Poor surf continues

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday December 25th)

Best Days: Saturday morning keen surfers Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized, stromy SE windswell today and tomorrow, easing into the middle of the week
  • Inconsistent SW groundswell also in the mix tomorrow AM
  • Strong SE winds tomorrow, possibly a touch weaker E/SE for a period in the AM, mod-fresh S/SE tending S Wed
  • Gusty S/SW-SW winds on Thu with smaller surf
  • Lighter S winds Fri AM with small surf
  • Weak mid-period SW swell building Fri, easing Sat
  • Early W winds Sat, tending strong S/SW during the day
  • Moderate sized + SW swell Sun with light-moderate SE winds


Merry Christmas!

There were workable waves across locations to the east on Saturday morning with a window of light east winds and new SW swell.

Yesterday was a little smaller and not great but doable again for the keen to the east of Melbourne.

Today is poor, windy and onshore with nowhere to recommend under strong E/SE-SE winds along with a localised, building windswell.

This week and weekend (Dec 26 - 31)

The current synoptic setup responsible for the poor winds and stormy swell is a deep, inland low, squeezing against a strong high to our west, just south of the Bight.

This interaction will continue over the coming days but in a weakened form as the low starts to break down and the high pushes east ahead of weak front moving in Thursday.

This will see winds remaining strong from the SE tomorrow, tending E/SE for a period to the east in the morning along with a poor mix of chunky SE windswell and easing SW groundswell.

Wednesday should see winds relax but there’ll still be moderate to fresh from the S/SE in the morning, swinging S’ly through the afternoon and then S/SW later as the front approaches.

Unfortunately there doesn’t look to be any window of offshores now before winds swing back to the S/SW-SW on Thursday. Friday may see weaker S’ly breezes but with small surf, only building into the afternoon and weak, generated by the front moving through Thursday.

So all in all the whole week looks to be a write-off unfortunately.

Into the weekend we’re looking at moderate sized + mid-period S/SW swell, generated by a strong and sustained polar frontal progression projecting up and towards Tasmania later week.

This should generate a decent sized swell for Sunday, coming in at 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east but with developing strong SW-S/SW winds on Saturday, weaker SE on Sunday as it peaks.

There’s a chance for early W’ly winds on the Surf Coast Friday morning but with weaker surf to 2-3ft. We’ll review this Wednesday.

A secondary pulse of possibly stronger S/SW groundswell is on the cards for early next week as winds shift more easterly, but more on this Wednesday. Have a great Christmas!


Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Monday, 25 Dec 2023 at 10:00am

I wasn't expecting a forecast today Craig, thanks. All the best for Xmas and New Year to you and the Swellnet team. At least there is the hope for a couple of clean very small sessions down the GOR if the wind goes SW. Thats my glass half full take on the forecast.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 25 Dec 2023 at 10:45am

Merry Christmas all!

edd_finn's picture
edd_finn's picture
edd_finn Monday, 25 Dec 2023 at 11:18am

Christmas Day forecast! Thanks Craig. Happy Christmas.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 25 Dec 2023 at 11:47am

Merry Christmas lads.

Big Kahuna.'s picture
Big Kahuna.'s picture
Big Kahuna. Monday, 25 Dec 2023 at 8:08pm

Merry Xmas all. Great work Craig. Share the froth

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Tuesday, 26 Dec 2023 at 8:50am

Merry Xmas and a happy new year. Roll on Mid Feb. I say .

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers Tuesday, 26 Dec 2023 at 6:34pm

Merry Christmas Craig and everyone else. Unfortunately a seriously grim forecast.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 27 Dec 2023 at 5:40am

Thanks Blackers. This morning looks enticing with those winds backing off and how grim it's been.