A forecast for the keen

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 15th)

Best Days: Keen beans across the magnets in the South West tomorrow morning, Saturday morning, Monday, early Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small, inconsistent background energy for the weekend with morning offshore winds
  • Inconsistent SW groundswell building Mon with E/NE tending N/NE winds early arvo (then variable), easing Tue with early NE tending N/NW winds early arvo


A large increase in new S/SW groundswell with windy 6ft+ sets across the South West yesterday, cleaner around Mandurah and around 2ft, with infrequent 1-2ft waves across Perth. Winds stayed favourable for selected breaks into the afternoon, while today the swell has backed off in size with windy, improving 3-4ft waves in the South West, tiny to the north.

Windy, smaller today

This weekend and next week (Jan 16 - 22)

Winds will continue to blow offshore into the weekend, fresh and gusty from the E/SE tending E tomorrow, holding all day in Perth and Mandurah (shifting strong S/SE across the South West) but we'll see the surf easing further in size.

Margs looks to drop to 2ft to occasionally 3ft, flat to the north. A small, reinforcing background swell looks to maintain 3ft sets across the South West magnets Sunday with strong E tending E/NE winds, giving into afternoon sea breezes.

An inconsistent, mid-period SW swell is due early next week, building Monday and easing Tuesday, though the source was a distant and not overly strong polar low positioned west of Heard Island early-mid this week.

The swell will build Monday and should reach the 4ft range across the South West into the late afternoon/evening, easing from a similar size Tuesday with tiny waves to the north.

Gusty E/NE morning winds will shift more N/NE early Monday afternoon and then variable, so there should be some fun options into the afternoon. Get in early Tuesday morning as a moderate NE'ly will shift N/NW early afternoon and SW into the afternoon.

It's probably worth making the most of this small swell as there's nothing significant due into the end of the week and winds look to strengthen from the S/SE on Thursday, persisting Friday.

We may see some new S/SW groundswell spreading off a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales, arriving for next weekend but a developing mid-latitude low looks to bring onshore winds from the S/SW-S. We also may see some new SW swell from the mid-latitude low, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!


pugh.duncan's picture
pugh.duncan's picture
pugh.duncan commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 3:09pm

Hey Craig,
The EC has a cyclone getting past NW Cape towards the end of next week. I know it's a long way off and likely to change but any thoughts possible scenarios?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 15 Jan 2021 at 3:34pm

Models are toying with cyclones across northern Australia but yeah too far out to be confident on any as of yet.