Craig

We're fully into the swing of things

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 16th April)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday morning, Thursday/Friday protected spots

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing S/SW swell tomorrow with morning W/NW winds, workable into the afternoon
  • Good SW groundswell for Sun and Mon, easing Tue
  • W/NW morning winds Sun AM, fresh NW winds Mon, strong N/NW Tue am ahead of a strong SW change
  • Significant swell for later next week from 'bombing' low

Recap

Our stronger W/SW groundswell for yesterday filled in nicely across the Surf Coast with 4-5ft+ sets on the magnets through the day (a touch slow at times) with generally favourable winds, larger to the east and best in protected spots.

Today we've got our reinforcing SW and S/SW groundswell pulses filling in but with less favourable winds and conditions. Protected spots are the pick and we should see the Surf Coast peaking at 5-6ft with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend and next week (Apr 17 - 23)

Today's large mix of swells, generated by a polar front projecting up behind the mid-latitude low moving through Wednesday, will peak this afternoon, then drop through tomorrow from the S/SW as conditions improve for protected spots.

A moderate W/NW offshore is due and we'll see winds likely hold from the W into the afternoon, if not tending W/SW at times on the Surf Coast. Easing 4ft sets are due on the Surf Coast with 6ft surf to the east.

Sunday and Monday are looking really fun across the Surf Coast with pulses of reinforcing SW groundswell from back to back strengthening cold fronts that are currently pushing in under the country.

The first now looks to be the strongest, but with the second acting on the active sea state from the first, both pulses should come in around a similar size.

Currently a great fetch of W/NW-W/SW gales are being generated through our south-western swell window, almost reaching severe-gale strength. This will produce an initial pulse of SW Sunday that should kick the Surf Coast back to a fairly consistent 4ft on the swell magnets (possibly a touch undersized at dawn but well and truly in by mid-morning) with 6ft surf to the east.

The secondary front will generate a good fetch of W'ly gales and reinforcing SW groundswell for Monday, arriving late morning and again providing consistent 4ft waves on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east. Before this pulse arrives, Monday morning may see surf more to 3-4ft, with 5-6ft sets to the east.

Winds will be great and offshore from the W/NW Sunday morning, shifting S/SW mid-afternoon on the Surf Coast and SW-W/SW to the east. Monday will then see all day offshore NW winds.

The swell will ease into Tuesday and stronger N/NW winds ahead of a cold front will create tricky conditions, giving into a SW change early afternoon. There's no major surf due in the wake of this front and a much stronger and more significant storm approaching from the south-west will swing winds around to the NW on Wednesday as we fall in between swells. Expect 2ft to maybe 3ft surf on the Surf Coast.

Looking at the significant storm firing up next week, and we're looking at another 'bombing' low. The catalyst will be a strong low that's due to form off the South African coast today (south of Madagascar) forecast to track east on the weekend before being reabsorbed into the westerly storm track.

We'll see the low drop significantly in central pressure south-southwest of Western Australia, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds, weakening while projecting up towards us through next week.

This will generate a large, powerful, long-period SW groundswell for later next week but with plenty of wind. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 9:56am

now there's the autumn we've been waiting for

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 9:58am

Fully sick, Craigos. Cheers

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 9:59am

Craig, long way off but is next weeks swell on par with last Sunday’s?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 10:11am

At this stage not quite, more west in direction and smaller.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 2:50pm

Cheers

dr-surf's picture
dr-surf's picture
dr-surf Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 10:20am

Post Bells is usually the Switch. In 2013 it Pumped. Surfed every day till Oct.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 11:27am

Nice. Now the West Coasters can stop the whinging about conditions.

Nice. Now the West Coasters can start whinging about crowds.

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 4:11pm

Hey what are you talking about Nick. We've been whinging about the crowds since the first COVID lockdown. Not sure if the improving conditions are going to help thin/spread the crowds out, or make them worse. Either way I'm just happy conditions are improving.

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 11:44am

Craigos, Saturday or Sunday on the west coast this weekend? Which day would you surf if you could only pick one?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 11:52am

Depends if ya want more south in the swell direction or not.

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 12:05pm

Thanks king. Size wise pretty similar tho?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 12:12pm

There's enough detail already provided :)

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 12:21pm

A forey can never be too long craigos

Vunerable's picture
Vunerable's picture
Vunerable Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 11:51am

The long range surf forecast and a couple of nice waves has knocked the shit out of the ODSS.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 12:36pm

Fair to say...it'll be tools down on the surf coast for the next little while.

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 1:57pm

A good surf forecast should provoke thought and ideas about where to go to score waves not too much info so as to direct people to specific areas and times. VIC forecast is excellent in this regard . Just enough info but not too much

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 1:58pm

Thanks Ninja, that's my aim.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 3:01pm

I've got two words.

Western. Port.

All that needs to be mentioned for the coming weeks.

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach Saturday, 17 Apr 2021 at 10:00pm

the bay of plenty

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Saturday, 17 Apr 2021 at 2:09pm

Oh goody. This is what I have been waiting for. :-)

Guzmund's picture
Guzmund's picture
Guzmund Saturday, 17 Apr 2021 at 9:23pm

Yep. Fun surf today ;)

theolderIgetthebetterIwas's picture
theolderIgetthebetterIwas's picture
theolderIgetthe... Sunday, 18 Apr 2021 at 7:04pm

yep - thank Zeus - were finally back in a good pattern and I've got a board I actually like..
I get the feeling that some members from the covid crowd may not have stuck with it...
I certainly thought that LD1 was much more crowded than LD2... but then again - restrictions were different..

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Monday, 19 Apr 2021 at 4:33am

its great maybe corona did slow the progression of surfing and crowds a bit. no rip curl pro for 2 straight years is a massive factor i think

mattpetersen8662's picture
mattpetersen8662's picture
mattpetersen8662 Tuesday, 20 Apr 2021 at 1:51pm

What role do you think you pro surfing plays to the average punter, especially considering the numbers last year under covid were huge/all time peak with no or little pro surfing? People are back to normal work and life me thinks.

shae.robertson's picture
shae.robertson's picture
shae.robertson Monday, 19 Apr 2021 at 1:05pm

6/10 today by the forecaster/reporter --- amazing!?????

mattpetersen8662's picture
mattpetersen8662's picture
mattpetersen8662 Tuesday, 20 Apr 2021 at 1:49pm

I have never made sense of the ratings. Surely yesterday should be at least an 8 or 9 or probably a 10.