Western Australia Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 25th October)

Best Days: Sat: smaller early, getting bigger into the afternoon as a very long period swell builds across the region. A'noon peak will coincide with the sea breeze but there'll be waves at sheltered spots and metro coasts. Sun: very large long period swell, great across the metro beaches with early offshores, and quite sizeable (again!) in Margs with light winds before lunch. Wed PM onwards: plenty of swell, though bumpy in Margs. Thurs and Sat looking to see windows of OK winds across metro beaches. 

Recap: Thursday’s very large swell (12-15ft exposed breaks around Margs) went largely to waste at exposed beaches thanks to an onshore airstream. Though, protected spots were much cleaner and provided really good surf through the day. Similar conditions were reported across metro beaches, with much smaller surf (3-4ft in Perth and 4-5ft in Mandurah). Size eased a little across metro beaches into this morning, with clean conditions under a light offshore breeze. Wave heights eased more significantly across the Margaret River region (about 8ft+ exposed spots) and winds eased back through remained SW. 

This weekend (Oct 26 - 27)

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The leading edge of an incredible long period swell is due to reach the WA coast early Saturday morning. Peak swell periods could be as high as 23-24+ seconds, but the bulk of the swell will be located quite some time behind - likely to peak on Sunday.

Nevertheless, we’ll see an upwards trend during the day, more prominently into the afternoon, and by Sunday we should be seeing solid 10-12ft+ sets across exposed spots around Margaret River. Perth beaches should peak around 3-4ft+ and it’ll be larger near 4-5ft+ across the Mandurah coast. Though, set waves will be extremely inconsistent owing to the large travel times. 

Very large swell periods will also exaggerate wave heights at offshore bombies (down south) where we’ll see some really big surf early Sunday morning.

Conditions look generally very good both mornings with light cross-offshore winds out of the SE on Saturday. A weak ridge off the metro coast this evening will maintain moderate southerlies and this may ruffle surface conditions into the start of the weekend but we’ll see an improvement as Saturday morning wears on. Though, afternoon sea breezes will blow out exposed spots, so Sunday morning will offer the best waves with light offshore winds and a peak in swell (afternoon sea breezes are again likely). 

The coastal ridge will have less of an effect across the lower SW so the Margs region should see clean conditions both mornings ahead of the sea breeze.

Next week (Oct 28 onwards)

A moderate front is expected to clip the coast on Monday, freshening SW winds across most coasts. There's a chance for a period of lighter, more variable winds early morning but this will probably be confined to metro coasts. 

Sunday’s large long period swell will be steadily easing but exposed locations down south should still be pushing 8-10ft early, easing to 6-8ft into the afternoon. Metro beaches should maintain 3ft+ waves in Perth early Monday and 3-4ft+ in Mandurah ahead of the easing trend. 

Easing size will continue into Tuesday with lighter E’ly winds and sea breezes around Margs, and moderate S/SE breeze across metro coasts ahead of the sea breeze in all areas.

However, the rest of the outlook looks really interesting with a slow moving, amplifying node of the long wave trough expected to generate back-to-back fronts between Heard Island and the mainland for quite a few days, delivering another extended round of strong groundswell for the state. 

These swell each won’t be quite as big as any of our previous events, but current indications are that we’ll see building size through Wednesday (probably the afternoon) and Thursday, peaking Friday, before easing slowly Saturday. The first swell (due late Wednesday) will probably provide a strong initial kick in size (8-10ft Margs) before temporarily easing into Thursday morning, but then rebuilding into the afternoon and Friday as secondary swells start to filter into the coast. 

It also looks like the associated fronts will track pretty close to the coast too, so conditions won’t be great and you’ll need to look for some shelter. But with sets holding 8-10ft across the Margs region, there’ll be no shortage of options.

The good news is that this frontal progression will have a much less effect (wind wise) on locations north from Bunbury, so although we’ll probably see one day of onshores here - and sea breezes most afternoons - there’s a healthy opportunity for a couple of days of fun waves across metro beaches later next week.

Have a great weekend!