Poor, windy outlook

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 30th March)

Best Days: No good days

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate to large SW groundswell filling in tomorrow with strong S/SE winds (SE east of Melbourne in the AM)
  • Easing mix of SW and S/SW swells Fri with strong SE winds
  • Moderate sized SE windswell tomorrow and Fri, easing slowly on the weekend
  • Gusty SE winds Sat and moderate S/SE tending S winds Sun with small to tiny levels of swell
  • Light W/NW tending SW winds Mon with small to tiny levels of swell

Recap

Small leftovers the last two days with bumpy conditions across all regions (cleaner across Phillip Island yesterday morning), and similar today. The exposed beaches have been workable for the keen.

This week and weekend (Mar 31 – Apr 3)

Wind. And strong at that.

That's what we're looking at for the coming days across the Victorian region as a strong high pressure system muscles in from the west, squeezing up against a strong low forming in the Tasman Sea.

This will direct a strong south-east pressure gradient across the state which won't release its grip until Sunday/Monday and by then all the swell will be gone.

Tomorrow will be poor with strong S/SE winds on the Surf Coast and a period of strong SE winds in the morning to the east along with our moderate-large SW groundswell.

This swell has been and is still being generated by an initially strong but now weaker, slow moving polar low moving east along the polar shelf.

A peak in size is likely through the afternoon across all locations with building sets to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets (possibly rare bigger one) and 6ft to occasionally 8ft to the east.

The swell will start to ease through Friday though with strong to gale-force SW winds still being generated in our southern swell window this morning, it'll be a slower easing trend on the Surf Coast but strong SE winds will continue to create poor conditions.

Saturday looks no better with gusty SE winds and a further drop in size with nowhere to recommend. All these SE winds will kick up moderate levels of SE windswell tomorrow and Friday, easing slowly through the weekend.

Come Sunday the pressure gradient between the high and low will weaken with weaker but still moderate S/SE winds due to persist across most locations with no decent size or power left. The Mornington Peninsula looks to be 2ft max, but more so 1-2ft, with a low quality windswell to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast.

The now, weaker low is actually due to swing back into the Gippsland coast Sunday, with Monday seeing W/NW tending SW winds but with no new swell.

Troughy weather looks to persist into Tuesday with variable tending S/SE winds ahead of a return to winds from the eastern quadrant into the end of the week.

Swell wise there's nothing major on the cards with small, background levels of W/SW swell due Wednesday from a weak mid-latitude low approaching Western Australia on the weekend. This may be followed by further small pulses Thursday and Friday but not above 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east. More on this in the coming updates.

Comments

Ed Sloane's picture
Ed Sloane's picture
Ed Sloane Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 10:12am

Wow

JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 10:18am

It’s Autumn and the forecast is “no good days”. This has just become laughable.

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 10:57am

at least we got the last few days, wed thru to mon, started to get the paddle fitness back, guess it goes backwards again

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 12:07pm

Not me, a runny nose put me in iso for 7 days :(

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 11:01am

FML

Age's picture
Age's picture
Age Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 11:23am

Is this the worst run in living memory?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 12:08pm

Without a shadow of a doubt for me (nearly 10 years on the MP)

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 12:22pm

Yeah it’s gotta be

natjon651's picture
natjon651's picture
natjon651 Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 1:18pm

Spoke to a long term (40yrs plus of surfing) local of the SC and he states this is easily the worst 2 years in that time, and the last 6 months the icing on the cake. What i find interesting is that all these new surfers since COVID have never experienced a proper SW groundswell on the SC. Will be an interesting sight to behold when or if the reefs ever fire again and long hold downs become the norm!

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 2:03pm

Considering we're in the midst of a La Nina event for 2 years running, and knowing what that does to our surf conditions, it's obviously very believable to hear that. Can't recall from Craig's previous articles on it, but not sure how many La Nina's the SC/Australia has had in last 40 years.

But as per comment above, start of April and and the report says 'No good days'. That is so fucked up.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 2:53pm

Ahhhh come on!

it's been a bad period, but there's definitely been solid SW groundswells mixed in since March 2020 :)

This summer has been the knockout punch though, the last two years have just been uncomfortable jabs to the stomach (surf wise).

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 2:28pm

This is the worst Autumn for surf conditions on the M.P. and W.P. I can recall. Autumn is meant to be Surfing time with summer crowds gone, good swell and favourable winds on tap.
:-(
.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 2:56pm

Yep, all day offshores, glassy evenings, warm water and solid swells.
My favourite time of year here for sure.
Bit different at the moment,

frankson beans's picture
frankson beans's picture
frankson beans Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 5:07pm

Cmon folks a recalibration of expectation is all that is required - as someone once said “there’s no such thing as a bad surf”. The sun is out the water is warm and clean (as compared to our northern states). Good waves will return and in the meantime stay positive and get out there!!

Thanos S's picture
Thanos S's picture
Thanos S Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 5:28pm

I cherry picked some fun sunny days both sides of Melbourne in March. But looks like me and the snakes will playing mahjong for a bit, taking tea, watching , thinking , how can i get in, get the gas.

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 6:14pm

We all know that every time we order a new board the surf is shit. Too many new boards been ordered over the last 2 years. No more surf for you.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 9:12pm

Maybe if one orders a groveler, or a single fin slider made for 1-2ft, the surf will then pump?

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Wednesday, 30 Mar 2022 at 7:43pm

I have put off getting another board. I already have all the gear and no idea!