Gabriel Medina can win the world title in Portugal

Stu Nettle
Form Guide

It's the time of year when the mathematics wizard becomes the oracle of pro surfing. Never mind heat strategy or judging criteria, he who can add up the numbers shall be listened to.

It all gets a bit confusing when, instead of a straight run to the finish line, each surfer drops their two worst results.

Confusing to predict, that is. It's dead simple come the end of the season.

At present only 320 points separates Gabriel Medina in first and Felipe Toledo in second, while Julian Wilson is 4,325 points back in third. It's one of the closest title races in years, however Gabs' consistency - his worst place is a 13th - means he has a mathematical chance of winning the title at Portugal.

The breakdown is as follows:

  • Gabriel Medina, Filipe Toledo, and Julian Wilson are the three World Title contenders
  • Going into Portugal only Gabriel Medina can clinch the title; Toledo and Wilson can only win it in Hawaii
  • If Medina finishes first in Portugal, Toledo will need a ninth or better and Wilson a third or better to take the World Title to Hawaii
  • If Gabriel Medina finishes second or worse in Portugal, the World Title race will go to Hawaii

Amongst the trio, it's hard to find a favourite at Portugal as each of them has won the contest: Jules in 2012 (beating Gabs in the final); Toledo in 2015; and Gab is the defending champion (he beat Jules in the final). Nor does the forecast clearly favour any surfer with mid-range swell easing over the first dew days generally accompanied by northerly winds, which blow cross/sideshore - think lots of ramps and an air wind.

Also in the main event draw are the two wildcards, Samuel Pupo and Miguel Blanco, plus Miguel Pupo, Wiggolly Dantas, Ryan Callinan, and Vasco Ribeiro, who are replacing the injured quartet of Slater, John John, Caio Ibelli, and Parko.

Comments

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley commented Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 12:48pm

Let's hope Gabs is a bit more respectful on the podium this time when Jules smokes him.

35_degrees's picture
35_degrees's picture
35_degrees commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 2:44pm

you love gabs

@35_degrees

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo commented Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 1:36pm

Don't get why our top Aussie surfers are so friendly with these Brazilians, has to be fake, unless its just the PC brigade has crept in, or they have never had to deal with 10 turning up and taking over the break and hassling and dropping in on everyone lol.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 2:13pm

And Robbo from memory, Gabbies step dad made the arsehole comment that they were not in the WCT to make friends, just to win - absolute dickhead. The guy has a chip on his shoulder the size of Brazil and Gab has to bear it so you can see why he is a bit weird. Seen plenty of these pricks at junior footy, in fact nearly had fisticuffs with their win at all costs mentality. Steve Smith knows all about this I am sure.

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 8:15pm

For a second there I thought the man of the moment king Slup...I mean SUP had joined the forum. That photo is too funny.

knB

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 6:06pm

I called Flip at the beginning of the season to be the champ and I'll stick to it. Be stoked if either Julian or Fillipe win though, both are deserving.

As much as I admire his surfing, i just can't warm to Gabs in any way. I'm with Maddog, I hope Jules smokes him.

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Friday, 19 Oct 2018 at 2:29pm

Looks like that may not happen for Felipe after today.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain commented Friday, 19 Oct 2018 at 3:26pm

Looks like that Lanky, but you gotta take a stand sometimes.

Farkin' Medina, phenomenal surfer but just so... (insert expletive)

Watashi wa metabo oyagi desu.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Tuesday, 16 Oct 2018 at 6:54pm

I hope Felipe wins it i like his surfing better and he just seems to have a better attitude ..as Zen put it so well "i just can't warm to Gabs in any way"

Please Stunet just give me that ignore button for Crypto (Herc, uplift or whatever other names he has used)

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 8:42am

Julian is not as far behind as it seems thanks to that consistency of Medina’s. At this stage Gabe is throwing away 3280 more points than Julian (a 9th v a 25th) and it stays that way if they both do ok at the last two events. The difference can be as little as 1 heat. If Julian can muster a quarter and a 2nd, and Gabe a quarter and a 3rd, then Julian will win 57585 to 57235. (Also if Toledo buckles)
It’s closer than it looks
-EDIT-
Ok I better add in Toledo’s numbers now I see he won his rd2 heat while I was asleep. He is the most interesting, and on throw aways is actually in front of Medina! (This is assuming their last two results stay equal or above Medina’s throwaway of a 9th)
So if Toledo matches Medina in these last two events, with a quarter and a semi, then he finishes on 58950, and wins the title.
Again, it’s closer than it looks.
Medina’s strength is he can afford a bad result and still win. My speculation is totally based on strong finishes by all. A failure in either event will almost certainly end the season for Julian and Toledo

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 3:09pm

They should just get rid of the throw aways next year.!
All or nothing !

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 10:36am

Well said SD.

How about this one ..
If GM gets a 9th & 2nd and FT gets a 9th & 3rd they end up on the same points.
What happens then? (assuming JW hasn't bagged a 2nd & 3rd or better and won the title!)

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 11:52am

Do they really end up on the same points? God all those funny points scores ending in 5 I thought were meant to protect from that. They have a surf off I think? That’d be kind of a must watch heat!

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 3:07pm

Does anyone else think its gabby's or julian's ?
Toledo .....no chance ......not come pipeline anyway.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 4:12pm

With that scenario I'm pretty sure they end up with the same number of 1st's thru to 9th's

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 6:22pm

This stuff is more complex than the Black-Scholes model of option pricing. Well done shoredump for understanding it

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 7:32pm

I hope Medina wins it. Not just because it’d piss a lot of people off, but because he’s a phenomenal surfer.
I love Toledo’s surfing too, and he seems like a good dude, but somehow can’t see him taking it.
And just to sound like a complete mess, there’ll be no complaints if Julian wins either.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Monday, 22 Oct 2018 at 1:03am

I was all for medina winning , then I actually watched the replay with Ryan cal/ medina.
I'm surprised after that the WSL didn't implement the excessive hassling rule against median.
The WSL just keeps getting worse....what happened to pro surfing . It's really sad.

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost commented Wednesday, 17 Oct 2018 at 8:19pm

Just so good to see Jules in with a chance when everyone including me had written him off as not hungry enough.

knB

freerider's picture
freerider's picture
freerider commented Friday, 19 Oct 2018 at 5:16pm

Medina isn't going to win it in Portugal its going to go to pipe

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 12:04am

You may be correct, but the one thing medina isn't doing is winning anymore fans with that excessive hassling/ Interference crappp..... not into it . He's as bad as Robert !
Shit winning i think you would call it !

Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68 commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 12:27am

IMO the bottom line regarding the Medina hassling scenario is that he’s clearly doing it within the rules. Can’t really blame him. He’s one of those few athletes that are willing to win at all costs, within the rules. It happens in every sport at the elite level. I agree that it’s a terrible look for the WSL. I would much rather see them surfing than hassling like that. The rules need to be changed to stamp it out.

Crystal Clear

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 7:45am

agree

Please Stunet just give me that ignore button for Crypto (Herc, uplift or whatever other names he has used)

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 9:55am

I’m not so sure. In the seconds leading up to the incident Ryan made several attempts to move away from Medina. Medina paddled into Ryan once more as the wave came then waived his hand in the air claiming Ryan stopped him from catching the wave. It was obvious dishonesty and that lie is the crux of my argument. It’s very similar to a soccer dive, and gaining a penalty for it.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 11:31am

Shit Winning Medina.

Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68 commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 12:54pm

Given the judges have access to replays before posting a score, I can only assume they watched a replay of the “interference” & called it accordingly. However if your right and what Medina did was equivalent to a “dive” then he should penalised for sure. Such a bad look alround.

Crystal Clear

prothero's picture
prothero's picture
prothero commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 12:31am

Medina is an amazing surfer, sadly however you can shine a star but you can not polish a turd. I reckon win at all cost surfing is ugly surfing ,,,,shit winning in dead

Prothero

brownie48's picture
brownie48's picture
brownie48 commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 12:27pm

Medina is a incredible surfer but has a terrible attitude

Toledo is a incredible surfer has a better attitude than Medina but is a wuss and not worthy to be called the best in the world

Julian is an incredible surfer and has a great attitude and charges, worthy world champ

Fully agree with prothero comment, you cant polish a turd...

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost commented Saturday, 20 Oct 2018 at 1:04pm

...but you can roll it in glitter

knB

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Monday, 22 Oct 2018 at 3:35pm

So what am i going to do for the next 8 weeks waiting for the pipe masters?
World champ already....damn you dirk and your tampering ways.

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