went and looked at the post cuff ranking and kind of have to agree. I'd say the only crew who I'd be surprised to win given a hefty forecast would be: Ramzi, Rio, Jake Marshall and Cole Houshmand ...........only because of a lack of experience and I haven't seen their heavy water credentials.
Robbo V JJF final.(hopefully) Robbo for the win.
Goat a hot chance. Would love a Medina V Slats rematch in big heaving chopes and KS to get one back on Gabby.
Vahine V Pickles final. Vahine for the win. Shame Bronte and Tahlia R aren't in the heat draw!
Caity might do some crazy shit.
Three way heats and finals... (forget the wsl warmup & tiny trestles),
there be heaps of surfable waves ....if ...the wind is offshore.
Warning; 4k slowmo eye candy below
Teahupo'o @40min
&t=4712sLOB $41
kelly $34
$100 they don't run it on the biggest and best days.
Swell looks to go into the tow realm through the waiting period now, but they'll have plenty of great, large days to run either side. Will have an update Thursday.
oh boy, can't wait to watch JJF. this is going to be epic.
Craig, not sure where to put this... but would you consider doing a forecast like this for the Shark Island Challenge waiting period which kicks off in 2 days? Biggest global bodyboarding event in maybe 20 years.
Been talking with Luke, will be on the phone to him this evening. I'll def do a forecast when things start looking favourable.
Sweet! Thanks
That's what I was thinking, looks like it'll be mammoth for a few days. I'm hoping they run mens in borderline un- paddleable. And women's in that solid 6-8 ft range. Will sort the wheat from the chaff and be a good spectacle.
Fuck I wish Toledo was on tour this year
Haha! Said no one ever
HAHAHA
Who won the trials, can’t find any info
Alana_a - Mihimana Braye won the trials. its on WSL site.
Salute.
If Pip was serious about improving at waves like Teahupo’o, you’d think he’d be taking the opportunity to surf it pumping with only one other guy out….
I've seen on Instagram that he is in Tahiti at the moment
I'm sure he's seen the forecast and will make his way back to a 2ft wave pool in a hurry.
what times it going to be on in aus? QLD
Our 4am Thursday is their 8am Wednesday.
So from around 4am every day, AEST.
Thanks Craig, should i be setting the alarm for tomorrow?
Nah, much better days to come.
Craig do you think round 1 of girls tomorrow and round 1 of the men’s on the 25th ??
Baby steps...
Does a 'quick trip to Teahupoo' imply a trip between the two actual swells?
Good luck with that no hands take off when it's over 4 foot pip.
surely thats embarrassing to upload when everyone else has been getting 8-10 footers including the girls
Easily the smallest wave I’ve seen out of Tahiti all week
Ha, indeed!
Meanwhile Pickles posts a pic of a tube 3 x that size.
I don’t get why he’d share that wave.
That's a blob of PURPLE on the swell-map SE of NZ this Sunday evening?
Code Red !!
Will have an update tomorrow. Not Code Red but very exciting.
I think that's good. Want it near unpaddleable but still makeable for the greats.........
Yep like the Kai and Dion heat years ago.
Faaaaarkkkk!!
Wow!
When I look at that my scrotum tingles and shrinks a little
Guestimate numbers
6m high face
Seems square to me but rounding down let's say 4m deep.
6 X 4 = 24 cubic metres
= 24 Tonnes of molten glass per lineal Teahupoo metre
Heavy
If that doesn't put ants in your sack ..
well, you're not thinking properly
Imagine trying to sit in and snag a few 'inbetweeners', knowing that one of these is going to roll through at any time.
GFS being bullish on this storm to the SE of NZ over the weekend, compared to EC (bearish).
That is equal parts exquisite and grotesque
Love to hear your thoughts on what days they may go. I am tied up with work Sun and Mon so hoping not then. Don't want to miss this one.
And on the second/third wave (33secs in) ..you can see Mick pop up after his brutal beating just in time to get a breath and a bomb exploding on his head. Nightmare stuff.
I'm thinking they will more than likely run the womens over the coming days with the SE swell which will be far more forgiving than the SW swells coming after this. Possibly even wrap the womens up by close of play on the weekend (Tahiti time) with the womens final in that smaller SW groundswell over the weekend. Gents commencing mid next week with overlapping heats with finals ending on last day of waiting period. May commence the mens later on Tuesday 28th (Tahiti time) if those SW forerunners start to fill in Tuesday arvo.
Makes sense, was thinking the same thing about the women's early rounds.
But a big call to separate the finals don't you think?
We can only dream, although I would like to see the women in 8ft + just to see who’s really got it
I'm looking forward to the Olympics, should make some very interesting viewing.
When the olympics ?