Craig

Poor weekend, not much better next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 14th August)

Best Days: Today, Tuesday for the desperate

Recap

Clean conditions across the beaches with a continuation of small to tiny surf, with inconsistent 2ft sets on the exposed breaks east of Melbourne. Today there's a hint more energy with sets near 2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft waves across the exposed beaches to the east.

Conditions should remain clean all day for the exposed beaches.

This weekend and next week (Aug 15 - 21)

There's no real change to the weekend outlook with winds expected to deteriorate as a slowly weakening mid-latitude low that's been moving in from the west pushes across us tomorrow.

This will bring our run of northerly winds to an end, with an early W/NW breeze tomorrow due to swing SW late morning, followed by strengthening SW winds on Sunday.

Size wise we'll likely see similar waves to today, 1-1.5ft or so on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east with a mix of small to tiny and inconsistent background swells.

Winds should swing back to the W/NW on Monday but again, there'll be no significant size for the Surf Coast or other protected spots with tiny waves continuing around 1.5ft. The late afternoon may see more variable winds to the east if we're lucky.

As discussed in the last couple of updates, the surf will remain small to tiny through Tuesday and Wednesday next week owing to another pair of lows moving in towards WA on the weekend, blocking our swell windows.

The more southerly positioned of these two will direct a short-lived and small burst of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our western swell window tomorrow, producing a limited pulse of W/SW swell for Tuesday. Size wise I wouldn't expect anything over 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft on the sets to the east as winds freshen from the N/NW.

Looking at the tricky movement of the more northern located mid-latitude low as it pushes east through next week, and it looks to hang too north of our swell window to generate any quality swell.

Fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW winds will all be up in the Bight, and the Mornington Peninsula will struggle to extract size from this low Thursday.

We are expected to see the low move across us later week, dragging up that polar frontal system across us on Friday, kicking up a mid-period and close-range S/SW swell for Friday, but with strong W/SW-SW winds.

There's a bit more potential following this with another couple of polar fronts likely to follow a similar track, swinging winds back to the west with moderate levels of swell. GFS isn't going down this route though, with a broad low and less swell potential on the cards.

More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!

Comments

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Friday, 14 Aug 2020 at 9:19am

Go ECMWF! Do your thing!

If GFS wins out we're cooked for another week and a half.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 15 Aug 2020 at 11:24am

What a strange time it's been.

spelled3's picture
spelled3's picture
spelled3 commented Saturday, 15 Aug 2020 at 12:30pm

Seems very weird.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Saturday, 15 Aug 2020 at 4:23pm

And you blokes do realise that when we do get a swell it will be 10-12ft plus and our fitness levels won't be up to it!!! Well at least the Cats are killing it.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

gezza25's picture
gezza25's picture
gezza25 commented Saturday, 15 Aug 2020 at 4:28pm

I just went for a 5km paddle at Mills Beach in Mornington out past the pier and back.

Going to be 24 knot westerlies on Friday - bay wave could be on.

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 8:43am

I like your optimism there Gezza

gezza25's picture
gezza25's picture
gezza25 commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 11:31am

Optimism is all we have left :-)

Longest I've been out of the water in years

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Saturday, 15 Aug 2020 at 4:31pm

I thought I'd take this once-in-a-lifetime chance to say it's looking like we might get a decent swell late next week. Normally I'd keep that information under the radar, but with lockdown on, telling everyone about a swell won't be increasing the crowds. So come on Huey, send us some love.
Oh and if Dan Andrews is reading this: we've been good boys and girls on the Surf Coast. Only a handful of cases of Covid 19 and we aren't like those Geelong people. So if infection numbers go up in G Town and stay low on the coast, please just put them in Stage 4 and give us a bit of a reward for doing the right thing. TIA Vic Local.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Saturday, 15 Aug 2020 at 4:48pm

mate. thats a template for the MP. you just cut'n'paste

I am the bone

Sumorage's picture
Sumorage's picture
Sumorage commented Saturday, 15 Aug 2020 at 10:09pm

Yeah mate lock everyone down except you, dickhead.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Saturday, 15 Aug 2020 at 10:25pm

Well sumorage. If numbers go up in geelong and stay low on the coast that’s precisely the way it should be. Last thing the surf coast needs is blowins bringing in covid 19. Have you not been paying attention for the last six months?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 2:42pm

"A surfer in regional Victoria who travelled more than 140 kilometres to find better waves was among hundreds of people fined by police for breaching COVID-19 restrictions.
The man, from the Surf Coast town of Torquay, made the long journey yesterday because there were "no waves on the east side", he told officers."

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 2:53pm

Lol, precedent has now been set!

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 3:06pm

Deserved the fine.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 3:14pm

I bet the same bloke has whinged about Melbourne surfers all year too.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 8:37pm

Hope they contest it.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 3:17pm

If it's the bloke Im thinking of he went and surfed Castles last Thursday. Apparently scored pretty good waves but worth it for 16 hunge???

Probably not......

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 4:47pm

Hard to have any sympathy at all for this bloke. Imagine if surfing got banned in Regional Victoria and his trip to Castles was sited as a reason.
There would be a lynch mob out.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 4:50pm

Some surf's down that way are worth the $1600 fine

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 3:51pm
mysto83's picture
mysto83's picture
mysto83 commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 7:12pm

Such selfish behaviour. Just what we need is the authorities thinking of selfish surfers and deciding to add it to list of banned activities post lockdown.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 6:38pm

Some of the authorities down there don't seem to care, not wearing masks is more selfish on their part

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 8:35pm

Why on earth would there be a list of banned activities POST lockdown!!??

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 7:34pm

Is anyone else's bosses using this you have been "stood down" you will receive jobkeeper as long as the company does to there employees.
But not having the balls to tell them they are never going to be employed again tactics. It's the golden tickets for a lay off without even sacking them.
Understanding receiving 3k a month will keep there head above water.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 7:54pm

Haven't heard of that happening, what industry is it happening in?

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 8:34pm

Depending on you contract, if you don't get the call once they're busy again you could sue the pants off them.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 9:06pm

We're not going to get busy any time soon. Construction has fallen off a cliff.
The gfc didn't hit construction hard but it took 4 years for companies to go insolvent after it. This will supersede it.
Wait until March when jobkeeper ends and unemployment is 25% fruit me.
Anyway i have never herd of the term "stood down". In 22 years of work until this state of emergency/pandemic has been declared or occurred.
And on top of all this baloney what's stopping a 3rd wave of infection's

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Sunday, 16 Aug 2020 at 10:32pm

Might be worth a chat to an employment lawyer.

Construction is an interesting one - there'll be plenty of stimulus heading that way....Gov/Council/School spending etc. Residential and commercial office on the other hand will be tough going. A case of the haves and the have nots.

Can only hope that after this painfully broad shut down, any future waves will be dealt with using a more targeted approach...i.e. not dealing employment prospects swift blows every time there's more than 100 cases reported.