COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
So where is this evidence?
Covid is hardly the Black Plague for anyone, let alone kids.
I hope the CDC is an acceptable source.
https://fee.org/articles/8-things-children-are-more-likely-to-die-from-t...
If you are after absolute certainty supa you are living in the wrong universe. It doesn't exist. The UK data suggests Omicron is just as virulent as Delta which, if true, would result in a significant number of child deaths without a high vaccine take up.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-o...
@blindboy , is this the part of that article that convinced you that omicron is just as virulent as delta ? “The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time. “ So you don’t believe anything that South African reports of their experience ?
supa it comes down to the precautionary principle. We are not sure about the severity of Omicron. The evidence from the UK suggests it could be as severe as Delta. The evidence from South Africa is that it might be less severe. There is no conclusive evidence either way. In these circumstances the assessment that the risk of not vaccinating children is greater, is what we need to act on. If you disagree with that assessment you.might like to notify the TGA as to where they have gone wrong.
GuySmiley wrote:Rags?
Get your own words info, there are only one type of media rags and it’s the Murdoch rags .... as established here years ago when I quoted what my grandmother used to call the herald sun
Ha ha you a such a tosser you live in such a naive bubble you honestly probably do think it's a word unique to yourself or your family.
Sorry to burst your bubble but its a word I've used for years and a word very commonly used and a word that has been used since way before both of us or your grandmother was born.
@blindboy , I just read your link again and noticed this at the bottom “ The work, which is not yet peer-reviewed, is presented in the latest report from the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling within the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London. “ is this acceptable seeing as its not ‘ peer reviewed ‘ ?
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635/rr-80
Also, maybe the precautionary principle should be applied to vaccinating 5-12yo’s as well. I can certainly see the advantages but I can also see the unknowns: long term side effects (infertility, malignancy, neurological disease) and true incidence of myocarditis.
Providine-Iodine nasal rinse has growing evidence of effectiveness. Maybe it’s just better to treat the 5-12yo’s with this if they get it??
Peer review is important but it takes time. Reseach is often published before peer review with that information included. This is particularly true during the pandemic as the situation can change rapidly and the latest data is necessary to make good decisions.
Supafreak wrote:blindboy wrote:Child covid deaths in the US are now over 800. How many child deaths do you think are acceptable in Australia? Given the US population is roughly 10 times larger and the virus is now spreading exponentially, leaving children unvaccinated would result in many dying.
https://www.google.com/search?q=usa+pediatric+deaths+from+covid+19&oq=US...No one can answer this question BB , you are also failing to recognise that omicron will be the dominant strain in Australia . The US is still largely dealing with delta which’ MAY ‘ be more virulent than omicron which ‘ MAY ‘ be nothing more than a headache and bit crook for a few days in healthy young Australian kids .
800 deaths out of over 50 million (known) Covid cases and 800,000 plus Covid deaths in the USA.
And how many of these 800 deaths did the kids have other medical conditions???
Hard to find this info, but in the UK about half of Covid deaths in children had other medical conditions.
So it doesn't matter if they die? They are best protected by vaccination and high levels of vaccination in other children. ffs think before you post.
@blindboy , we have high levels of vaccination in Australia, so why is it spreading so quickly ? Surely you don’t still believe it’s only the unvaccinated that are spreading covid ? Do you believe high levels of vaccination in children will stop the spread ?
Sure about that Blindboy? Once vaccinated the kids are at risk of vaccine related myocarditis. But they need to get Covid to be at risk of Covid myocarditis. Does vaccinating them on masse sufficiently reduce the all cause mortality to a greater degree than the incidence of vaccine related problems? And what about longitudinal safety?
Maybe early treatment of the kids with nasal rinse, budesonide and Fluvoxamine may reduce deaths, reduce the incidence of Covid myocarditis yet not expose the kids to the vaccine risks.
Hard to know but certainly that rationale is pause for thought
" Does vaccinating them on masse sufficiently reduce the all cause mortality to a greater degree than the incidence of vaccine related problems?" Yes, that is the conclusion of the tga in approving the vaccine.
More interesting stuff, and those people in charge are doing it for the better for our health, yeah right
Robert Kennedy is a discredited idiot using covid for his own political purposes
info-killrags
Trigger alert
"Netherlands to go into strict Christmas lockdown"
"THE HAGUE, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The Netherlands will go into a strict lockdown over the Christmas and New Year period to try to contain the highly- contagious Omicron coronavirus variant, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Saturday."
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/netherlands-...
blindboy wrote:Robert Kennedy is a discredited idiot using covid for his own political purposes
Yep, think his wife is vaccinated and has asked visitors to the house to be vaccinated also.
"Robert Kennedy is a discredited idiot using covid for his own political purposes".
See, you are such a fucking hypocrit.
Is this peer reviewed? Why should I give a fuck about your opinion?
I want majority proof of the experts. A concensus.
Personally, I think the same of Fauci.
blindboy wrote:" Does vaccinating them on masse sufficiently reduce the all cause mortality to a greater degree than the incidence of vaccine related problems?" Yes, that is the conclusion of the tga in approving
the vaccine.
Yes they have. And the issue of longitudinal safety is dismissed as “unlikely”. I guess we’ll find out
Laughable shambles would be about right.
At this stage, it's all guesswork and arse covering.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-18/vaccine-data-gaps-poi...
More Orwellian Ying and yang.
This a local treat.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/coronavirus/covid-qld-silent-cluster-thre...
blindboy wrote:Child covid deaths in the US are now over 800. How many child deaths do you think are acceptable in Australia? Given the US population is roughly 10 times larger and the virus is now spreading exponentially, leaving children unvaccinated would result in many dying.
https://www.google.com/search?q=usa+pediatric+deaths+from+covid+19&oq=US...
C’mon mate, to share that number with no context is only for one reason. To create fear.
1. How many children die each year
2. How many die from the flu each year
3. Were these kids obese (which is believe is child abuse)
4: Comorbidities? And would they have died with any virus?
Let’s put that number back into perspective
My kids will never get this experimental jab. They live fit healthy lives, eat healthy food which I educate them on every single day in a positive way.
Roadkill wrote:burleigh wrote:I just sat in emergency with my kid for 2 hours. In that time two people came in at seperate times both complaining of heart pain. One had the 2nd jab yesterday and the other within the last week.
They got taken straight in, no waiting around.
Not so rare complications that we don’t hear about. And now they want to inject our kids. Over my dead bodySo medical advice and treatment from Drs is ok…but only when it suits you?
Surely an organic Acai bowel would be sufficient treatment for everything?
Yes dopey, of course it’s ok to get a broken arm treated, that’s not an experiment as far as I’m aware and I’m a tax paying citizen.
In case you forgot the jab is approved for emergency use only with Drs & Nurses not able to speak up about what’s really happening in hospitals.
And lastly it’s not compulsory.
Latest reports.
Still early days either way.
https://www.tga.gov.au/periodic/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-safety-report-16...
burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:burleigh wrote:I just sat in emergency with my kid for 2 hours. In that time two people came in at seperate times both complaining of heart pain. One had the 2nd jab yesterday and the other within the last week.
They got taken straight in, no waiting around.
Not so rare complications that we don’t hear about. And now they want to inject our kids. Over my dead bodySo medical advice and treatment from Drs is ok…but only when it suits you?
Surely an organic Acai bowel would be sufficient treatment for everything?Yes dopey, of course it’s ok to get a broken arm treated, that’s not an experiment as far as I’m aware and I’m a tax paying citizen.
In case you forgot the jab is approved for emergency use only with Drs & Nurses not able to speak up about what’s really happening in hospitals.
And lastly it’s not compulsory.
Not enough calcium bro…diet lacking…ya know…it’s that easy for a clued up positive lifestyle guru.
You did use the knowledge of those nasty Drs who are supported by the big bad big pharma. Shit, I hope no pain meds were used…being they are supplied by big pharma. .
Hypocrisy…does bite the arse of stupid idiots.
aaron61 wrote:Laughable shambles would be about right.
At this stage, it's all guesswork and arse covering.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-18/vaccine-data-gaps-poi...
More Orwellian Ying and yang.
This a local treat.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/coronavirus/covid-qld-silent-cluster-thre...
@aaron , paywalls on both links but I managed to find out what the bloomberg article was about from other sources , makes you wonder what other data and percentages they have got right……or wrong.
Roadkill wrote:Hypocrisy…does bite the arse of stupid idiots.
Your not going to mention the 2 people that came in with heart pain after the jab in 2 hours? Yet you’re trying to say I’m a hypocrite for not wanting an experimental vaccine but happy for a dr to treat my kids broken arm? Hahahahaha
Don’t tell me that you still believe that you need to drink cows milk for calcium? Haha what next you still believe in Santa? Or god?
blindboy wrote:So it doesn't matter if they die? They are best protected by vaccination and high levels of vaccination in other children. ffs think before you post.
It's all about risk v's reward.
In old people its a no brainer to get vaccinated the risk of sickness or death from the Covid is very real, while the risk from the vaccine low and being near the end of life cycle any unknown long term effects from vaccine not such a big deal.
As we know the risk of Covid diminishes with age to a point where those below 12 the odds of real sickness in a healthy child is super super rare, the benefits of the vaccine hence also diminish quickly, but does the vaccine risk diminish???
Common sense says no, a child is still growing and whether we like it or not we really don't know the long term effects of the vaccine especially on a child who has their whole life in front of them.
When weighing up the risk vs reward, risk of Covid, benefits of vaccine and risk of the unknown from vaccine for a child, i can't see how is worth it at this stage..
Personally i think I'm going to get a taste of what vaccine mandates feel like for some people if my 8 year old daughter has to quarantine when entering Indo if not vaxed, im going to be in the position of having decide to get her Covid vaxed when i really don't want too or putting the whole family through possibly 7 to 10 days of quarantine if she is unvaxed.
It would be easy for me to just get her vaxed and take the easy way out, but what happens if they do discover a long term effect in a few years that affects kids and then im going to have to live knowing i caused it in a sense because i wasn't willing to go through 7 to 10 days quarantine.
It sucks if im put in that position.
Plus ideally id prefer her to get natural immunity and then get vaccinated if needed as gets older.
indo-dreaming wrote:blindboy wrote:So it doesn't matter if they die? They are best protected by vaccination and high levels of vaccination in other children. ffs think before you post.
It's all about risk v's reward.
In old people its a no brainer to get vaccinated the risk of sickness or death from the Covid is very real, while the risk from the vaccine low and being near the end of life cycle any unknown long term effects from vaccine not such a big deal.
As we know the risk of Covid diminishes with age to a point where those below 12 the odds of real sickness in a healthy child is super super rare, the benefits of the vaccine hence also diminish quickly, but does the vaccine risk diminish???
Common sense says no, a child is still growing and whether we like it or not we really don't know the long term effects of the vaccine especially on a child who has their whole life in front of them.
When weighing up the risk vs reward, risk of Covid, benefits of vaccine and risk of the unknown from vaccine for a child, i can't see how is worth it at this stage..
Personally i think I'm going to get a taste of what vaccine mandates feel like for some people if my 8 year old daughter has to quarantine when entering Indo if not vaxed, im going to be in the position of having decide to get her Covid vaxed when i really don't want too or putting the whole family through possibly 7 to 10 days of quarantine if she is unvaxed.
It would be easy for me to just get her vaxed and take the easy way out, but what happens if they do discover a long term effect in a few years that affects kids and then im going to have to live knowing i caused it in a sense because i wasn't willing to go through 7 to 10 days quarantine.
It sucks if im put in that position.
Plus ideally id prefer her to get natural immunity and then get vaccinated if needed as gets older.
I think you have answered your own question with quarantine. No holiday is worth potentially harming your child. Do the quarantine.
Indo if you can find a single side effect of any vaccination occurring years later, please let me know. For the rest there have been 10,000 new cases in NSW in 5 days with that exponential increase predicted to continue nation wide. By January 10 when the child vaccination begins the cases will be sky high and the vaccination queues will be around the block. If I had a child in that age group I would book them in now. You always have the option to cancel if something changes.
blindboy wrote:Indo if you can find a single side effect of any vaccination occurring years later, please let me know. For the rest there have been 10,000 new cases in NSW in 5 days with that exponential increase predicted to continue nation wide. By January 10 when the child vaccination begins the cases will be sky high and the vaccination queues will be around the block. If I had a child in that age group I would book them in now. You always have the option to cancel if something changes.
10,000 cases of runny noses. Yeah book it in. Feel the fear. Jab jab jab
I think the reason you will find no side effects years later is because vaccines have never been rushed through like this before dipshit, they go through proper trials.
I see burleigh is copying blowin's big tough manly agenda accusing anyone who takes covid seriously as being a big scaredy cat. Both aren't scared because they are just such big manly men. Only a matter of time until burleigh, the big virile man starts calling others softcocks and scared boomers.
They are nothing more than two blokes who go for toxic masculinity to make up for their complete absence of medical expertise.
Such big strong men.
This might be an interesting read.
https://www.canadiancovidcarealliance.org/media-resources/the-pfizer-ino...
Vic Local wrote:I see burleigh is copying blowin's big tough manly agenda accusing anyone who takes covid seriously as being a big scaredy cat. Both aren't scared because they are just such big manly men. Only a matter of time until burleigh, the big virile man starts calling others softcocks and scared boomers.
They are nothing more than two blokes who go for toxic masculinity to make up for their complete absence of medical expertise.
Such big strong men.
This is the pot calling the kettle black isn’t it?
blindboy wrote:Indo if you can find a single side effect of any vaccination occurring years later, please let me know. For the rest there have been 10,000 new cases in NSW in 5 days with that exponential increase predicted to continue nation wide. By January 10 when the child vaccination begins the cases will be sky high and the vaccination queues will be around the block. If I had a child in that age group I would book them in now. You always have the option to cancel if something changes.
If you can give us the data on previous mRNA vaccines please share it . I took your advice BB knowing I could cancel , only problem is no matter what postcode I put in I got the same result . 
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Supafreak wrote:blindboy wrote:Indo if you can find a single side effect of any vaccination occurring years later, please let me know. For the rest there have been 10,000 new cases in NSW in 5 days with that exponential increase predicted to continue nation wide. By January 10 when the child vaccination begins the cases will be sky high and the vaccination queues will be around the block. If I had a child in that age group I would book them in now. You always have the option to cancel if something changes.
If you can give us the data on previous mRNA vaccines please share it .
The stupidity of Blindboy never ceases to amaze
burleigh wrote:Supafreak wrote:blindboy wrote:Indo if you can find a single side effect of any vaccination occurring years later, please let me know. For the rest there have been 10,000 new cases in NSW in 5 days with that exponential increase predicted to continue nation wide. By January 10 when the child vaccination begins the cases will be sky high and the vaccination queues will be around the block. If I had a child in that age group I would book them in now. You always have the option to cancel if something changes.
If you can give us the data on previous mRNA vaccines please share it .
The stupidity of Blindboy never ceases to amaze
Look back up at my post I’ve added something
burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Hypocrisy…does bite the arse of stupid idiots.
Your not going to mention the 2 people that came in with heart pain after the jab in 2 hours? Yet you’re trying to say I’m a hypocrite for not wanting an experimental vaccine but happy for a dr to treat my kids broken arm? Hahahahaha
Don’t tell me that you still believe that you need to drink cows milk for calcium? Haha what next you still believe in Santa? Or god?
I believe hypocrisy is a very distasteful trait. Lol.
Also, I’m not going to comment on any stories you make up to suit your bias. Only 2?…I’m surprised it wasn’t a revolving door of hundreds and hundreds of the newly vaxxed having severe side effects.
supa the tga have not finalised the roll out procedures so booking might not be open yet. Maybe ask your gp what is going on they might have their own list.
Anyone that thinks Omicron is just the flu. Needs to think a little wider. Many more issues arising than just treating the virus. Far wider ramifications are starting to appear.
Roadkill wrote:Anyone that thinks Omicron is just the flu. Needs to think a little wider. Many more issues arising than just treating the virus. Far wider ramifications are starting to appear.
Nah not the flu, more like the common cold.
Roadkill wrote:burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Hypocrisy…does bite the arse of stupid idiots.
Your not going to mention the 2 people that came in with heart pain after the jab in 2 hours? Yet you’re trying to say I’m a hypocrite for not wanting an experimental vaccine but happy for a dr to treat my kids broken arm? Hahahahaha
Don’t tell me that you still believe that you need to drink cows milk for calcium? Haha what next you still believe in Santa? Or god?
I believe hypocrisy is a very distasteful trait. Lol.
Also, I’m not going to comment on any stories you make up to suit your bias. Only 2?…I’m surprised it wasn’t a revolving door of hundreds and hundreds of the newly vaxxed having severe side effects.
A boomer using “lol” is also a distasteful trait.
indo-dreaming wrote:blindboy wrote:So it doesn't matter if they die? They are best protected by vaccination and high levels of vaccination in other children. ffs think before you post.
It's all about risk v's reward.
In old people its a no brainer to get vaccinated the risk of sickness or death from the Covid is very real, while the risk from the vaccine low and being near the end of life cycle any unknown long term effects from vaccine not such a big deal.
As we know the risk of Covid diminishes with age to a point where those below 12 the odds of real sickness in a healthy child is super super rare, the benefits of the vaccine hence also diminish quickly, but does the vaccine risk diminish???
Common sense says no, a child is still growing and whether we like it or not we really don't know the long term effects of the vaccine especially on a child who has their whole life in front of them.
When weighing up the risk vs reward, risk of Covid, benefits of vaccine and risk of the unknown from vaccine for a child, i can't see how is worth it at this stage..
Personally i think I'm going to get a taste of what vaccine mandates feel like for some people if my 8 year old daughter has to quarantine when entering Indo if not vaxed, im going to be in the position of having decide to get her Covid vaxed when i really don't want too or putting the whole family through possibly 7 to 10 days of quarantine if she is unvaxed.
It would be easy for me to just get her vaxed and take the easy way out, but what happens if they do discover a long term effect in a few years that affects kids and then im going to have to live knowing i caused it in a sense because i wasn't willing to go through 7 to 10 days quarantine.
It sucks if im put in that position.
Plus ideally id prefer her to get natural immunity and then get vaccinated if needed as gets older.
In your position ID I would be talking to my GP
blindboy wrote:supa the tga have not finalised the roll out procedures so booking might not be open yet. Maybe ask your gp what is going on they might have their own list.
when they arrive I’m all for prioritising to the vulnerable kids whose parents are consenting for it , same as the frontline medical staff and elderly ( well were they ? ) were prioritised . I’m happy to wait but at this stage I’m about 95% unconvinced. I will be talking to my daughters doctor who is very good ( lots of letters after her name ) and she has 5 children aged from 5 to 14 .
It would have been nice if the government had taken Petrovsky more seriously and backed him , he has more experience with vaccines than anyone in Australia, only backing mRNA as we go forward is , I believe a mistake .
Vlad much agree vax anti peoples worry test of vaccine too small.
4 billion dose just of is very small sample. Vlad read vax anti expert on Web say think good scientist never release drug if not test on at least 1 billion mice then 5 billion peasant is no bad reaction so be prove safe.
Good is only 1 billion more dose to peoples and is get enough data for vax anti peoples be happy.
I focus wrote:indo-dreaming wrote:blindboy wrote:So it doesn't matter if they die? They are best protected by vaccination and high levels of vaccination in other children. ffs think before you post.
It's all about risk v's reward.
In old people its a no brainer to get vaccinated the risk of sickness or death from the Covid is very real, while the risk from the vaccine low and being near the end of life cycle any unknown long term effects from vaccine not such a big deal.
As we know the risk of Covid diminishes with age to a point where those below 12 the odds of real sickness in a healthy child is super super rare, the benefits of the vaccine hence also diminish quickly, but does the vaccine risk diminish???
Common sense says no, a child is still growing and whether we like it or not we really don't know the long term effects of the vaccine especially on a child who has their whole life in front of them.
When weighing up the risk vs reward, risk of Covid, benefits of vaccine and risk of the unknown from vaccine for a child, i can't see how is worth it at this stage..
Personally i think I'm going to get a taste of what vaccine mandates feel like for some people if my 8 year old daughter has to quarantine when entering Indo if not vaxed, im going to be in the position of having decide to get her Covid vaxed when i really don't want too or putting the whole family through possibly 7 to 10 days of quarantine if she is unvaxed.
It would be easy for me to just get her vaxed and take the easy way out, but what happens if they do discover a long term effect in a few years that affects kids and then im going to have to live knowing i caused it in a sense because i wasn't willing to go through 7 to 10 days quarantine.
It sucks if im put in that position.
Plus ideally id prefer her to get natural immunity and then get vaccinated if needed as gets older.
In your position ID I would be talking to my GP
Yeah good idea! A GP that I’f he or she says anything against the vaccine roll out can loose their licence.
Great suggestion………… not
Why would a government ignore this bloke ? https://www.science.org.au/covid19/experts/nikolai-petrovsky
“Indo if you can find a single side effect of any vaccination occurring years later, please let me know.”
Probably a reasonable statement for live-attenuated vaccines BB.
Causal relationships are notoriously difficult to establish when there has been a large interval between the initial intervention and the disease. Smoking and asbestos are two good examples that both took basically decades to establish causation.
But with mRNA/RNA vaccines you have to remember they work by producing spike protein on your cell membrane which triggers an immune response to produce antibodies against the spike protein.
Do these spike proteins go away with time?
Do boosters add more spike proteins on top of the existing spike proteins?
Will say, 5-10 boosters simply cover the cell membrane in spike protein?
Nobody knows the answers to these questions.
Even if the spike proteins on the cell membrane diminish over time, with each booster they regrow again and presumably the risk resets. With traditional vaccines, if you do not have initial side effects then generally you are unlikely ever to have them with subsequent boosters.
But with their different mechanism of action, the long term safety and delayed side effects of mRNA/RNA are simply unknown.
Having said that, the mRNA vaccines do have efficacy and reduce the severity of disease.
But other questions remain with regards to recurrent boosters and vaccinating children.
Nobody knows what will happen and possibly the risk-benefit ratio may reverse over time. There is no way to know.
Either way, whatever you think of vaccines, I think everyone should research early simple treatment options and consult your GP about at home treatment. There are quite a few prescription and non-prescription options to treat Covid at home which may be very beneficial to everyone if you happen to get Covid
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia