Western Australian Forecast by Lorena Woortmann (issued Wednesday Jun 4)

Best Days: Perth for the keen tomorrow morning, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning, maybe next Wednesday

Features of the Forecast

• Easing W/SW swell tomorrow
• Poor conditions at Margs, possibly OK at Perth and Mandurah in the AM
• Improved forecast for the weekend with offshore winds
• SE/E winds Fri AM going light and variable in the PM
• SW swell Fri PM in the 6-8ft range at Margs and 3ft at Perth and Mandurah
• Easing on Sat with clean conditions
• Consistent SW pulse Sat night/ Sun AM in the 6ft to occ 8ft range at Margs
• E’ly winds shifting NE’ly through Sun as swell drops
• Modest W/SW pulse on Mon PM but winds turn onshore
• Lay day on Tue with easing swells and freshening onshores
• Consistent large W/SW swell for Wed
• Uncertain winds, but likely offshore as off now

Recap 

The past couple of days were a write off with a large W’ly swell filling in yesterday building up to 10ft in Margs, but with the approaching low pressure we saw blown out conditions under strong NNW winds since early morning, and a building NW windswell in the mix. 

The size dropped a little today but still stormy and unmanageable with showers on the coast.

This week and weekend (Jun 4 - 8)

For tomorrow there is not much change since Monday’s notes and the W/SW swell will continue to ease to 6ft at Margs and the winds strengthen out of the SW, and 3ft in Perth and Mandurah with slightly weaker winds. Perth is likely to see a morning S/SE breeze favouring protected spots. There is an underlying W/SW swell modest in size expected to fill in through the day and peaking in the afternoon, generated by a short lived but strong low south of Madagascar last weekend. This will build up to 5-6ft in Margs and 1-2ft to the north, but inconsistent due to the distance of the storm and wind affected.

Conditions for Friday onwards have improved since the last notes as the low is now pushing quicker towards the Bight, allowing high pressure to mover over the coast with weaker winds out of the SE on Friday morning in the South West and E at locations to the north, even going light and variable into the afternoon.

With this forecast now we’ll have a longer weekend of fun surf as we’re still expecting a couple of swells and favourable winds. First we have a long range SW pulse as mentioned in Monday’s notes, from frontal activity that followed the short lived low South of Africa. We should see more size into the afternoon, peaking in the 6-8ft range in Margs, 2-3ft Mandurah and 2ft in Perth.

Saturday is looking fun with the swell holding in the morning and slowly easing under moderate offshore winds that weaken through the day. 

Overnight a more consistent SW swell arrives from a broader fetch of frontal activity that developed over the already active sea state south of Africa, which moved in closer into the Indian and produced a more defined swell front. This will produce pumping, more consistent surf to 6ft to occasionally 8ft in Margs Sunday morning with fresh offshore winds that shift to NE as the size eases through the day.

Next week

Into next week we have two W/SW swells arriving, the first one is moderate in size and due Monday afternoon, produced by a disorganised but broad fetch southeast of Madagascar that will push the size back to the 6ft+ range later in the day in Margs. Winds look good in the morning as the swell builds with an E/NE offshore, shifting NW into the afternoon.

After hopefully getting surfed out, Tuesday is a day for rest as the size drops and onshore winds freshen through the day in the South West, while metro areas will have cleaner but very small surf in the morning. 

Then we are expecting a large W/SW’ly swell for Wednesday morning that will be produced much closer this time, by a tight low that formed west of WA on Sunday night. Winds are still up for grabs depending on how a front moving past the coast develops. If the Europan model EC is right and it moves over SA on Tuesday, we’ll have offshore winds with Margs going onshore later in the afternoon. The American version GFS forecasts the front to develop into a low moving northeasterly over the coast on Tuesday night, which would draw strong SW winds and produce blown out conditions.

Mandurah and Perth could be 2-3ft in the morning but bigger if the low pushes closer to the coast, and Margs in the 8-10ft range, but we will provide another update later in the week.