Get stuck in today before the swell drops and winds change

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 5th February)

Best Days: Today (ahead of a late afternoon change), tomorrow ahead of the change, beaches for the keen Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing SW groundswell tomorrow with fresh N/NW tending stronger NW winds ahead of a late afternoon, shallow change
  • S/SW windswell building Sun with strong W/SW tending SW winds
  • Inconsistent SW groundswell Mon with fresh S'ly winds
  • Cleaner on the beaches Wed AM but small, weak and fading surf


Fun, easing surf across the beaches yesterday with clean conditions and dropping surf from 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, 2-3ft on the Surf Coast.

Today we’ve got our new, inconsistent SW groundswell on the coast with lully though good quality 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, with 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves on the Surf Coast swell magnets. Winds are excellent for the beaches and should remain so until late afternoon. Make the most of it as winds will become less favourable tomorrow.

This weekend and next week (Feb 6 - 12)

Today’s inconsistent SW groundswell should peak through the day, with Cape Sorell currently showing some good figures, peaking this morning.

We’ll see it start to ease back through tomorrow though with sets dropping from a slow, full 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets, and 4-5ft to the east. Take into consideration the big morning high tide and plan accordingly.

Conditions will be best on the Surf Coast with a freshening N/NW tending stronger NW breeze, giving into a shallow afternoon S/SW change.

This shallow change will give into a stronger W/SW tending SW change through Sunday, creating poor conditions for all locations. This change is linked to the mid-latitude low that’s stalled west of us through the end of the week, bringing us favourable winds, finally pushing east and across us.

Behind the low a weak fetch of S/SW winds will bring a spike in weak S/SW swell Sunday afternoon to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft to the east.

Our, stronger though inconsistent groundswell due late in the day and more so Monday is on track, but so are the fresh onshore S’ly winds in the wake of Sunday’s change. This swell was generated by a slightly smaller (in scope) polar low, firing up in a similar position to the one generating today’s swell. Seeing today’s size, I’ve slightly revised the expected peak in energy due Monday, with infrequent 3ft+ waves due on the Surf Coast magnets, 4-5ft+ to the east, mixed in with easing S/SW swell from Sunday.

Winds will swing more S/SE-SE Tuesday morning but the swell will be on the ease, dropping from 2-3ft and 4ft respectively. Wednesday still looks cleaner on the beaches with an E/NE tending NE breeze through the morning, but the swell will be weak and on the way out, dropping from 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2ft to maybe 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Following this there’s nothing too significant on the cards until next weekend and the following week. We may see some fun mid-period W/SW swell with favourable winds for the beaches as a high moves in from the west. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!


The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking Friday, 5 Feb 2021 at 7:35pm

So where the hell did this 20 kt southerly spring up from. Twin centres in the low?
Stuffed the open beaches this arvo when it looked a lock

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 6 Feb 2021 at 10:00am

Little trough in the main, broader low.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 6 Feb 2021 at 8:23am

Lovely lines at 13th this morning.

spelled3's picture
spelled3's picture
spelled3 Sunday, 7 Feb 2021 at 11:41am

Big night Fri night - missed Sat morning :-( All my own fault.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Monday, 8 Feb 2021 at 11:09am

Sat morn was ok but you didn’t miss too much (in the east). Friday was the day :)

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Sunday, 7 Feb 2021 at 8:53pm

Friday I'd say you were pretty accurate on the size. Seemed to pulse/build for a while during the session. Some great rain squalls going over too.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 7 Feb 2021 at 9:50pm

Oh, that's good to hear.