Craig

Lighter winds before more storm activity into the weekend

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th August)

Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow Margs and Mandurah, more so Friday morning

Recap

Poor conditions across all locations yesterday with a continuation of large and stormy surf with strong onshore winds.

Today conditions have improved across Mandurah and Perth but the swell has eased, average across the South West with the weaker, smaller swell and strong cross-onshore breeze.

This week and weekend (Aug 13 - 18)

The current swell is expected to continue to ease through tomorrow, but some new inconsistent W/SW groundswell pulses are on the cards for tomorrow and Friday. These have been generated by a not overly well structured though strong bursts of W/NW gales through our medium-range swell window.

Inconsistent 4-5ft+ sets are due across the South West, 1ft to maybe 2ft in Mandurah and tiny across Perth both days.

Winds should improve across all locations with a variable S/SE-SE breeze due across the South West, light E/NE further north ahead of weak afternoon sea breezes. Friday will be best early with E/NE breezes at dawn, quickly shifting NE and then N-N/NW into the afternoon.

This then brings an end to the run of lighter winds until mid-next week, with a strong mid-latitude low due to move in from the west and strengthen while pushing across us on the weekend.

As a result a strong and increasing N tending N/NW wind is expected through Saturday and then strong SW tending S/SW breezes on Sunday as the low pushes east.

There is still some divergence surrounding the swell producing possibilities of this low, with EC having a weaker trough, while GFS shows a much more significant system.

In any case the localised and sizey swell generated by the low is expected to peak Sunday with those strong onshore winds, while a secondary front projecting up on its tail will continue to bring poor and stormy conditions to the coast Monday.

This activity will slowly push east on Tuesday but it doesn't look like we'll see winds swing back offshore until Wednesday and with a small, weak and easing swell.

Longer term we may see a fun and clean W/SW groundswell for later in the week, but more on this Friday.

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 14 Aug 2020 at 10:10am

Great surf for the dawny..