Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 16th April)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday morning, Thursday/Friday protected spots

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SW swell tomorrow with morning W/NW winds, workable into the afternoon
• Good SW groundswell for Sun and Mon, easing Tue
• W/NW morning winds Sun AM, fresh NW winds Mon, strong N/NW Tue am ahead of a strong SW change
• Significant swell for later next week from 'bombing' low

Recap

Our stronger W/SW groundswell for yesterday filled in nicely across the Surf Coast with 4-5ft+ sets on the magnets through the day (a touch slow at times) with generally favourable winds, larger to the east and best in protected spots.

Today we've got our reinforcing SW and S/SW groundswell pulses filling in but with less favourable winds and conditions. Protected spots are the pick and we should see the Surf Coast peaking at 5-6ft with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend and next week (Apr 17 - 23)

Today's large mix of swells, generated by a polar front projecting up behind the mid-latitude low moving through Wednesday, will peak this afternoon, then drop through tomorrow from the S/SW as conditions improve for protected spots.

A moderate W/NW offshore is due and we'll see winds likely hold from the W into the afternoon, if not tending W/SW at times on the Surf Coast. Easing 4ft sets are due on the Surf Coast with 6ft surf to the east.

Sunday and Monday are looking really fun across the Surf Coast with pulses of reinforcing SW groundswell from back to back strengthening cold fronts that are currently pushing in under the country.

The first now looks to be the strongest, but with the second acting on the active sea state from the first, both pulses should come in around a similar size.

Currently a great fetch of W/NW-W/SW gales are being generated through our south-western swell window, almost reaching severe-gale strength. This will produce an initial pulse of SW Sunday that should kick the Surf Coast back to a fairly consistent 4ft on the swell magnets (possibly a touch undersized at dawn but well and truly in by mid-morning) with 6ft surf to the east.

The secondary front will generate a good fetch of W'ly gales and reinforcing SW groundswell for Monday, arriving late morning and again providing consistent 4ft waves on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east. Before this pulse arrives, Monday morning may see surf more to 3-4ft, with 5-6ft sets to the east.

Winds will be great and offshore from the W/NW Sunday morning, shifting S/SW mid-afternoon on the Surf Coast and SW-W/SW to the east. Monday will then see all day offshore NW winds.

The swell will ease into Tuesday and stronger N/NW winds ahead of a cold front will create tricky conditions, giving into a SW change early afternoon. There's no major surf due in the wake of this front and a much stronger and more significant storm approaching from the south-west will swing winds around to the NW on Wednesday as we fall in between swells. Expect 2ft to maybe 3ft surf on the Surf Coast.

Looking at the significant storm firing up next week, and we're looking at another 'bombing' low. The catalyst will be a strong low that's due to form off the South African coast today (south of Madagascar) forecast to track east on the weekend before being reabsorbed into the westerly storm track.

We'll see the low drop significantly in central pressure south-southwest of Western Australia, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds, weakening while projecting up towards us through next week.

This will generate a large, powerful, long-period SW groundswell for later next week but with plenty of wind. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!