Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 23rd August)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Friday morning, Monday on the beaches, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large, powerful W/SW groundswell front arriving this afternoon with light W/NW-NW winds, peaking into the evening, easing steadily tomorrow from the SW
• N/NW winds tomorrow (N through the AM and early PM to the east)
• N/NW-NW winds Fri ahead of a mid-PM S/SW-S change
• Moderate sized SW groundswell building later, larger and peaking Sat AM
• Moderate S/SE-SE winds Sat AM, freshening into the PM
• Easing swell Sun with strong S/SE-SE winds
• Easing mix of SW swell and SE windswell Mon with E/NE-NE winds
• New moderate sized SW groundswell Tue AM with N winds (locally offshore)

Recap

The surf was great yesterday morning across the Surf Coast with clean 3-4ft waves, but a strong onshore change moved in later morning, creating choppy conditions into the afternoon.

This morning we've got moderate levels of W/SW swell persisting with excellent conditions across the Surf Coast with sets to 4ft+, bigger to the east and best in protected spots.

A large, strong pulse of long-period W/SW groundswell from the 'bombing low' that fired under the country on Monday is due into the afternoon but this is discussed in more detail below.

This week and weekend (Aug 24 - 27)

On Monday I discussed the significant deepening low pressure system that formed to the south-west of Western Australia, pushing quickly east under the country on Monday,

This low dropped some 40hPa in central pressure within 24 hours, easily surpassing the requirements for it to be classified as a 'bombing low', and with such a rapid intensification we've seen a significant fetch of storm-force W/SW winds projected through our western swell window.

Satellite observations (left) of the low are impressive and with this we're now expected to see a large, strong swell front arriving through the afternoon, likely now reaching 8ft on the sets across the Surf Coast magnets by dark, 10ft to the east.

Winds are to due become light from the W/NW-NW creating excellent conditions.

With the earlier arrival of swell, we'll see it peaking overnight and easing steadily through tomorrow, thanks to the quite fast, east-southeast movement through our swell window.

This easing trend will be slowed a little by trailing W/SW gales behind the storm-force fetch, and this was more in our south-western swell window.

A shift in direction to the SW is then due through tomorrow with easing 5-6ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 8ft to the east along with all day N/NW winds on the Surf Coast and N winds to the east through the morning and early afternoon.

A very temporary low point in swell is due Friday morning, but new levels of W/SW swell are due into the afternoon thanks to a rapidly deepening frontal progression to our west-southwest on tomorrow.

Fetches of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds in our western swell window look to be followed by similar strength W/SW winds in our south-western swell window, producing a moderate to large sized W/SW tending SW swell for later Friday and more so Saturday.

The Surf Coast is unlikely to drop below 3ft with 4-5ft sets to the east, building back to 4ft and 6ft+ respectively into the mid-late afternoon.

Saturday looks to come in around 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east but the main issue is the local winds.

A trough is expected to bring a S/SW-S change mid-afternoon on Friday, with N/NW-NW winds ahead of it in the morning, while a high sliding in behind the trough will bring moderate S/SE-SE winds Saturday morning, freshening int the afternoon.

Sunday looks poor with strong E/SE-SE winds on the cards, kicking up some localised SE windswell on the Surf Coast as the SW groundswell eases.

The beaches are expected to improve on Monday as winds shift E/NE-NE along with a further drop in size from the weekend, 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east.

Tuesday looks fun as well with N'ly winds that look to tend locally offshore through the morning along with a new mid-period SW groundswell, generated by a burst of polar W/NW gales moving along the polar shelf to the east of the Heard Island region later in the week.

A good 3ft of swell is due on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east, easing through the day and smaller Wednesday morning.

Longer term there's nothing of note on the cards with troughy weather and weaker swells inbound for the start of spring. More on this Friday.