Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun blend of SE-E/SE swell’s Sat with light morning winds and mod SE breezes developing
• Smaller on Sun with light offshore winds AM, a’noon NE breezes
• Small E’ly swells to start next week, with light morning winds and a’noon NE breezes
• Better quality and size from the E-E/NE building in Thurs, peaking Fri with S’ly winds
• Mix of E and S swells likely medium term

Recap

Plenty of chunky S-S/SE swell to 4-5ft (6ft on the Hunter) yesterday with a brief period of cleaner conditions under W/SW winds before S’lies kicked in and blew out open beaches. Still a chunky blend of S/SE-SE swells in the water today to 3-5ft with morning W/SW-SW winds cleaning up some of the lump and bump before S-SE winds kick in, albeit with a moderating trend expected through the a’noon. 

Clean at sheltered spots with swells still getting in

This weekend (May3-4)

No great change to the weekend outlook. A dominant (1034hPa) high pressure system is currently moving off the Far South Coast into the Tasman Sea where it very slowly migrates south-eastwards over the weekend. Pressure gradients weaken over temperate NSW with a firm ridge in the sub-tropics holding a S-SE pattern over the weekend.

We’ll still see a SE flow across the Hunter-Illawarra tomorrow but with a moderating trend a nice window of morning land breezes before it kicks in. Expect a bit of residual lump and bump across exposed S facing stretches but conditions should be generally clean and workable across the region. Surf-wise active fetches related to a lingering low pressure system near New Zealand look to send more quality mid period SE swell through Sat which should offer 3-4ft surf with the occ. bigger set. Just a touch of wind protection might be required to get best results. 

Size eases into Sun as Tasman sources wane. Still some 2-3ft surf through the morning dropping back through the day. Zonal fetches well below the continent send some traces of long period S swell wrap which may offer some 3ft sets at the better S swell magnets through the morning. Conditions should be primo with morning offshore breezes lingering well into late morning before light E’ly to NE’ly seabreezes in the a’noon.

Next week (May 5 onwards)

By Mon the large high will be drifting towards New Zealand with broad fetch of E/SE-SE tradewinds in the South Pacific slot, extending into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. That set-up favours the sub-tropics for plenty of workable tradeswell with a smaller signal off the top of the high extending into temperate regions.

We’ll pencil in clean but small surf for Mon, in the 2ft range with morning offshores and a’noon N-NE breezes. 

Very similar but a notch smaller into Tues and Wed. 

A little more action for the second half of next week.

A trough in advance of a new high pressure cell moving in from the Bight brings a S’ly change Thurs.

An E’ly dip which may progress into a broad trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea well SW of New Caledonia drags the trade fetch southwards and aims it up more directly at southern regions (see below). That should see a nice increase in size from the E-E/NE through Thurs and peaking Fri.

Still some model divergence and with a long lead time we’ll expect revisions in size and timing but at this stage we should see surf build into the 3ft range Thurs, peaking 3-5ft on Fri.

A new trade flow then builds in the Coral Sea off the dominant high, initially favouring the sub-tropics.

There is some indication we may see low pressure develop in the Coral Sea or South Pacific and tracks southwards long term.

We may also see a better aligned frontal system through the lower Tasman next weekend, with a potential S swell dividend.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!