South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of SE swell Sat, easing Sun with SE winds, lighter on the MNC
• SE-E/SE swell holds at fun levels Mon-Wed with onshore winds Mon, more favourable from Tues onwards
• Likely increase in wave quality Wed PM, with an increase in size through Thurs into Fri under light S’ly winds (SW AM, S-SE PM)
• Another round of tradeswell likely from next weekend

Recap

Chunky, short range S swells built from 3-4ft to 4-6ft across NENSW yesterday with no really quality and early SW winds freshening form the S during the day. SEQLD S facing beaches reached 3-4ft with much smaller surf elsewhere. Today has seen swells ease in NENSW with 3-4ft of surf, albeit with better quality SE swell in the mix, grading smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Early light W-SW breezes have now tended S’ly and freshened, though less than yesterday.

Couple of small, fun ones at Burleigh

This weekend (May3-4)

No great change to the weekend outlook. A dominant (1034hPa) high pressure system is currently moving off the Far South Coast into the Tasman Sea where it very slowly migrates south-eastwards over the weekend. Pressure gradients weaken over temperate NSW while a firm ridge in the sub-tropics holds a S-SE pattern over the weekend.

Morning winds tomorrow should hold a W-SW pattern, offshore for most places apart from direct S facing beaches, tending to mod S/SE breezes, with winds shifting SE later in the day. 

 Surf-wise active fetches related to a lingering low pressure system near New Zealand look to send mid period SE swell through Sat which should offer 3-5ft surf in NENSW, grading smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD with semi-protected Points in the 2-3ft range with an occ. bigger set. Just a touch of wind protection might be required to get best results. 

Tasman Sea sources ease Sun so we may see a temporary easing before more local SE-E/SE swell fills in as a broad local fetch of 20kt winds establishes in the lower Coral Sea. Residual swell trains from an active sea state should still hold 2-3ft surf through the morning and we may see a small increase in the a’noon, offset by winds shifting more SE/E/SE, E’ly in NENSW. There should rideable options Sun, favouring the Points, although a morning land breeze flow (W-SW) still looks likely in NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast. 

Next week (May 5 onwards)

By Mon the large high will be drifting towards New Zealand with broad fetch of E/SE-SE tradewinds in the South Pacific slot, extending into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. That set-up favours the sub-tropics for plenty of workable tradeswell with a smaller signal off the top of the high extending into temperate regions.

Winds look a bit second hand for Mon as the high straightens out and directs a more onshore E/SE flow across the coast. We should see short range E/SE swell in the 3ft range through Mon. 

An improvement in winds is expected from Tues as a trough areas and small high cell moves over the NE of the state, bringing a more S-S/SE flow with morning offshores. We should see similar winds for Wed- morning offshore and light/mod S-SE winds. Perfect for the beachies early, then the Points. 

E/SE swell from the trade fetch will hold a signal in the 2-3ft range with tidally mediated ups and downs. Nothing amazing but fun waves every day. 

A little more action for the second half of next week.

An E’ly dip which may progress into a broad trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea well SW of New Caledonia drags the trade fetch southwards and strengthens the fetch. We should see an improvement in swell quality Wed with some 3ft+ sets in the a’noon as longer period swell trains start to fill before a further increase through Thurs and peaking Fri. 

Still some model divergence and with a long lead time we’ll expect revisions in size and timing but at this stage we should see surf build into the 3-4ft range Thurs (few bigger sets), peaking 3-5ft on Fri.

A new trade flow then builds in the Coral Sea off the dominant high, initially favouring the sub-tropics with a rebuild in SE swell to tradeswell from next weekend.

There is some indication we may see low pressure develop in the Coral Sea or South Pacific and tracks southwards long term.

We may also see a better aligned frontal system through the lower Tasman next weekend, with a potential S swell dividend.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!