XL swell peaking late Tuesday, zero quality

Guy Dixon picture
Guy Dixon (Guy Dixon)

West Australian Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 23rd May)

Best Days: Sunday


Wild, stormy conditions lashed the southwestern WA over the weekend, with a powerful front moving locally and a strong southwesterly groundswell to match on Saturday. Stormy sets grew to the 12-15ft range late in the day, holding on Sunday morning before easing to the 8ft range today.

Winds gusted over 90km/h on Saturday, remaining strong on Sunday, before strengthening to near gale force from the north this afternoon.

This week (Tuesday 24th - Friday 27th):

Yet another strong frontal progression has been pushing up through the southwestern swell window, moving in a captured motion from just southeast of Heard Island. This fetch is looking more consolidated than in the past model runs and is likely to push right into the coast of the South West.

We are in for another XL swell event, with sets building to the 10-12ft range on Tuesday, with another couple of feet of windswell on top as potentially damaging winds move locally - northwesterly before dawn, swinging southwesterly (another severe weather warning is in place for gusts over 125km/h). Perth and Mandurah should build to around 4ft, with quality severely lacking.

Continued southwesterly trailing fetches in the wake of this system will maintain plenty of size, with sets gradually easing from the 10ft range on Wednesday, fading from the 6-8ft range on Thursday.

The metro beaches should ease from the 3ft range on Wednesday, back to around 2ft by Thursday.

Breezes will remain onshore, with moderate/fresh west/southwesterly winds tending west/northwesterly on Wednesday, becoming fresh southwesterly on Thursday.

Friday looks to be a low point, with sets in the 4-5ft range across the South West and around 1-2ft in Perth. Metro beaches can look forward to early offshores, tending northerly, while the South West won’t be so lucky, with a northwesterly breeze from the get go.

This weekend (Saturday 28th - Sunday 29th):

A strong mid latitude low looks to migrate eastward with a fairly zonal trajectory over the Indian Ocean, steering post-frontal core winds upwards of 50kts mid-week, easing as it nears Australia.

This should provide the next most significant swell front for WA, with a west/southwesterly groundswell building to around 8ft on Saturday afternoon, slowly easing for a similar size range on Sunday, more in the 3ft range for Perth and Mandurah.

Yet another front looks to move locally on Saturday hindering wave quality, but breezes should finally go light variable on Sunday leading to clean conditions


quokka's picture
quokka's picture
quokka Tuesday, 24 May 2016 at 12:45am

We haven't had a start to the season like this for a while. Keep the NW'ers coming to chew the banks and maybe Perth will get some waves...then again maybe not.