Good to great run of surf before onshores winds kick in

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday April 10th)

Best Days: This morning Surf Coast, tomorrow, Friday Surf Coast, Saturday morning Surf Coast, Sunday, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Large S/SW groundswell tomorrow AM, easing
  • Moderate S winds tomorrow, tending light into the PM (likely light W/NW-W/SW on the Surf Coast in the AM)
  • Easing swell Fri AM, with a moderate + sized reinforcing S/SW swell for the PM, easing Sat
  • Moderate W/NW winds Fri AM, tending S/SW-SW into the PM
  • Similar winds Sat, fresher into the PM
  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell for later Sat, peaking Sun AM then easing slowly, further Mon
  • NW tending variable winds Sun
  • Local offshore winds Mon AM, tending S/SW into the PM on the Surf Coast
  • Mod-large mid-period SW swell building Tue, peaking in the PM but with fresh S winds
  • Swell easing Wed with persistent S winds


A moderate sized increase in mid-period swell was seen through yesterday but with poor conditions as the swell generating front clipped the state.

Today we've got cleaner conditions and a drop in size though still a good 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets with larger, messier waves to the east. Winds will shift strong SW around midday so surf before then.

This week through next week (Apr 11 - 19)

Looking at the coming week and a half, and a strong node of the Long Wave Trough sitting just east of our region will steer and strengthen polar storms up through our south-western swell window.

The first and at this stage, most significant of these formed yesterday, with it being a polar low. A great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds were generated through our southern swell window, with a large, long-period S/SW groundswell generated for tomorrow morning.

The Surf Coast should come in at 6-8ft tomorrow morning with 8ft surf to the east, easing through the day, smaller Friday morning and back to 4ft+ west of Melbourne.

Our reinforcing pulse of mid-period S/SW swell for Friday afternoon is on track, with a great fetch of W/SW gales being generated on the backside of the polar low, south-southwest of Tasmania, even more acutely in our southern swell window.

This will result in a lesser difference in size between west/east of Melbourne, and we can expected the Surf Coast to pulse back to 4-5ft later, with 4-6ft sets to the east, easing Saturday from 3-4ft and 4ft+ respectively.

Looking at the local winds and tomorrow looks a touch dicey but doable with moderate but easing S'ly winds that will remain light into the afternoon. The Surf Coast should see winds tend light W/NW-W/SW through the morning though don't expect perfectly clean conditions. The strength of the swell should help overpower any slight lump.

Friday should see a more reliable W/NW breeze on the Surf Coast through the morning, shifting SW-S/SW through the late morning and without much strength, similar Saturday but a little fresher onshore during the day.

The next pulse of swell looks mid-period, arriving later Saturday but peaking Sunday morning.

This will be generated by patchy fetches of strong to gale-force winds moving along the polar shelf over the coming days, with it coming in at 4ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east, easing through the day.

Conditions looks great for this swell though with a NW offshore likely to tend variable into the afternoon with improving conditions to the east.

The swell will become smaller into Monday and with light, local offshore winds, holding most of the day to the east if we're lucky and tending S/SW to the west with a trough.

We then look to our next pulse of sizey SW swell, with a strong, broad polar low due to fire up under the country on the weekend.

This will generate a great fetch of W/SW gales while slowly moving east, with a moderate to large sized mid-period SW swell due to fill in Tuesday, peaking later.

The Surf Coast should build to 4-6ft with 6-8ft sets to the east though with S'ly winds in the wake of Monday evening's shallow change. These winds look to persist Wednesday thanks to a trough lingering on our region to the east, as high pressure sits west of us.

So with this in mind make the most of the coming run of swell through until Monday.


Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Wednesday, 10 Apr 2024 at 10:32am

That's the longest you've gone without writing 'but winds' in living memory!

Thanks Craigos!

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Wednesday, 10 Apr 2024 at 10:39am

Up the Craigos!

Spinks's picture
Spinks's picture
Spinks Thursday, 11 Apr 2024 at 7:50pm

Thanks tubbabird

Cowboy's picture
Cowboy's picture
Cowboy Thursday, 11 Apr 2024 at 11:55am

thank you for the waves Craigos!