Forecast: Quiksilver Pro Gold Coast
A lot has gone down in the off season. Mick Fanning announced his retirement post this year's Rip Curl Pro, the Pipe Masters are off for the 2019 season, and you'll have to signup to Facebook to view live contests this year after a new deal was struck between WSL and the social media platform.
With the Vissla Sydney Surf Pro ending in mediocre windswell, all eyes are on the Gold Coast for the Quiksilver Pro which kicks off this coming weekend.
We'll likely hear the first hooter sound this Sunday - which is Day One - and there'll be no shortage of swell due through the waiting period.
During this week a slow-moving high will span Tasmania and the Tasman Sea as a couple of low pressure systems squeeze its north-eastern flank.
One, a likely tropical cyclone (named Hola) behind New Caledonia, and another off the tip of New Zealand's North Island will help setup a broad fetch of strong south-east winds, extending from New Zealand well into the Coral Sea.
This setup is expected to persist all week, strongest through Thursday evening and Friday morning before slowly weakening and breaking down over the weekend.
This will provide excellent warm up waves as mid-range south-east trade-swell develops across the Gold Coast from tomorrow afternoon through the weekend coming in at 3ft to occasionally 4ft off Snapper Rocks. It'll ease slowly from Saturday afternoon owing to the weakening ridge.
So come Sunday, the first day of the waiting period, we should see good surf in the 3ft+ range, easing very slowly during the day, down to 2-3ft early next week. Winds will be favourable as well with early morning southerly breezes, tending more south-east through the day, keeping Snapper relatively clean.
Fortunately, a new high pressure ridge is forecast to move into the Tasman Sea early next week as another tropical low/cyclone squeezes it from the north. This will generate a renewal of easterly trade-swell through the middle to end of next week with slightly less favourable east-southeast winds.
Overall, we're not likely to see the swell drop below 2-3ft for the forecast period.
Whether the aforementioned tropical low deepens further and drifts south closer to the Gold Coast next week is still unsure, but if it did we'd expect larger surf again from the north-east.
We'll provide running updates on this dynamic forecast period in the comment below.
Comments
Still some very significant divergence on the movement speed and track of Hola. EC is being much more favourable swell wise than GFS, albeit still a very fleeting pulse.
Yes, ECMWF has this for Sunday and if it comes off, we could expect a large pulse of E/SE groundswell next Tuesday.
Latest 00z GFS update still has TC Hola slipping away fast to the south-east still. The ridge looks to angled to support a stall IMO.
Holas just the first TC This month next week could be more promising out of the coral sea.
Agnes Yeppoon and Mackay are instore for an excellent run of south east trade wind swell
I know it's a very long way out, but I reckon the folks behind the Rip Curl Pro are nervous about the surf already. It's been absolutely shitful for months down here and the forecast for the foreseeable future is Easterly Easterly followed by more easterlies. It's just one ugly high pressure after another setting up under Tasmania.
The last time I saw things this bad, Surfing Vic shifted the whole shooting match down to PI.
VL, Indo is the same. Horrendous start/early season forecasts.
early easter always a worry. end frame on the wams looks positive. though yes still a long way out from easter to.
Yes plenty of easterlies down the peninsula, and have had some fun days with the banks good as the swell has been small. East and north east is good, much better than west and south but not for the West coast which would have been like a choppy lake I reckon. Maybe they could run it at Rippamatta.
'Rippamatta' ha corny but i like it!
Facebook?
I won't be watching.
Remember when the whole country was outraged by the Australia Card? Now everyone's on facebook. Someone watching every move they make. Its worse than Orwellian. Its a pretty frightening scenario, anyone, anywhere can punch your name into a computer and know where you are and what you're doing......not me
Hey bud, I'm actually not Spuddups. I'm from the CIA. We've been watching your activities here on Swellnet with interest. :-)
that's it. I'm going home...
Same here Matthew , won’t be signing up to face plant.
Since when does 3ft align itself with the words "plenty of swell". I hope the more exciting possibilities occur or its a toledo massacre.
Two weeks of at least 3ft point surf hasn't occurred at all this past season.
Snapper doesn’t hold a lot of size, so there’s not a lot of wiggle room - 3ft+ is midway between ‘too small’ and ‘too big’.
From an event point of view (logistics, media, continuity) the current forecast is great because (1) they are looking like they’ll be able to start from day one, (2) they’ll probably be able to run several consecutive days, and (3) they’ll be able to run it all at Snapper, and won’t have to relocate the comp to Dbah or Kirra.
Cheers @ eat your vegies
Would be classic to see it down gunna
Sounds underwhelming, is baldy competing this year?
Correct me if I'm wrong but the webcast hasn't migrated to Facebook yet?
Can still watch on WSL site?
Yeah you might be right. From Stu here.. https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2018/01/25/wsl-inks-exclusive-deal-facebook
"The switch to FB wont happen till the WSL thinks the viewing platform is as good or better then their current one. So it might happen from the very first comp of the year or it may take a while - not sure."
Track map out from JWTC. Has her strengthening just as she pokes her head out from behind New Cal. Intense system is forecast before she's whisked away to the TC graveyard. God help New Cal (including surrounding islands) if she comes in contact with them as she intensifies to 125knts!!
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1218.gif
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVING TRACK WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THIS, IN ADDITION TO THE CURRENT LAND INTERACTION AND RECENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
JWTC appear to be favouring more so the GFS track (quickly whisked away to the TC graveyard) whereas I note UKMET appears to be leaning more towards the EC track at least having it slow just as she pokes her head out from behind New Cal but they (UKMET) then do have her whisking away quickly throughout Sat night our time.
UKMET then forecasting the next TC to form north of the Gulf during the weekend. So GFS's other TC in the Coral sea in yesterdays runs seems to be a thing of the past now as none appear to have that in their forecasts now.
Hard to get too excited when the bank at snapper looks terrible! Hopefully they can pump some sand over the next week . It would be great to see some proper behind the rock snapper. It’s been a long time!
Your not wrong Hrp, the bank at Snapper has been very average lately, actually a lot better shape on the smaller swells, but a long wait for sets.
Wow 3’ to 4’ snapper, better fuel up the JetSki boys.
Tropical Cyclone Hola is now forecast to reach category 5 tomorrow but will drop really quickly south-southeast through the Gold Coast's swell window.
A fleeting but good pulse of E/SE groundswell should arrive Tuesday afternoon and build to 4ft off Snapper late, peak overnight and ease Wednesday.
Beyond this we're still looking a renewal of E/SE trade-swell from the interaction between a southward tracking tropical low and high in the Tasman Sea.
Well fck me, EC is coming on board with the Coral Sea developments later next week.
Very exciting, eh? Nothing like a dynamic forecast when there's a 'CT event in town.
I'm not counting my chickens just yet as historically whenever there's already a TC formed and on the charts, their long range forecasts are questionable and highly subject to change.
Mikey Wright the WC again...probably my favourite surfer to watch right now...be good to see him in some punchy waves...
UKMET now on board with Coral Sea tropical low developments mid next week. Albeit only a moderate system forecast by them.
Anyone boots on the ground at Snapper lately ?
Whose been ripping ? Any standouts ?
I got boots on the ground there this morning........no surprises, Filipe looked electricity.
Fck me, latest GFS (12z) has gone gang busters with the Coral Sea TC
Yeah and 18z is holding.
ECMWF 12z has it more north and not as intense. We'll see how it resolves over the weekend.
Yeah EC not being so bullish. UKMET not even interested now. GFS certainly seems to be the outlier!!!
Ok fellas , give it to me straight.
Is Sunday looking like a kick off and if so is it going to be great , good , fair , shithouse or What the fuck are they thinking running it in this garbage ?
All things considered- sand, swell , winds.
Or maybe they’ll run the chicks ?
Opinions please.
I’m thinking of checking it out in the flesh. Got a bit of a masochist vibe running atm and I figure that a full day on the sand surrounded by a sea of hysterical Brazilian fanboys, frothing lubed up Goldy tards and untouchable bikini clad goddesses bookended by hours of white knuckle driving will take care of business .
Lol
I've been watching Snapper for the past week and haven't seen one decent ridden wave in that time. Now the swells dropping OUT.
IMO, swell's rarely an issue at Snapper. As long as winds are OK (and they're fine for the entire forecast period), the main concern for the Quik Pro is sand.
The current wind/swell pattern is ideal for smoothing out weird spots along the break, but that's assuming there's sand around the corner to begin with (and I'm not sure on the status of the pumping in recent months). D'Bah's been patchy (sand, and thus surf quality) for quite some time though.
GFS holding strong with this Coral Sea cyclone! Wow..
Even with EC's less favourable scenario - which keeps the system further north - we'd still see a fun small-to-moderate NE swell and then a resumption of punchy mid range E/NE tending E'ly swell from the ridge to its south.
Local sand aside, it's one of the best Quiksilver Pro outlooks in some time.
I heard from someone that they've brushed round 5 for this year...is this true?
Yes, they have changed format.
No round 5 and possibility of overlapping heats.
I've been at Snapper last 3 days, there's been a massive increase in sand flow in that time. Lots of sand now behind the rock into the first section.
Still raw as fcuk and needs time to settle but as Ben pointed out this regime of SE winds and longshore drift grooms the bank very quickly.
So do you think tomorrow would be a go for the men’s ?
I realise that no one wants to stick their necks out and and assume responsibility for an incorrect call . No dramas or repercussions if you’re wrong.
It’ll just mean I’ll be drinking goon from the bladder on your lawn instead of the low tide mark at Snapper.
And how’s your garden hose for length ? A few of the boys have decided to knock up their bongs in situ .
Cheers FR...reckon it's a huge improvement to condense into a shorter time frame
Agreed. If they've got sense, they will use from the start to give wriggle room for this (potential) TC in the Coral Sea.
More dollars than sense so far...
I reckon they will go for sure.
Cheers mate.
Im trying to pick a day too. As far as men or women, my head says they would start with the men? I’ve got my eye on Wednesday at this stage. I’ve made the day trip to Bells only for the women to be called on, it’s a gamble. Had a fun day regardless. I hear Kelly is pulling out tomorrow??
I’m hanging around the Byron area ATM trying to get some Super Crowded waves. The Super crowds have been no problem but the waves not so much. Anyway I got Malibu’d the other day and lost a fin. The only place that delivered service and solved the problem was the local Pawnbroker. Surf shops have become a poor facsimile of what s Surf Shop should be. I hope the Pawnbrokers takeover.
there's been some great lefts winding into d-bah. a sucky rip right near the wall too. windy as buggery and lots of sand moving north. angle of swell will play a large factor in quality of the wave thru snapper. hope it pumps and they catch as many waves as they can. no teabags please. one goofy from brasil is very impressive at moment.
Another day.. another GFS model run holding firm with a powerful tropical cyclone skirting the SE Qld region. Jeez, GFS has done very well with this system (so far) at long range.
EC is pushing it further south than previous runs (though still way north of GFS), and with a different structure too. Though it has additional swell sources that'll contribute plenty of east swell for the second half of next week.
So, the short story is we continue to see an excellent forecast period for the first week of the event. Could be all done and dusted by the end of the week.
Ukmet on board but has a very weak system similar to EC. So GFS is again the outlier in terms of intensity.
Geez I have never seen this amount of conversation about swell for Bells. It either is or it isn't.
We've built a live page where you can watch the stream and chat with other Swellnet fans.. over here!
https://www.swellnet.com/form-guide/2018/quiksilver-pro-gold-coast
Sweet, was just trying to find a link. Cheers!