Three weeks ago the East Coast received one of the largest south swells of the year, but, as has been typical for 2018, it was a solitary event. A few days after the swell hit the waves were again tiny, and aside from the occasional mid-range spike the East Coast has remained that way.

Heading into spring, a season notorious for periods of low energy, things weren’t looking good for Australia’s right coast surfers. Consecutive blocking highs were parking themselves in the Tasman Sea pushing low pressure systems south, and with an absence of trade swell to the north the result was surfing doldrums.

Fortunately however, East Surfers will find some reprieve next week when a fresh southerly swell pattern establishes itself.

As is often the case, the southerly pattern is a product of the Long Wave Trough (LWT) moving into place. Last weekend a node of the LWT directed storms towards southern WA, with a large swell making landfall across the SW, and this week, as the LWT has shifted east, South Oz and Victoria have received great waves.

Right now a node of the LWT is positioned near Tasmania with the first of a series of SW swells due to hit the island state tomorrow. The very first swell will have favourable winds for many of the south-facing waves, and you can read about that swell in this article. Larger swells will the Tasmania on Sunday and Tuesday though winds may be problematic.

Forecast position of the Long Wave Trough next Monday

This weekend the LWT will move yet further east, forming a low pressure corridor up into the Tasman Sea and surfers in the region will immediately see benefits.

On Monday a mid-range south swell will glance the East Coast, stronger in the south, though it’ll be accompanied by fresh southerly winds, rendering it less than ideal. However, a stronger swell will track up the coast mid-week, the product of a parent system that developed far to the SW of Tasmania and followed the Long Wave Trough into the Tasman Sea.

Like Monday’s swell it’ll only deliver a glancing blow, however the size and long-period nature (up over 15 seconds) will see south swell spots along the eastern seaboard come to life on Thursday. And though it’s still a week away, the long range forecast is predicting wind from the northern quadrant all day, further aiding those south-facing spots. See Swellnet's modelled Surf Forecast for size specifics, or even better read the Forecast Notes.

A day or so after each south swell brushes the East Coast, they'll also strike the west coast of New Zealand, plus the south facing Pacific coasts such as New Caledonia, Tonga, and Fiji. Again, you can read the specifics of that swell here.

// STU NETTLE