Generally poor weekend, better next week
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday May 21st)
Best Days: Perth and Mandurah Sunday morning, protected spots Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday selected spots
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Mod-large, mid-period W/SW swell for tomorrow with strengthening NW tending W winds ahead of a late S change
- Easing swell Sun with stronger onshore winds in the South West, variable to the north in the AM
- Oversized, long-period SW groundswell for Mon with strong S/SW winds, easing slowly Tue with light, offshore, variable winds
- Smaller Wed with freshening E/NE tending NE and then N/NE winds
The surf cleaned up nicely yesterday along with Wednesday afternoon's swell hanging in there, coming in at 5-6ft across the South West, 2ft+ in Mandurah and 2ft across Perth.
This morning conditions were again clean but the surf smaller and on the ease.
This weekend and next week (May 22 - 28)
We'll see the surf pick right back up tomorrow, but unfortunately it'll come with onshore winds as a weakening trough linked to the swell generating system moves through.
We'll see a strengthening NW tending W'ly breeze in the South West, similar to the north but only swinging W'ly early afternoon along with all coasts swinging S'ly into the evening.
The swell due across the state was generated by a tight mid-latitude low earlier this week and we should see the South West come in around 6ft+ through the day, 2-3ft in Mandurah and 2ft across Perth.
Sunday should become cleaner across Perth and Mandurah with an E/SE offshore wind, tending variable ahead of a SW change early afternoon. Size wise the swell will ease a touch back to 2ft+ in Mandurah and 2ft across Perth while Margs will see poor conditions with a moderate to fresh SW breeze, strengthening through the day.
This strengthening onshore wind will be associated with the strong polar low that's currently just south-east of the Heard Island region, projecting up and into us, with our oversized SW groundswell mixed with mid-period energy still on track for Monday.
A fetch of storm-force W/SW winds are currently being generated with the low tracking east-northeast and the north-east up towards us while slowly weakening tomorrow. We'll then see strong S/SW winds projected into the coast through Monday adding the mid-period energy to the mix.
Size wise the South West should still reach 12ft with 15ft bombs due across the deepwater reefs and magnets, with Mandurah coming in around 4-5ft+ with the mix of windswelly stuff, 3-4ft in Perth.
Those strong S/SW winds will create poor conditions though, improving through Tuesday as winds shift light E/SE across all locations in the morning, possibly E/NE through the middle of the day and variable into the afternoon.
The oversized mix of swells should be on the ease, dropping from an easy 10ft across the South West in the morning, 3-4ft across Mandurah and 3ft in Perth.
Wednesday will be smaller and with moderate to fresh E/NE tending NE and then N/NE winds as a strong mid-latitude low starts to move in from the west.
The low will be slow moving and bring N'lyn winds into the end of the week along with an inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell with no major size, while some new swell from the mid-latitude low itself is due on the weekend. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!