West Australian Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Friday 4th September)

Best Days: Sunday, Monday, Tuesday

Recap: 

Conditions were super clean right along the coast on Thursday under a light easterly component breeze which persisted throughout the day. Across the South West, the surf build from a weak and inconsistent 2-3ft in the morning to around 4-5ft by the afternoon with a few sets in the 6ft range sneaking through occasionally. Perth and Mandurah lacked in the size department with only weak 1ft peelers on offer. All in all it was a really good looking afternoon, particularly for the South West were there was a bit of size to work with late..

Clean conditions in the 3-5ft range continued this morning, but soon deteriorated as a fresh northerly breeze picked up. The surf has been transformed into a turbulent and uninviting mess, with very few options for a wave.

As for Perth and Mandurah, there still isn’t much size to work with 1-1.5ft at Mandurah, more in the 1ft range for Perth. To make matters worse, northwesterly breezes are have created a fair amount of bump and chop making it pretty hard to get excited.

This weekend (Saturday 5th - Sunday 6th):

Not much has changed from the previous forecast with most of Saturday morning and early afternoon still looking to be a write off right along the coast with fresh southwesterly winds in the morning, gradually easing in the afternoon. If this is your only opportunity to get wet this weekend, wait until late in the day where the winds will be the lightest and most southerly. You might be able to find a semi-decent wave at the protected spots. 

The South West should be starting to see a few long period forerunners preceding Sunday’s large pulse in the 6-8ft range during the late afternoon. Perth and Mandurah will be offering peaky 2-3ft surf with generally average quality.

The system responsible for Sunday’s large pulse is not looking as good as it did on Wednesday. Forecast models indicate that the fetch of core 55-60kt winds has pinched and become elongated. We observed 55kt winds over the Heard Island region yesterday, not really reaching the 60kt potential that the models were indicating earlier in the week.

We are still on track for solid 12ft+ surf (maybe the odd 15ft set) along the coast of the South West (probably peaking overnight, more conservatively thinking 10-12 during day light hours), but the periods for the offshore bombies are now looking to be lacking. Perth and Mandurah can still look forward to surf in the 3-4ft range.

Winds for the South West look to be very light onshore all day, swinging from west/southwest to west/northwest in the afternoon. Perth and Mandurah are likely to be under a light east/northeasterly breeze in the morning, tending light/calm/variable late in the day.

We just need to hope that the winds abate early enough the previous day to allow for the scarring and short wave energy to dissipate enough.

Sunday is well worth keeping an eye on right along the coast.

Next week (Monday 7th onward):

The surf will ease early next week, however a local southwesterly fetch will work on an active sea-state to slow this easing trend. Monday is likely to ease back to around the 8ft mark, slightly less than what we were thinking in Wednesday’s forecast (the whole event has been scaled back a touch). Perth and Mandurah will dial back to around 2-3ft.

Winds will be light early right across the coast. Calm-light northerly winds will be on the cards first thing for the South West (possibly east/northeasterly which is pretty common under this set up), tending northerly late in the afternoon. Perth and Mandurah are looking good, with light easterly breezes for much of the day, possibly light onshore late in the afternoon.

Tuesday will see a pulse generated by a northwesterly prefrontal fetch, maintaining surf in the 5-6ft range across the South West. Metro beaches will should to around 1-2ft.

The South West looks good early, under light east/northeast breezes before tending northerly and increasing in the afternoon causing conditions to deteriorate. Metro beaches are likely to suffer a similar fate, clean in the morning, becoming bumpy later.

Wednesday will be a fairly dormant day, with the surf fading further across all coasts, back to around 4-6ft for the South West and 1ft for Perth and Mandurah under moderate/fresh northerly breezes tending northwesterly in the afternoon. Give this one a miss.

The next best prospects of a fresh swell comes on Thursday, albeit modest. The surf should build to around 6ft, but will be heavily impacted by gusty onshore winds. 

Make the most of Sunday (if you’re up to it) and early next week.