Varying surfing options this period

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th March)

Best Days: Thursday morning exposed beaches, Saturday morning Surf Coast, Monday morning Surf Coast, keen surfers Tuesday, beaches Wednesday and Thursday mornings

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing SW swell over the coming days with variable tending E/NE winds both tomorrow and Fri AM
  • New SW swell building Fri PM with sea breezes, easing Sat with a W/NW breeze, shifting strong SW mid-afternoon
  • Weak windswell for Sun with gusty, abating SW winds, a touch stronger (swell) Mon with NW winds ahead of an afternoon SW change
  • Good SW groundswell Tue but with S/SE winds, easing Wed with morning NE breezes

Recap

An inconsistent new SW groundswell filled in yesterday with clean conditions through the morning on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft sets, building a touch further into the afternoon but with deteriorating conditions.

Larger surf was seen to the east, and this morning we've got a drop in swell with sets to 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east with workable, lighter onshore winds.

This week and next (Mar 11 - 19)

We'll see the surf continuing to drop in size over the coming days but with better winds for the beaches, becoming variable tomorrow morning and tending light E/NE and possibly even N/NE (most likely variable) ahead of sea breezes. The Surf Coast looks to see SE winds all day.

The dawn session will likely be a little lumpy east of Melbourne, improving as the morning progresses.

The swell will be on the way out though, easing from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday looks similar wind wise, but the swell will be at a low point in the morning, ahead of a late increase in new, SW groundswell (with sea breezes).

This swell (which now looks to be more towards the groundswell category compared to mid-period energy), is being generated by a patchy polar low that's currently south-west of Tasmania, with winds speeds mostly only strong, but reaching gale-force at its core.

It's not ideally angled but we should see a fun kick in size Friday afternoon, with the swell arriving a touch earlier owing to the slight increase in period, building to 2-3ft by dark on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Similar sized waves are due Saturday morning as the swell starts to ease and an approaching front now looks to bring W/NW winds from dawn, shifting strong SW early afternoon.

Now, this front doesn't look to have much strength behind it, with a broad swathe of strong SW winds being projected towards us Friday evening and Saturday.

This will kick up a windswelly swell for Sunday to 2-3ft and and 3-5ft respectively across the Surf Coast and Mornington Peninsula with gusty, easing SW winds.

Another, stronger and broader polar front will push up behind Friday's system, generating a better fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our south-western swell window.

The front will be fast moving but acting on an active sea state, producing a better pulse of SW groundswell for Tuesday, pushing the Surf Coast to the 4ft range with 5-6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Ahead of this on Monday some slightly better mid-period swell energy is due and the approaching front will tip winds NW, holding until mid-afternoon, favouring the Surf Coast. Tuesday unfortunately looks onshore as a high moves in behind Monday's change, bringing light to moderate S'ly winds.

Wednesday looks best as winds shift around to the NE and the swell eases back in size from 3ft and 4-5ft+ respectively.

Following this it looks like we'll see high pressure dominate our swell window as we push back towards positive Southern Annular Mode territory (pushing the storm track to the poles). This doesn't bode well for autumn fronts and swells, but with favourable winds for the beaches.

More on this Friday.

Comments

jshe35's picture
jshe35's picture
jshe35 Wednesday, 10 Mar 2021 at 1:06pm

Not related to the forecast but Vic related. I am one of those 'beloved' Melbourne surfers that head down to the Surf Coast and PI when I have a chance. Just wanted to thank the local Phillip Island surfer who went out of his way on Sunday to let me know about the dead whale on the beach at Forest Caves as I suited up in the dark at dawn to head out. High tide and whale blood.... would have been good times- there were 3 young fellas that were heading up the path before me so not sure if they went in or not but anyway, thanks again- must have been tempting to let the 'blow-ins' be shark-bait.....

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Thursday, 11 Mar 2021 at 8:15pm

Dead whale floating around Mornington atm now too (bayside, not ocean)

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Thursday, 11 Mar 2021 at 8:56pm

Really ! There should be some great viewing of any sharks that show up..

JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson's picture
JamesFerguson Thursday, 11 Mar 2021 at 4:47pm

Hope everyone enjoys a few waves this coming weekend. Looks like it’s then back to another fortnight of easterlies. The worst run in living memory on the SC continues.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Thursday, 11 Mar 2021 at 6:24pm

it would be interesting to know what the exact documented worst run ever on surfcoast was. when i had no pubes and it was crud for the entire holidays it felt like a lifetime.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 11 Mar 2021 at 9:22pm

Holidays only ended 6 weeks ago. You grown pubes in that time?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 11 Mar 2021 at 9:39pm

The Long Wait

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Thursday, 11 Mar 2021 at 10:39pm

Yes James, I was thinking the same thing. Hopefully something happens to change that coming pattern. I'll definitely be out to get a few decent waves this weekend.