Do we need to start with first principles here?

I think we do.

Sunset Beach was last the stop on the Championship Tour in 2003. Since then it has become a QS and local Hawaiian contest of varying prestige and prizemoney. Apparently, during this time frame, the orthodox wisdom about surfing the joint has been to avoid paddling out the back to the peak and only surf the Inside Bowl and charge.

This was noted by former Head Judge Richie Porta in his pre-game analysis of what the judges would be looking for. He made mention of how the new thing was to surf in close on shorter boards, which “bothered” him and assured us that judges would favour those who paddled out and speared the peak.

That did not happen.

Which has to beg the question: What is the purpose of having Sunset as a CT stop?

If a big challenging wave is only going to be ridden for half its length and the main peak is studiously avoided, then why are we here?

After coming second at Pipe, Seth Moniz lost his Round One heat and scraped through the Elimination Round

The cognitive dissonance felt by surf fans all day - as huge peaks stood up and unloaded on the back button then rolled through for what felt like hours before surfers rolled in on the shoulder - was shared by the booth. Winning Sunset surfer Makua Rothman called it “baffling”, said surfers were “too far on the shoulder” and, just in case that was confusing, asserted that to “maximise scoring potential they should take off on the peak”.

Kelly Slater was about the only surfer who toyed with the outer peak in his Elimination Round heat - well he at least paddled out there and acknowledged its existence. After a nervy heat where he did just enough to bag a pair of sixes, despite some very “restrained” surfing, he maintained in his presser with respect to the peak that “he should have sat out there” and that paddling into the saddle where every other surfer sat went against his gut instincts which he insisted were being guided by an imaginary conversation he had with Sunny Garcia.

Kelly may have looked nervy and out of sorts but he made the necessary adjustments after a woeful first heat which he attributed to biochemical malfunction: “my blood sugar felt wrong.” Both the adjustment and the presser were vintage Kelly. Two more heat wins and it's job done for Kelly, so those nervous sixes may be some of the most crucial rides of his career, if the fairytale plays out, and he's in a position to shoot for twelve.

Another question we will probably have answered this comp: If the peak is out of bounds, what is the ideal size for Sunset now? I'd say 6-8 foot. Which makes any forecast for big surf at Sunset somewhere between superfluous and irrelevant.

It's another one of those strange paradoxes of pro surfing where obscure but rational (to competitors) incentives force surfers away from producing what fans want to see. Would Pancho Sullivan on a 7'4” taking off deep on a peak have won a heat today? We'll never know, because not one surfer in the draw really put the counter-factual in front of judges and forced them into a decision.

Boards were all over the shop. Some went small, like JJF, who's dominance of the 'new Sunset' - two turns and a closeout reo - on a 6'2” will likely set the CT standard for this comp for years to come.

Longer sleds like Caio Ibelli's 6'8” drew a pleasing line. Ethan Ewing on a similar-sized craft had a Margo-esque torque to his top turns and did enough to get through.

The most pleasing line to my eye was drawn by Barron Mamiya on a 6'4” swallow-tail quad. Mamiya was noticeably quiet between the turns, no framing with double pumps and wick wacks, just pure symmetry between the the bottom and the top.

DeVault got off the biggest turns of the day on a superb ride from deeper on the reef.

34-year old Jordy Smith's 6'11” did damage but also got hung up on the top turn.

Jordy up in the lip

If there was theme for what judges favoured it was surfers who could turn as close to the top of the wave as possible. No-one does this better than John Florence at Sunset.

Underdogs and rookies had moments of glory. I said not one surfer went out the back, but that's not quite right. Jadson Andre got a bomb from close to the back peak and laid in four turns for an undervalued 6.5.

Callum Robson stole his winning wave right from under Slater's blood sugar-ravaged nose to squeak into advancing position.

Jacko Baker was solid, under-scored on a pair of 5's that should have been 7's.

Just as he did at Pipe, Jacko got his Round One heat off to a raging start

Jake Marshall easily bested favourite Jack Robbo.

With every day now being smaller than the opening, with a style of surf that John Florence called “hard” and a “workout” you'd have to put his piloting of the 6'2” Ghost into the same sort of red hot favouritism he would be granted at Main Break, Margaret River. Anything in that 6-8ft range and it's almost impossible to see anyone matching his turns.

The only challenge I could see would be from a goofy-footer prepared to throw a board up into the high hook time and time again. Judges showed they will pay it, even allowing for the lack of repertoire.

Connor O'Leary looked terrible, until he didn't. The round, full arc of a grab rail bottom turn stood out, with the high hook more the dessert to the main meal.

Italo will punch the living daylights out of the end bowl, ala Bells and J'Bay on the bricks.  It's a turn no one else can do*. O'Leary is a bona fide dark horse. Italo, not so much. Either would still need a perfect heat to take a win off John John.

Big Sunset or tiny Baia Formosa, Italo treats it the same

Assuming Kelly and John make heats. They go into Portugal ranked one and two. Who carries the competitive advantage in a head to head contest?

I say Kelly, and that is why he looks so damn happy. Poor bastard can't afford a gummy bear to deal with a blood sugar crisis but he knows his closest potential rival may not have the stomach for a year long battle for the title.

That's hyperbole, sure, but also true.

// STEVE SHEARER

*Apart from Medina.