A much stronger intensification of the fetch occurs Wed, as strong to low end gale NE winds develop off Bass Strait, extending up off the Gippsland Coast.

A large (1025 hPa) high pressure system is currently drifting over Central NSW into the Tasman sea and this high pressure cell is expected to track SE, strengthen and  become slow moving as it meanders near the South Island for most of this week. That creates a summer-style synoptic pattern, with SE/ESE Tradewinds through the sub-tropics and a N’ly flow through temperate NSW.

A low pressure system developing north of New Zealand’s North Island drifts south to be over the North Island Wed, and while that blocks most of the fetch from generating swell for the East Coast, it does shoot out a fetch through Cook Strait Wed/Thurs which looks like a tidy source of ESE swell for the region Fri/Sat.

The first half of next week still looks fun.