Craig

The drought breaker

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 12th April)

Best Days: Tomorrow on the beaches, later Wednesday protected spots, Thursday protected spots, possibly early Friday Surf Coast, Saturday and Sunday protected spots

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing S/SW swell with strengthening N/NE winds tomorrow
  • Building mid-period W/SW swell Wed PM with strong NW tending W winds
  • Good W/SW groundswell peaking Thu AM with fresh NW tending W winds
  • Secondary S/SW groundswell building Fri with SW winds, easing Sat with NW-W/NW winds

Recap

Fun waves across the Surf Coast Saturday with a moderate sized swell and clean conditions through the morning.

Our oversized, long-period and significant SW groundswell from the 'bombing' low didn't disappoint. Cape Sorell shot north and saw Maximum Wave heights to 16.6m late Saturday with Significant Wave Heights holding above 8m at peak periods above 16 seconds.

This converted to maxing 10-12ft surf across the Surf Coast magnets but with generally poor conditions, cleanest in protected and novelty spots but busy.

The swell started to ease into the afternoon, smaller today but still large and to 6ft on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east. Winds have backed off across the Surf Coast providing a slight improvement in conditions but protected spots are still best.

This week and weekend (Apr 13 - 18)

We'll see yesterday's swell continuing to drop away in size and power through tomorrow and we'll see the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Seroja pushing in quickly from the west. This will bring strengthening N/NE winds, favouring the beaches with easing sets from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east.

Now, last week the models were still up in the air regarding how the remnants of Seroja would interact with another mid-latitude low deepening off the southern Western Australian coast early-mid this week and we've now got some consensus.

Last week the swell potential was minimal, but we're now looking at a much better looking frontal progression firing up through the Bight as the remnants feed into the mid-latitude low, resulting in a further deepening and strengthening of the low.

This will generate a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds, weakening as approaching us through Wednesday, then dragging up a strong polar front behind it into Thursday.

A moderate-large W/SW groundswell is now on the cards for Thursday morning, with Wednesday seeing building mid-period W/SW energy as the front pushes through. Winds on Wednesday will be strong from the NW tending W and after starting small on the Surf Coast, we should see sets to 3ft+ by late in the day.

Thursday looks good with surf to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast (much smaller protected spots with the west direction) with 6-8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds look great for protected spots with a gusty NW tending W breeze, while SW winds look to create generally average conditions Friday. In saying this the Surf Coast is likely to see a dawn W'ly.

Surf wise, a reinforcing S/SW groundswell is due through the afternoon, generated by the trailing polar front, with a fetch of severe-gale S/SW-SW winds forecast to be projected on top an active sea state, north through our southern swell window.

We should see the Surf Coast kick back to 4-6ft late afternoon, 6-8ft to the east but with those onshore winds.

Saturday looks much better with winds reverting back to the W/NW-NW as the swell slowly eases, similar Sunday.

Longer term there's plenty more fun surf to follow, so all in all we've got an active and good period of surf ahead for protected spots.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 12:16pm

Guaranteed NNNNNNW tomorrow on MP. Fresh North is always just shy of N/NW

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 2:10pm

Will suit your end a bit better than the rest NB.
But on more worrying matters, breaking news...
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https://www.betootaadvocate.com/breaking-news/victoria-police-investigat...

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 4:11pm

Craig looks like a relatively small swell for Bass Strait next weekend. No good for and Island there which was pumping last weekend?

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 4:13pm

Your the worst kind of person

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 5:30pm

+1

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 7:15pm

One should not refer specifically to any actual break or surf spot. That just makes surfers cross It is an unwritten rule that I broke once and it will never happen again. Hence The general tips that this website provides are not specific such as "North side of Phillip Island" , " Protected spots in Westernport " etc. You get the idea?

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 8:59am

Sorry guys paid the money and looks like no refund was hoping Craig was going to send a bolt from heaven and be my saviour. I'm a naughty boy and won't do it again even though every man and his mutt knew about it - and knows about it. When was the last time anybody surfed the never mentioned quality waves when they are firing without 100 people out?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 9:26am

Is Phillip Island a semi secret locale only to be mentioned in hushed tones now?

Probably explains why all those dirt roads and vacant land out the back of Woolies in the 80's are mostly bitumened and chockas now.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 9:55am

Yes Ringa, I remember the flat expanse where you could see for miles and miles as what few buildings there were, were on stilts and didn't interrupt the denuded panorama.

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 11:05am

Apologies to those that battled a maxed crew at Lorne Point on Sunday.
I made mention, here, of said point break in the lead up to the large swell event and as such may have contributed in the encouragement of several extra frothers paddling out there.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 11:38am

Don't sweat it Warri. Lorne is chockas full of school holiday kids and parents, Range Rover SUP-ers, the odd foiler, van lifers and all other kinds of flotsam and jetsam at the moment (one of which was me). It was destined to be wall to wall on Sunday. I took my chances and came out second best. I hope you got a few.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 2:18pm

Was watching the cam for a bit on Sunday morning, and could see people going off the rocks on the right of screen and then paddling straight out and sitting at the top of the pecking order. What's the vibe like when crew are continually doing that?

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 4:20pm

Plenty of places like that. You can paddle round the button at Winki, head out to the bowl from Rincon, jump off at the rocks at Snapper....etc etc. I think it's more about not being an arsehole than anything else. For the short time I was there, the vibe seemed OK. Take off spot was kind of variable - wonky waves, so that might have been a factor.

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 1:51pm

you're right about Sunday, pays to be first in tho (me) but even that's getting worse now with so many who seem to be able to see in the dark

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 2:07pm

GMO Carrots mate. Get amongst it!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 3:26pm

Bombing low swell bombs out today. Classic too big too small

dr-surf's picture
dr-surf's picture
dr-surf Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 3:52pm

I think Mentioning Unsecret Spots is totally acceptable. To think most Surfers aren’t Switched On to prevailing conditions is Absurd. Enjoyed checking in on Lorne Pt and seeing the Waves on Offer. I think Lorne Pt delivered in Spades for most Punters that turned Up.

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 5:11pm

Did anyone who went to Lorne on Sunday think it wouldn't be packed? Luckily it was pretty much non stop waves even through the high tide which is most unusual on a SW swell. Longboarders were at a disadvantage compared to shortboarders from what I saw. If you took your chances you could get waves, but it was a shit fight.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 10:30am

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that we only ever seem to get these kind of swells on weekends, thus guaranteeing the chances of a complete shitshow. Actually, I think 90% of the remotely decent days this year have been on bloody weekends.

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 7:21am

Hey Craig, just looking at the new swell starting to register on sorell this morning and it's NW in direction.
I can't remember ever seeing this before ...... and surely this will not translate well into a good swell for the SC?
Cheers.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 7:26am

Ha, yeah that's from this local fetch of gales. No swell from that, but behind it..

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 7:57am

aah yes that makes sense. Ta!
Thought it was a bit weird otherwise....