We’ve got a blustery weekend ahead. It’s a classic winter frontal pattern, that may become supercharged thanks to a tropical infeed, courtesy of TC Karim.
As mentioned on Fri, a series of fronts pushing up from Heard Island bring quite an active week of mid-sized surf but finding windows of cleaner conditions will be a challenge.
A large high is now moving into the Tasman Sea and strengthening- that will be the main synoptic feature this week- setting up a deep ridge and a strong E’ly pattern through the Tasman Sea.
Further north an interior upper trough and potential coastal trough/surface low will combine to drive an intense E/NE to NE wind flow through the Coral and Northern Tasman Sea, generating a large swell for the CQ coast.
Further north an interior upper trough and potential coastal trough/surface low will combine to drive an intense E/NE to NE wind flow through the Coral and Northern Tasman Sea, generating a large stormsurf by Fri.
A large high is now moving into the Tasman Sea and strengthening- that will be the main synoptic feature this week- setting up a deep ridge and a strong E’ly pattern through the Tasman Sea. Further north an interior upper trough and potential coastal trough/surface low will combine to drive an intense E/NE to NE wind flow through the Coral and Northern Tasman Sea.
Generally light variable winds all week should keep conditions clean across all coasts.
Solid surf from the NE then holds through next weekend as a large fetch of E/NE to NE winds extends through the Tasman Sea.
GFS has the more bullish outlook, with a trough or potential surface low forming off the Fraser Coast and tracking south through Fri13th- energising a long E to NE fetch through the Central Tasman to Coral Sea. In effect, it’s a slightly less energised version of the June 2016 Black Nor-Easter set-up.
A generally poor weekend with fun surf Monday and a better swell for Wednesday.
