Solid pulses this weekend and next week with a quieter storm track into October

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Western Australian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri September 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Super long period W/SW swell Thurs/peaking Fri expect long waits for sets
  • Swell building Sat with onshore winds, peaking Sun with a window of offshore winds
  • Offshore winds possible Mon AM with solid surf
  • More solid pulses next week with brief windows of clean conditions in a general onshore flow
  • Quieter period into the first week of Oct- check back Mon for updates


Offshore winds through the mornings have opened up clean conditions in the SW after an extended period of onshore winds. Yesterday saw size in the 6ft+ range, easing during the day, 2-3ft and easing in Perth/Mandurah. Today is in the 3-5ft range between the Capes with dominant SW swell and some super long period (20 s)  W/SW swell showing with very inconsistent sets. This swell was generated by a huge storm near Southern Africa last weekend and is currently making landfall across the swell facing coastlines of WA and Indonesia. 

Mix of mid-period and long period swells today

This weekend and next week (Sep 22 - 29)

No change to the weekend outlook. A west coast trough moves inland and an approaching front brings a more onshore W/SW flow through Sat. Lighter SE winds are possible in Perth/Mandurah for the early. Surf-wise we’ll see a mix of todays easing long period swell, SW swell and new W/SW swell fill in to 5-6ft in the a’noon.

Much better winds Sun with a morning E/SE-SE flow and 6ft sets in the SW , smaller 2-3ft in Perth/Mandurah.

Solid surf lingers into Mon with a trough providing light NE-variable winds in the morning, tending NW in the a’noon as the trough moves inland and a weak front tips the state.

Into next week and a series of rolling disturbances across the Central Indian Ocean will provide multiple over-lapping swell trains with moderate sized swells in the 4-6ft range. 

Tues still looks the low point in size with 4ft surf and onshore winds. 

The first of the new swell pulses then arrives Wed and winds should be good as high pressure in the bight and a west coast trough combine to deliver a light E’ly flow and seabreezes across the SW corner. Expect sets to 6ft+, 2-3ft in Perth/Mandurah.

Trickier winds Thurs as the trough moves inland and a high pressure slips in bringing a SE flow tending S’ly through the day. Similar sized sets as Wed, easing a notch during the day.

Similar winds for Fri with residual swell holding surf in the 4-6ft range, 2-3ft in Perth/Mandurah.

A last pulse in the series arrives next weekend with a larger 6-8ft swell due Sat, although with a cold front tipping the state bringing onshore winds.

Longer term and the Indian Ocean storm track is more subdued going forwards, suggesting we’ll see a smaller, more spaced out series of swells going into the first week of October.

Craig will be back Mon so check back in then for the latest and have a great weekend!


PKsswellnet's picture
PKsswellnet's picture
PKsswellnet Friday, 22 Sep 2023 at 8:14pm

Hey Steve
thanks for the foecaste and the heads up on the long period swell.
The waves were at my fav novelty spot at first light when I was getting into my wetty . Long long long walls, fast moving and easy paddle ins at what is usually a bit of a fat burger. Kinda of long waits between pulses of 3 wave sets. If I had just looked at the swell buoy wave heights would not have bothered going to that spot. So thanks a lot got some fun ones with very few out.