Few small days ahead before a good run of NE swell

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Increase in E/NE to NE swell Thurs/Fri
  • Great surf this Weekend with offshore winds
  • Small S swell pulses Mon/Tues


Small surf from the S Sat with 2ft of surf at S facing beaches. Size built into the 4-5ft range on Sun with mod SW winds and has eased back to 2ft today with W/SW winds, now tending NW.

This week and next (May 9 - 16)

A large high is now moving into the Tasman Sea and strengthening- that will be the main synoptic feature this week- setting up a deep ridge and a strong E’ly pattern through the Tasman Sea. Further north an interior upper trough and potential coastal trough/surface low will combine to drive an intense E/NE to NE wind flow through the Coral and Northern Tasman Sea, generating a solid NE swell which will reach Tasmania’s East Coast later this week . It hasn’t quite got the horsepower of the 2016 Black Nor-easter swell but we are still on track for a couple of days of solid NE swell.

In the short run we are looking at a couple of days of tiny surf, not exceeding 2ft through Tues and Wed with a mostly NW to N’ly flow.

Thursday sees NE swell start to build, up into the 3ft range during the a’noon, with mod/fresh NNE winds on offer.

Much stronger NE swell builds through Friday with sets to 4ft and offshore winds before a light S’ly change.

Well aimed and positioned fetch for NE swell for Fri/Sat

The weekend looks great with 3-5ft of NE swell on Sat and NW winds.

Size dips into the 2-3ft range Sun but with light W/NW winds on offer there should be a heap of fun waves to be had.

Into next week and NE swell slowly eases out of the mix Mon as a cold front sweeps across the state.

That should see a couple of days of moderate S swell Tues/Wed, and we’ll finesse the details on Wed. 

Check back then for the latest.