House prices

Blowin's picture
Blowin started the topic in Friday, 9 Dec 2016 at 10:27am

House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?

Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.

Cheers

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Monday, 17 Jun 2024 at 9:59pm

Maybe, it would be good to see. I read euro news more or less regularly and the problems discussed there are the same to what is discussed here. There are other variables that need to be considered like the size of the property. I wrote about this before; in many other countries people live in tiny appartments. Hence, the property price is lower than Aus but price per sqm is higher than here. Theoretically speaking, we could solve the housing crisis with mass demolition of houses and conversion into hundreds of thousands of 30-60 sqm. appartments. I’m not advocating for this, just highlighting the challenges regarding global metrics and comparisons. Even the best research I found on the topic struggles with this.

flollo's picture
flollo's picture
flollo Monday, 17 Jun 2024 at 10:11pm
velocityjohnno wrote:
stunet wrote:
flollo wrote:
velocityjohnno wrote:
stunet wrote:
velocityjohnno wrote:

Here's a great vid that may be of interest to Flollo and perhaps Stu as well:

Cheers VJ, I'll watch it tonight.

I sometimes marvel how you come across these vids. I get into algo-ruts yet you find the good stuff - the algo-groove.

I guess my mind is all over the place with interests, it's turbo charged and usually is operating on 2-3 levels at once, very hard to learn meditation, having to slow it down. I'll spare you the alchemical stuff (mind blowing). My Ms grew up isolated on a farm at the edge of the wheatbelt, silence in the mind is her default, so different. Stu I think the bit you might get from it is that when you have a coherent community, this kind of construction and improvement in amenities works. I had such debates with Dad (who was a town planner of that idealistic 1960s generation) after surveying what was left of such buildings and the inherent social rot in the 2000s. I can see he was right in this respect. I would argue that once you dilute or change the community, anomie and alienation are introduced, and these projects become nightmares.

Further to Croydon stuff above, I reckon I have seen the end game of the mass immigration into cities and it looks like this. For this reason I'd caution against it, but feel that parts of Melbourne and Sydney will go exactly the same way.

Edit: Don, yep Lendlease, it was Aussies profiting from it lmao! Is Lendlease the big union builder?

VJ, that was a great video. Thanks for sharing, there's a lot to unpack here. I worked for Lendlease for 7 years. We did some good projects. It's a great company to work for.

Like Flollo said, a lot to unpack.

The thing I kept reflecting on was the struggle to find a balance between the ills of both socialism and capitalism.

On the surface it appeared a good decision by Thatcher to introduce right to buy for social housing. Fits the stated aim of citizens caring more for personal property, things they've worked hard to buy, over the communal houses given to them.

Yet opened to the market, the forces of capitalism devoured the scheme; bought up en masse by wealthy syndicates.

Yep it all went wrong in many ways. I got to see what it was vs what it became, can remember the bottled milk being delivered, empty bottles returned; and everything being high trust - and have seen what has happened. So we went to the cemetery to pay our respects, and the staff were quizzing us on how to get into Australia...

FWIW Dad's opinion as a planner was that the ideal urban size was about 750,000 people, above that and decay/anomie/alienation overtakes the benefits of services accumulating in one area.

There you have it, what a mess.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/birmingham-uk-bankrupt-cutting-pu...

In a way, Australia is a victim of its own success. The whole world wants to come here. It’s relentless. I work for a multinational company and every time we advertise for a new role we get overwhelmed by hundreds of applicants trying to get to Aus. And many of them are US, UK, EU citizens trying to get out.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 12:37am
velocityjohnno wrote:
stunet wrote:
flollo wrote:
velocityjohnno wrote:
stunet wrote:
velocityjohnno wrote:

Here's a great vid that may be of interest to Flollo and perhaps Stu as well:

Cheers VJ, I'll watch it tonight.

I sometimes marvel how you come across these vids. I get into algo-ruts yet you find the good stuff - the algo-groove.

I guess my mind is all over the place with interests, it's turbo charged and usually is operating on 2-3 levels at once, very hard to learn meditation, having to slow it down. I'll spare you the alchemical stuff (mind blowing). My Ms grew up isolated on a farm at the edge of the wheatbelt, silence in the mind is her default, so different. Stu I think the bit you might get from it is that when you have a coherent community, this kind of construction and improvement in amenities works. I had such debates with Dad (who was a town planner of that idealistic 1960s generation) after surveying what was left of such buildings and the inherent social rot in the 2000s. I can see he was right in this respect. I would argue that once you dilute or change the community, anomie and alienation are introduced, and these projects become nightmares.

Further to Croydon stuff above, I reckon I have seen the end game of the mass immigration into cities and it looks like this. For this reason I'd caution against it, but feel that parts of Melbourne and Sydney will go exactly the same way.

Edit: Don, yep Lendlease, it was Aussies profiting from it lmao! Is Lendlease the big union builder?

VJ, that was a great video. Thanks for sharing, there's a lot to unpack here. I worked for Lendlease for 7 years. We did some good projects. It's a great company to work for.

Like Flollo said, a lot to unpack.

The thing I kept reflecting on was the struggle to find a balance between the ills of both socialism and capitalism.

On the surface it appeared a good decision by Thatcher to introduce right to buy for social housing. Fits the stated aim of citizens caring more for personal property, things they've worked hard to buy, over the communal houses given to them.

Yet opened to the market, the forces of capitalism devoured the scheme; bought up en masse by wealthy syndicates.

Yep it all went wrong in many ways. I got to see what it was vs what it became, can remember the bottled milk being delivered, empty bottles returned; and everything being high trust - and have seen what has happened. So we went to the cemetery to pay our respects, and the staff were quizzing us on how to get into Australia...

FWIW Dad's opinion as a planner was that the ideal urban size was about 750,000 people, above that and decay/anomie/alienation overtakes the benefits of services accumulating in one area.

I'm surprised VJ, I wouldn't have thought that a city the size of the Gold Coast would be the ideal urban size.
Lots of traffic, lots of alienation etc.
Maybe good in that a city that size can support a cultural scene such as arts.
I look at Cairns at 160k and think yeah, not too big not too small, still with all services and arts and culture but very little traffic issues.
But I've always liked towns with a population of maybe 30k - all services, a compact town centre that is highly walkable, virtually zero traffic issues and a real sense of community although you might have to settle for a reduction in quality art/theatre/music if that's your thing.
Anyway I think towns the size of Armidale, Albany, Ballina are great, maybe even smaller ones like Warwick, Esperance or Ulladulla.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 7:41am
Supafreak wrote:

@flollo , what other countries, that aren’t on this list , are experiencing similar housing affordability problems ?

Most of Europe, i saw a You tube video on Portugal being the worst in Europe a while back, but you would expect there is other areas around the world even developing countries in the cities.

Surely Bali for locals, Maldives due to no land.

Its more a problem in developed western countries though developing countries outside of cities generally dont have the issue, as if more land is needed its there they generally dont have the limitations of zoning and environmental protections that restrict land available. (Bali is different they have stricter zonings, even some building restrictions etc)

And then building cost are low, because being a tradie is generally a low paying job because in many countries like Indonesia, anyone can be a builder, electrician, plumber, you can start a business tomorrow if you think you can do the job.

And there often isnt all these building codes and regulation's, for instance in Indonesia to build you get a building permit that is very easy to get in most provinces you dont even need plans, and once you have the permit you dont need any inspections or tick off's and even though getting a permit is easy and cheap many don't even bother.

Dont get me wrong all these things in the West are part of the reason we aren't third world and we have areas protected and that who ever builds your house has the skills and it is built to a certain standard and for example when a natural disaster hits your house has more chance of still standing etc.

But all these things also see us having very high land and housing prices compared to developing countries. (comparing average income to property prices)

Of course there are also other factors too.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 8:50am

“ And there often isnt all these building codes and regulation's, for instance in Indonesia to build you get a building permit that is very easy to get in most provinces you dont even need plans, and once you have the permit you dont need any inspections or tick off's and even though getting a permit is easy and cheap many don't even bother.“ @ indo , you can’t be serious , I don’t know about the rest of indo but currently building in bali is a very very slow process with so many boxes to tick , permits currently are taking months even a year to get and you must have architects drawings etc etc then you get a final inspection once building is done . It’s harder on locals currently building as bule’s pay bribes to have things ticked off earlier but with new government in, things have slowed down big time . Where I’m staying , agus is having a very hard time getting a simple yoga barn construction cleared for the go ahead and a bule friend has been waiting 8 months to get his building permit . I think things have changed significantly since you were last in indo .

andy-mac's picture
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andy-mac Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 9:12am
Supafreak wrote:

“ And there often isnt all these building codes and regulation's, for instance in Indonesia to build you get a building permit that is very easy to get in most provinces you dont even need plans, and once you have the permit you dont need any inspections or tick off's and even though getting a permit is easy and cheap many don't even bother.“ @ indo , you can’t be serious , I don’t know about the rest of indo but currently building in bali is a very very slow process with so many boxes to tick , permits currently are taking months even a year to get and you must have architects drawings etc etc then you get a final inspection once building is done . It’s harder on locals currently building as bule’s pay bribes to have things ticked off earlier but with new government in, things have slowed down big time . Where I’m staying , agus is having a very hard time getting a simple yoga barn construction cleared for the go ahead and a bule friend has been waiting 8 months to get his building permit . I think things have changed significantly since you were last in indo .

When we were building in Bali in 00's there were heaps of loops to jump through.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 11:59am

Yep Bali is very different to the rest of Indonesia like complete opossite, it's has both land zonings and building process is much more strict, the things i read and hear on legal social media groups including cost for permits etc just blows me away or stories from friends married to Indonesian's who have tried to build there, and just the cost to build also seems much higher than elsewhere in Indo.

But its just a total different market and situation to the rest of Indonesia, although you will probably find more hurdles to jump in places like Lombok and maybe Jakarta too.

But the rest of Indonesia is the total opposite, my wife's sister and brother have built recently in Java and I know those that have in Sumatra.

With ease and cost there is also a often a big huge difference for 100% locals to an area to say even other Indonesians that are not local to area and then of course bule.

With the surf house in 2017 i made sure we had every permit and licence needed to build and operate and to cover our butts and we have all kinds of permit's and licences even tourism licences but it didnt take that long or cost much, but of course if i tried to do it myself or even my wife they would probably slow the process down fishing for $$$ and just charge a lot more.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 1:27pm
AndyM wrote:

I'm surprised VJ, I wouldn't have thought that a city the size of the Gold Coast would be the ideal urban size.
Lots of traffic, lots of alienation etc.
Maybe good in that a city that size can support a cultural scene such as arts.
I look at Cairns at 160k and think yeah, not too big not too small, still with all services and arts and culture but very little traffic issues.
But I've always liked towns with a population of maybe 30k - all services, a compact town centre that is highly walkable, virtually zero traffic issues and a real sense of community although you might have to settle for a reduction in quality art/theatre/music if that's your thing.
Anyway I think towns the size of Armidale, Albany, Ballina are great, maybe even smaller ones like Warwick, Esperance or Ulladulla.

Take that ideal size and give it a monumental bottleneck like the Barwon Heads bridge to shops area, pull up a deck chair, grab a beer and enjoy the chaos in summer. And that's after the bridge has been rebuilt.

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 1:28pm
velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 1:32pm
flollo wrote:

There you have it, what a mess.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/birmingham-uk-bankrupt-cutting-pu...

In a way, Australia is a victim of its own success. The whole world wants to come here. It’s relentless. I work for a multinational company and every time we advertise for a new role we get overwhelmed by hundreds of applicants trying to get to Aus. And many of them are US, UK, EU citizens trying to get out.

Yep agree to that. Also the Saffa expats. Brum will go full peaky blinders, maybe with a Krishna fusion.

basesix's picture
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basesix Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 1:36pm

^ haha, yep, the brummie balti ain't going nowhere.. maybe just woodfire cooked in the near future..

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 8:15pm

https://www.9news.com.au/national/cfmeu-victoria-pay-rise-nets-construct...

mwhahaha, not inflationary at all

RBA gets trigger finger itchy

State debt is so high and has already hit the iceberg and she's sinking, but just goes and lines up 2nd iceberg

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 9:02pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/cfmeu-victoria-pay-rise-nets-construct...

mwhahaha, not inflationary at all

RBA gets trigger finger itchy

State debt is so high and has already hit the iceberg and she's sinking, but just goes and lines up 2nd iceberg

20% is a big rise, but considering that it’s only really keeping up with inflation, imagine how much the average Joe is going backwards if their wage stays the same - their buying power is going down the toilet.
Pretty concerning.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 9:14pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/cfmeu-victoria-pay-rise-nets-construct...

mwhahaha, not inflationary at all

RBA gets trigger finger itchy

State debt is so high and has already hit the iceberg and she's sinking, but just goes and lines up 2nd iceberg

victoria must literally be on the brink of being a basket case...

but more immigration will fix it

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sypkan Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 9:25pm

re. flollo's point and following discussion above

there was an interesting number getting around a few weeks ago, that fell off the radar like a lead balloon...

something like...

'if australians lived like they did 20 years ago, we'd have a surplus of 1 million houses'

I believe this was referring to we are all in larger houses with less people in them...

houses get bigger and bigger... and family units breaking down, means one parent, plus their 1.7 children living in them 50% of the time...

no fixing that

but interesting

flollo's picture
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flollo Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 10:06pm

Yes, you are 100% correct. There are some good, reputable resources on this. This recent article summaries it well:

‘In 1960, our average new homes measured about 100 sq metres. By 1984, it reached about 162 sq metres. Now, it’s more than 230 sq metres.’

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/08/homes-on-steroids...

The fact is, this country had cheap housing when living in a modest, mass produced, 2-3 bedroom 1 bathroom houses was the norm. Your typical 14 x 8m footprint. You would think this would go further down with increased urbanisation however, it’s gone the other way. And quite extremely to be honest. The result; huge cities with endless urban sprawl. Very car dependent and a nightmare for public transport planning and investment.

flollo's picture
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flollo Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 10:26pm

And on the same topic, this article puts things into perspective. It also shows one of my favourite metrics - residential floor space per capita.

https://shrinkthatfootprint.com/how-big-is-a-house/

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 19 Jun 2024 at 2:32pm

That smaller size 3x1 at 162m2 is about all I'd really want tbh
Just put it on more & more prestigious locations haha
And shed space, can never have enough.

One thing I've noticed here is that you can get a modest house on a tiny block with no space outside for big $$$ in a new development, or you can go to an older suburb and pick up a beaut 60's 70's modernist house on up to twice the land space with yard (open to driveway and includes shed, space to store a van/boat as driveway extends into the backyard, outside dining area, heaps of room for kids to play etc) and a much better natural light design - for about the same coin. Absolute no brainer for me, I'd go the older one, no idea why so many young crew jump at the new estates and FA space. Maybe cos the older house isn't new, even though it is more simple and more functionally designed.

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andy-mac Wednesday, 19 Jun 2024 at 5:29pm

Mmm

https://m.

&pp=ygUQcHVudGVycyBwb2xpdGljcw%3D%3D

ashsam's picture
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ashsam Wednesday, 19 Jun 2024 at 6:50pm

Never trust a man with a moustache and ear ring lol
Don’t need to be a rocket science to figure that out.
They are in in to make money.

soggydog's picture
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soggydog Wednesday, 19 Jun 2024 at 7:10pm

Forget your prejudices and focus on the content . Like AW did a couple of weeks ago regarding the gas scam, you’ll find this guy is pretty on to it.

ashsam's picture
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ashsam Wednesday, 19 Jun 2024 at 7:22pm

Yeah those YouTubers got it sorted lol

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Thursday, 27 Jun 2024 at 12:32pm

No doubt you all saw the CPI coming in at 4% vs 3.6% expectations. XJO saw it, getting pummelled today. RBA's finger still on the trigger.

Maybe it's Sypy keeping the Australian economy up, if he has anything to do with NDIS:

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2024/06/australian-economy-on-public-se...

Keep up the good work, for the rest of us, we will have to work out 'how to even productivity?!'.

Burnout Economics:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/graph-reveals-wor...

"While a recession has so far been avoided, along with the much higher level of unemployment that generally comes with it. When it comes to metrics that are defined by the performance of the economy at an individual household level, some have seen a decline in living standards (as measured by real household disposable income per capita) worse than every recession in the last 50 years.

The rising risk now is that as the economy continues to slow and the extremely high levels of migration supporting headline growth begin to fade, the nation’s economy could end up falling into a recession anyway.

On the other side of the coin the large injections of additional cash from the federal government and selected state governments may end up helping to keep the economy out of recession, but there are concerns that this could result in inflation and interest rates staying higher for longer.

Ultimately, its something of a Catch-22 set of circumstances where no option is truly ideal, only less worse than the alternative, or so the policymakers pursuing that option hope it will be."

And with that image, what better than a tender reflection; an homage, even; to the great 3.8L Ecotec, that trusty and reliable provider of mang? Just picture these guys as the Aussie economy:

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truebluebasher Thursday, 27 Jun 2024 at 1:30pm

1989 Reedy Creek central [M1] GC open complex
Single Garage $300k Double Garage $400k T'House $740k Duplex $860 Tce $990k Home $1.1m
Neighbour's Townhouse just sold for $720,000...Ok...all sounds in order!

But here's the inside word!

Never once was a photo shared of this Townhouse.
Just a real estate agent that sold it by word of mouth as quick as ya like.
Snapped up by Sydney couple without ever seeing a Photo.
Recall them Old Days of Renos to please Fussy Home inspections...Wotz that tbb?

All in all we're just another brick their faceless faith based compound wall.
[ Nuthin' Without God ] That was our Holy Town's best ever Home Sales Promo.
Turn on yer Evangelist Telly : Faith in their cotton wool bud is what they all die for!
Same as it ever was...

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 1 Jul 2024 at 2:09pm

How Spain's anti-tourists defeated Airbnb:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/great-spanish-airbnb-crackdown/

someone actually went out and protested

flollo's picture
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flollo Monday, 1 Jul 2024 at 4:56pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

How Spain's anti-tourists defeated Airbnb:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/great-spanish-airbnb-crackdown/

someone actually went out and protested

Not really. Tourism is huge in Spain and most are not against it. But it’s gone to extreme levels in some places.

andy-mac's picture
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andy-mac Wednesday, 3 Jul 2024 at 7:12am

Never seen so many for sale signs as last weekend in my neighbourhood, southern Sunny Coast....
Related maybe?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-03/first-home-buyers-turning-to-rent...

flollo's picture
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flollo Wednesday, 3 Jul 2024 at 11:36am

Maybe? But I still can’t see any prices dropping?

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flollo Wednesday, 3 Jul 2024 at 11:42am

.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Thursday, 11 Jul 2024 at 10:53pm

Dedicated to 35,000 Cashed up VIP Spanish/UK Tourists rising record rental Prices.
Be careful wot ya wish for...it might come true...

Spanish spray 35 Tourists with Water
https://www.euronews.com/travel/2024/07/08/fake-signs-and-hunger-strikes...

Germans fire water canons on 35 thousand Riotous Spanish Hooligans

2024 Euro Germany
9% Extra o/s Bookings
Pre Comp Top 5 UK > Netherlands > Swiss > Austria > US (Can add Spain in there!)
Finals Price Increase > Flights rise 5.5x > Hotels rise 3x (Avg Pre Finals)
Cheapest Package Ticket $1,150 London Flight $902 Room $4,000
Them prices rise by the nanosecond not second...fans 'd laugh at that...
News reckon ya need $29,000 minimum from UK!

UK - Berlin Flights Usual $268 > Up 450%
Final (rtn Flights) $902 London / $1,473 Manchester (Rising $100/hr)
Airbnb min Pre Finals increase on contract price = Extra $150 or wear cement boots
Note many below prices are prioritized to Frequent Flyers / Supporter Clubs
Ya gotta be in the Club to access a Ballot Draw...otherwise...pay up!
UK S/F Tickets = $32,000
https://www.90min.com/how-much-does-euro-2024-final-ticket-cost
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/scramble-semis-england-fans-face-111641990.html
Finals Tickets Start $1,150 > $30,500 (7,000/hr drooling of them cheap prices!)

UK Newspaper reckons ya currently need $29,000 just to get near the UK (vs) Spain Final.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/article/2024/jul/11/england-fans-co...

Games Stadium Hotels $Avg / Only (Sudden $Rise % + 2023-24 Booking % rise!)

4x 71k Berlin Final Cheapest was $115 now $4,000 o/n (3,400% rise!)
4x 50k Gelsenkirchen $884 (181%) Bookings 23-24 +786%
4x 66k Munich (94%) 23-24 +124%
5x 62k Dortmund $815 (188%) 3x / Bookings 23-24 +329%
4x 51k Stuttgart $886 (104%)
4x 49k Hamburg
4x 47k Frankfurt 23-24 +62%
3x 47k Dusseldorf
5x 43k Cologne (50%)
3x 40k Leipzig Bookings 23-24 + 570%

This is similar to Oz peak Silly Season Seaside Invasion.

2032 Brizzo Olympics Guide
Peak Rentals / Hotels Rises Regional +50%- CBD +200%
$Airbnb (Add a couple $100 bribe ) > $ Hotels 3x > $ Flights 5x
That's exclusive to VIP Club Member's...
Not for the crew...Sorry!