S’ly winds freshen through Thurs, tending SSE through the day as the low winds up and a large high moves towards Tasmania. Tasmania is right at the tail of the fetch (see below) but this should still be sufficient to whip up 2-3ft of S swell through the day.

Yet another inland trough forms an interior low mid-week, likely in Southern NSW, and this low is looking like a solid S-SSE swell producer as it moves offshore Wed/Thurs and becomes cradled by a strong high moving well south of the Bight. It’s not the type of pattern we would expect to see in late Sep, but with so much La Niña mediated troughiness in the Tasman, it’s just been a matter of time until something kicked off.

Yet another inland trough forms an interior low mid-week, likely in Southern NSW, and this low is looking like a solid S-SSE swell producer as it moves offshore Wed/Thurs and becomes cradled by a strong high moving well south of the Bight. It’s not the type of pattern we would expect to see in late Sep, but with so much La Niña mediated troughiness in the Tasman, it’s just been a matter of time until something kicked off.

Models are now starting to firm on quite a significant swell producing system as the low moves offshore and a strong high moving well south of the Bight offers a supporting pressure gradient squeeze on the Western flank of the low.