Another mix of west swells, under model forecasts

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 28th July)

Best Days: This afternoon Surf Coast, tomorrow Surf Coast, Friday, Saturday morning beaches to the east, Sunday Surf Coast (possibly beaches late afternoon), Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Building mid-period W swell later today with winds shifting W/NW
  • Moderate-large mix of mid-period W/SW swell and W/SW groundswell (for the afternoon) tomorrow with gusty W/NW winds, easing and tending NW into the PM
  • Easing W/SW swells Fri with strong N winds
  • Low point in W/SW swell Sat with strong N winds, easing and tending NW into the PM
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell Sun with W/NW tending variable winds
  • Easing mid-period W/SW swell Mon with moderate N winds

Recap

Good waves across most locations yesterday with Monday morning's swell easing back further in size from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula with N/NW tending N winds.

Today winds are stronger out of the N'th favouring selected spots, with an inconsistent, reinforcing W/SW groundswell maintaining 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft waves to the east. We should see some new, mid-period W swell building later today, discussed below.

This week and next week (Jul 29 – Aug 1)

With us falling in between frontal systems since the weekend, the swell has slowly tailed away in size and consistency, but today's strong winds are due to the next mid-latitude frontal progression moving in from the west.

As touched on in Monday's update, this frontal system is a touch better than the weekend's though again, most of the swell generating fetch is being aimed into South Australia. Also the models are over-forecasting the size for most locations.

Initially, we saw this front firing up to the south-west of Western Australia yesterday, generating a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds, just within our swell window, then pushing up into the Bight while slowly weakening, north of our swell window.

The front is now dipping south-east down across us, and we'll see gale-force W'ly winds generated through our western swell window today, kicking up a late increase in mid-period W'ly swell as winds shift W/NW. Try the Surf Coast late.

The bulk of the swell is due tomorrow morning, but it'll be mid-period and west in nature, with some less consistent, stronger W/SW groundswell for afternoon.

Size wise, both should be about the same with 3-5ft surf due on the Surf Coast (those larger sets on the swell magnets), 6-8ft to the east along with gusty W/NW winds, easing and tending NW mid-late afternoon.

We'll see the swell easing through Friday under strong and tricky N'ly winds, dropping from 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 6ft or so to the east on the sets.

Saturday will become smaller again as we fall in between swells and wind remain strong from the N'th, shifting NW through the afternoon and easing. The Surf Coast looks to hang in around an inconsistent 2-3ft, with 3-5ft sets to the east.

On Sunday, an inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due to fill in, generated by a distant polar storm firing up around the Heard Island region today. A fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds will fall in our long-range swell window, before pushing north of it and into Western Australia.

As a result the swell will be very inconsistent and not as big as the models are forecasting, with then incorrectly combining mid-period energy with the long-period swell.

What's likely is inconsistent 3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft+ to the east under W/NW tending variable winds.

Monday should be similar in size as the tail end of the progression, under Western Australia generates some reinforcing mid-period W/SW swell and winds look more favourable for the beaches, N'ly and moderate in strength. We'll have a closer look at this Friday.

Following this we're looking at weaker storms moving through our swell windows and smaller swells, but check back Friday for the latest.

Comments

hazzamann's picture
hazzamann's picture
hazzamann Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 10:53am

Looking good bro, can’t wait to come down and surf winkipop yew

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 2:05pm

Got about 100 of us 3182 Pier bras heading down tomorrow! Couple of super excited kooks who've had a sesh at the Tub getting amongst it with us but all welcome at Bells I hear!

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 6:58am

All wearing pink Speedos and swimmers cap's

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 5:21pm

fly my pretties

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 3:34pm

Geezus Craig when is that wind going to calm down. It was blowing a gale yesterday and hasn't stopped for two weeks. Good surf if you can handle the [email protected]#$*G wind.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 3:52pm

All from a strong dip in the SAM.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 4:08pm

Sorry Craig what is the SAM?

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 4:13pm

Got it the Southern Annular mode which lasts two weeks and sometimes longer and has moved into a negative phase which pushes the stronger westerlies whipping around the southern ocean all year further north. Hence F#*^%^G wind.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 5:58pm

Nailed it ha.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 4:41pm

No complaints about the wind. Been good to sometimes excellent waves around here since this lock down started. Groundhog day for the best part of 2 weeks and it's good to have proper wetty rash around the armpits again........sort of.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 5:25pm

I Agree ringy. Been a great run. As long as the winds in the right direction. Couple extra paddles..
bit annoying for sleeping though..

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 5:39pm

Good for snow cover at the ski resorts too. Not too many bluebird days though!!

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Wednesday, 28 Jul 2021 at 10:20pm

3ft.....3ft....3ft.....

How about some 5ft.....6ft.....8ft, Huey?

tommy southcoast's picture
tommy southcoast's picture
tommy southcoast Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 7:38pm

Didn't want to sound ungrateful but been thinking the same thing! I'd be wrapped with some consistent solid 4-6ft days. But I'll take what I'm given

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 9:45am

Steps taken to mitigate erosion down GOR
https://imgur.com/gallery/5DNabWU

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 10:09am

Haha they can start by removing the car parks and beach accesses that the council's have cut into the sand dunes every 500 m a long the GOR

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 10:27am

Blame the Gt Ocean Rd Coast & Parks Authority (formally GORCC) for all the access tracks/paths to the beach etc.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 2:52pm

Pooman, are you suggesting that the carparks/access points should be removed?

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 5:07pm

Yep why develope the coast in regional Victoria now that there are no tourist for the foreseeable future. Rip up 90% of them and revegetate the area. Great Ocean road coast committee use to be good at quickly getting approval for projects like that and they have a good conservation team for it

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 11:51am

Hows dem crowds ringlord. You’ll see I’ve keep my end of the agreement.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 12:57pm

Bone, I'll come and watch you paddle out at Tiber today.
Recon the crowd at Pinesuwatu could be giving the surf coast a run for its money.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 29 Jul 2021 at 1:32pm

Kans at koons or joints at jubes. Cant decide