The drought breaker
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 12th April)
Best Days: Tomorrow on the beaches, later Wednesday protected spots, Thursday protected spots, possibly early Friday Surf Coast, Saturday and Sunday protected spots
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Easing S/SW swell with strengthening N/NE winds tomorrow
- Building mid-period W/SW swell Wed PM with strong NW tending W winds
- Good W/SW groundswell peaking Thu AM with fresh NW tending W winds
- Secondary S/SW groundswell building Fri with SW winds, easing Sat with NW-W/NW winds
Fun waves across the Surf Coast Saturday with a moderate sized swell and clean conditions through the morning.
Our oversized, long-period and significant SW groundswell from the 'bombing' low didn't disappoint. Cape Sorell shot north and saw Maximum Wave heights to 16.6m late Saturday with Significant Wave Heights holding above 8m at peak periods above 16 seconds.
This converted to maxing 10-12ft surf across the Surf Coast magnets but with generally poor conditions, cleanest in protected and novelty spots but busy.
The swell started to ease into the afternoon, smaller today but still large and to 6ft on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east. Winds have backed off across the Surf Coast providing a slight improvement in conditions but protected spots are still best.
This week and weekend (Apr 13 - 18)
We'll see yesterday's swell continuing to drop away in size and power through tomorrow and we'll see the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Seroja pushing in quickly from the west. This will bring strengthening N/NE winds, favouring the beaches with easing sets from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east.
Now, last week the models were still up in the air regarding how the remnants of Seroja would interact with another mid-latitude low deepening off the southern Western Australian coast early-mid this week and we've now got some consensus.
Last week the swell potential was minimal, but we're now looking at a much better looking frontal progression firing up through the Bight as the remnants feed into the mid-latitude low, resulting in a further deepening and strengthening of the low.
This will generate a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds, weakening as approaching us through Wednesday, then dragging up a strong polar front behind it into Thursday.
A moderate-large W/SW groundswell is now on the cards for Thursday morning, with Wednesday seeing building mid-period W/SW energy as the front pushes through. Winds on Wednesday will be strong from the NW tending W and after starting small on the Surf Coast, we should see sets to 3ft+ by late in the day.
Thursday looks good with surf to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast (much smaller protected spots with the west direction) with 6-8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds look great for protected spots with a gusty NW tending W breeze, while SW winds look to create generally average conditions Friday. In saying this the Surf Coast is likely to see a dawn W'ly.
Surf wise, a reinforcing S/SW groundswell is due through the afternoon, generated by the trailing polar front, with a fetch of severe-gale S/SW-SW winds forecast to be projected on top an active sea state, north through our southern swell window.
We should see the Surf Coast kick back to 4-6ft late afternoon, 6-8ft to the east but with those onshore winds.
Saturday looks much better with winds reverting back to the W/NW-NW as the swell slowly eases, similar Sunday.
Longer term there's plenty more fun surf to follow, so all in all we've got an active and good period of surf ahead for protected spots.