Craig

Significant low on the way

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 30th November)

Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow morning, protected spots for the keen into the afternoon, protected spots Wednesday and Thursday morning, Saturday morning on the beaches

Recap

The large swell seen into late last weekend tailed away into Saturday and a funky trough brought a strong onshore change just before dawn, but this quickly flipped back to the north creating cleanish, though funky conditions across the state's exposed beaches. The surf was easing from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-5ft to the east before winds then swung onshore again late morning.

Yesterday was poor with strong onshore winds and smaller surf, while today conditions are improving on the beaches with a new building mid-period swell to 3-5ft on the exposed breaks, 2-3ft on the Surf Coast but not as clean.

This week and weekend (Dec 1 - 6)

Today's building mid-period energy was generated by a broad, though relatively weak frontal system spawning off a polar low that formed south-west of Western Australia last Friday.

This swell is due to hold tomorrow morning to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east, but a less consistent and stronger pulse of SW groundswell from the polar low is due to fill in through the day. We may see the odd bigger set at times with this pulse, and conditions look good for the beaches in the morning with a strong N/NE breeze.

Winds should ease and swing W'ly late morning/early afternoon before strengthening again from the W/SW-W ahead of an approaching front. This will favour protected spots for the keen.

This strengthening frontal system also originated from the polar low on the weekend, pushing north-east across Western Australia, drawing in heat and instability while dipping south-east and into our swell window tomorrow.

The combination of cold and hot, moisture laden air will result in the formation of a rapidly deepening and significant low pressure system, with it just falling short of reaching 'bombing' thresholds.

As this low deepens tomorrow we're expected to see a fetch of severe-gale W/SW-SW generated directly south-west of us, with core wind speeds reaching storm-force.

This will produce a large, consistent SW swell event with everything from long-period energy (from the strong core winds) to mid-period swell.

We should see the size building out of the W/SW initially Wednesday morning, with the largest pulse from the SW arriving into the afternoon, peaking late afternoon/evening.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should build from 4-5ft (magnets) to 6-8ft into the late afternoon, with 6-8ft surf to the east, building to 10ft+ into the late afternoon.

Winds will favour protected spots with a fresh to strong W/NW morning breeze on Wednesday, shifting SW late morning.

The swell will ease steadily as the low pushes east-southeast across Tassie on Wednesday, leaving easing 4-5ft+ waves on the Surf Coast early Thursday, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will be great for the Surf Coast and light W/NW ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

Come Friday an approaching front will bring fresh W/NW winds ahead of S/SW change, but smaller surf. Size wise the Surf Coast looks 2ft+, with 4ft sets to the east.

Moving into the weekend and winds should swing around to the NE on Saturday with small, easing mid-period swell from 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to possibly 4ft to the east.

Into Sunday we're likely to see another strong low form more on top of us, though strongest once east of Tasmania. This will likely bring a low quality though possibly sizey localised windswell, but we'll have a closer look at this Wednesday and Friday.

Comments

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 30 Nov 2020 at 5:14pm

Excellent!

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman commented Monday, 30 Nov 2020 at 6:07pm

Yes, Surf Coast looking pretty good. Too bad we didn't get a few more forecasts like this over winter, but I'm happy to take them at this time of year that's for sure.

mark

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Monday, 30 Nov 2020 at 8:28pm

Should be nice and uncrowded too.....

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 30 Nov 2020 at 8:50pm

what's my season again?

Craig - is this the MJO playing silly buggers with northern Australia, roasting it, and holding back the La Nina? Means that we stay cool, with good swell?

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 6:53pm

T'was really fun if you timed it correctly today. Warm water, fast grinding groundswell, I'm stoked, keep it coming Huey.......

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 7:20pm

It probably won't be uncrowded if you flogs keep talking up the swell 6 hours before it hits

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 7:33pm

It probably will be crowded if the flogs talk down the swell 6 hours before.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 7:39pm

I was being sar-cas-tic dickhead.

Anyhow, tomorrow will be pelting W/SW wind and the usual low grade mess will present itself at dawn on the S.C.

Have fun!

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 7:53pm

I assume your talking pooo poo man.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 8:15pm

Affirmative Finbob.

Joff's picture
Joff's picture
Joff commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 8:35am

Gotta love when you accidentally give up the troll account haha!

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 7:57pm

haha love stirring you old cnts

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 8:52pm

Meh.....if you're any good, I'm sure you'll still get ya fill but if not...maybe try somewhere more akind too your ability and when you're eventually ready to go get some, yes, go get it.

Crawl before you walk people's....walk before you run people's, run before.... I don't know....you do a Usain Bolt running machine.
Just do everyone out there a bloody favour, watch yourself surf first on video and then judge whether you'll be amongst the crew competing for waves at a certain spot or if you'd be a hindrance to the whole seen, surely this is not that difficult?

I ain't no advanced or pro surfer but I know when I'd be a neucence to people that are, by arrogantly paddling out and attempting to go get some.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Tuesday, 1 Dec 2020 at 8:56pm

Just did a late surf check on the SC and it looked very ragged and no sign of the new swell.
Did manage to get a few today before the wind swung WSW.
If this swell is to produce anything of quality, it would want to pick up and clean up substantially overnight.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 6:28am

Save your petrol money folks.
That was a massive overcall. On the ground report is as follows: mildly wonky 3-4 ft. I only watched for 5 mins so there may have been bigger sets, but given where the three surfers were positioned on the beach break, I doubt they are that much bigger.
Very underwhelming. Time for work instead.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 6:43am

Huh, seen solid 4-6ft sets on the reefs and the swell proper is still yet to come. This morning W/SW and this afternoon SW.

Also there wasn't any new swell from this low due yesterday at all. You'd know if you were a subscriber.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 7:14am

I just checked JJ beach and there was only 2 out. No sign of 4-6ft sets. Only 1 out at Sparrows. None at Haystacks.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 8:30am

video on thesurfcoastdaily shows some pretty solid swell at bells

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 2:01pm

Surfcoastdaily? I really can't get my head around these people with FB accounts like this posting updates for the masses. What's next, bloody wake up calls? Is there no window of opportunity where you can luck into an uncrowded surf anymore without some self-promoting muppet broadcasting it to the masses? Maybe that's part of the reason why a mate watched Bells for 20 minutes this morning and watched kooks falling from the sky and three people to a wave. Another bloody broadcast to monitor for crowd prediction.....

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 2:34pm

yeh I don't understand it either, surf coast has quite a few of those pages for some reason posting daily. They get nothing out of it other than likes and increased crowds so whats the bloody point.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 6:42am

If you have any kind of surf craft, get to pinesuwatu or mercury creek, it will be maxing out at 4 ft on the cowards cove scale.
Swell is big and raw looking at the western end of the insular.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 8:28am

was actually a bit of fun in the bay, got a few before the tide got too low

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 7:24am

Must be one of those weird swells where TQ point is 2x bigger then everywhere else eh..


Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 7:34am

Wow. Didn't see anything remotely close to that. My son surfed the dawnie for an hour and a half and said it was 4ft. Reckon that set might be an outrider.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 7:46am

You talkin shit again Vic?

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 7:52am

Shame that CS and CdC buoys are offline. Been refreshing them too many times Craig?!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 7:55am

Have indeed! Looks like a transmission connection issue with the BOM as both are down and so is Cape Otway AWS.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 8:14am

Looking at this ASCAT pass we're likely to see sets above my forecast above later today on the Surf Coast..

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 11:13am

All the clowns in town will be down at fisho's for the 2pm high tide then. The guys that missed out on winki anyway

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 12:36pm

You may be right poo man.
It started picking up around 8am and it's showing no signs of backing off ATM. the groms will be whipping themselves into a frenzy at school. Probably a good thing the break wall / harbour set up at the Surf Coast's premier sand bottom point got knocked back.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 3:43pm


Plenty of swell about but you just know that there's limited opportunities along the coast with this sort of business going on at 13th ;)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 2 Dec 2020 at 3:52pm

That MV?