Great weekend, mixed next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 18th September)
Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday Surf Coast, Surf Coast Wednesday and Thursday
Conditions weren't too bad yesterday morning with a light to moderate onshore breeze and drop in size from Wednesday, best across the Surf Coast before winds strengthened into the afternoon.
Today winds are improving for the beaches and swinging more offshore with 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, choppy and junky to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast reefs. We should see the beaches continue to improve ahead of late afternoon sea breezes.
This weekend and next week (Sep 19 – 25)
The weekend is shaping up as good one on the beaches with a strong new S/SW groundswell and offshore winds.
We'll see a mid-latitude low that's currently across South Australia slowly moving in from the west, squeezing a high in the Tasman Sea, swinging winds around to the N/NE-NE tomorrow morning, shifting back to the E into the afternoon. Sunday will then see stronger N/NE winds persisting all day east of Melbourne as the low edges closer, while the Surf Coast should see winds tend more N/NW from late morning.
Swell wise, the polar fetch of W'ly gales linked to our new S/SW groundswell have now pushed east and under Tasmania, with the swell spreading northwards towards us. The swell should arrive overnight and a peak is likely through the middle of the day/afternoon tomorrow to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Sunday morning looks a little smaller and easing back from 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east, but into the afternoon a reinforcing S/SW groundswell should fill in.
As discussed in Monday and Wednesday's notes, the source of this swell isn't great or well aligned. A broad and significant fetch of NW gales are moving in on the back of the sea state generated by the polar front ahead of it, and even though poorly aligned we should see some fun swell spreading out radially up and into us.
It'll be less consistent but the Surf Coast should hold 2-3ft into Sunday afternoon, 4ft+ to the east, easing from a similar size Monday morning.
Winds will shift W/NW early Monday morning as a trough shifts in from the west but we'll likely see them revert back to the N/NW through the morning, freshening into the afternoon.
Now, this low still looks average regarding swell production with all of it's swell generating fetch sitting north of us and in the Bight through the weekend and even Monday.
As the low finally moves across us Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, a weak fetch of W/SW winds will be generated in our swell window, kicking up a low quality, mid-period W/SW swell Wednesday, easing Thursday.
At this stage it looks like the Surf Coast will build to 3ft to possibly 4ft later Wednesday, smaller Thursday and easing along with strong NW tending W/NW winds on the former and W/NW tending NW winds on the latter.
Longer term the outlook is a little unsure but mid-latitude storms look to dominate which isn't the best outcome. More on this Monday, have a great weekend!