Craig

Poor run of windy, onshore conditions

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 5th August)

Best Days: No good days until next Tuesday

Recap

A large increase in S/SW groundswell was seen through yesterday but with fairly raw and lumpy conditions even with a morning offshore on the Surf Coast. Protected spots were best and more so into the afternoon as winds swing strong SW.

Today we've got poor conditions across all locations with a mix of easing S/SW groundswell and windswell with fresh to strong onshore winds.

This week and weekend (Aug 6 - 9)

There's not too much to worry about missing out on this period as we see a couple of lows influencing our local winds and weather.

A strong low currently off the Tasmanian coast bringing widespread low level snow falls will shift north-east tomorrow, swinging winds more S'ly but still blowing moderate to fresh across our coasts. This will be with a drop in swell from today leaving no quality surfing options.

Later in the day but more so Friday our strong new long-period W/SW tending SW groundswell is due to fill in, produced by a strong polar low that developed south-west of Western Australia. A fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds were generated, with the low weakening and now traversing the polar shelf through our southern swell window.

The swell is likely to be seen later Thursday ahead of a peak during Friday (most likely afternoon) to an inconsistent 4-5ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east, easing Saturday from 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively.

Unfortunately winds will become a real issue as a mid-latitude low moves in from the west and squeezes a strong high to our south-west as it deepens and slides off the southern NSW coast.

With this we'll see strong E/SE winds kick in through Friday, persisting Saturday and then swinging more SE on Sunday.

This will generate moderate levels of stormy and junky windswell across all locations from Friday through Sunday, easing Monday as winds start to relax though persist out of the S/SE.

Size wise the SE windswell looks to reach 4-5ft on the Surf Coast later Friday through Saturday and then slowly start to ease Sunday as winds slowly ease.

Our secondary pulses of S/SW groundswell for the weekend and early next week look a bit smaller than Friday afternoon's and less than the localised SE windswell. Continuous fetches of pre-frontal strong to gale-force W/NW winds moving through our southern swell window should produce a kick in size to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast into Sunday afternoon, 6ft on the sets to the east, easing from a similar if not slightly smaller size Monday.

Winds will finally swing back offshore on Tuesday when the next approaching mid-latitude system swings winds to the N'th and fresh. This will be with easing levels of S/SW groundswell likely from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east.

The outlook beyond this is unclear as the models diverge on the shape, track and intensity of the incoming mid-latitude system. With this it's not worth speculating beyond Wednesday at the outlook for later next week. Check back Friday for more details.

Comments

seanboz's picture
seanboz's picture
seanboz commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 11:04am

See y'all next Tuesday then eh

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 11:07am

ah crap that's typical, finally get some decent swell roll in and it gets screwed by the wind. Still worst winter for years and not getting any better.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 3:37pm

Nah best winter.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:10am

Think the worst winter ever is the west coast not the peninsula

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 7:24am

Yep for sure. Best winter on peninsula in my ~10years here (after probably the worst summer)

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 11:48am

lucky we got to score some east coast lows in may/june before the boarder closure. not looking forward to being stuck in Torquay from sept-decemeber dark times a head

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 12:15pm

There'll still be some fun novelty waves on sat and Sunday

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 2:54pm

This winter has been that shit, there's a very good chance there will be a baby boom down here in March 2021.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 4:21pm

No chance of me adding to the forthcoming covid induced babyboom VL, my balls are purely for aesthetic purposes only, good old doctor snip took care of me, some time ago now ;)

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 4:47pm

Good looking roosters like you should never get the snip Walk around G. It's a crime against humanity. But hey, thanks for sharing that bit of info.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 3:40pm

Wonderful winter, best I can remember. Afternoon surfs till dark in light offshore to glassy conditions with 3-5 foot swell and only locals in the water.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 4:24pm

I’ll second that

Don’t agree about the only locals part though, it’s been horrendously crowded some days

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 4:48pm

Plenty of good surf days on the Surfcoast this Winter. A month of offshore wind in July and anything from 2 to occasional 5 ft. Not stellar by any means but if clean head high low tide reefs with relatively low numbers is a pain in the arse for ya it might be time to hang the board up.

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes commented Wednesday, 5 Aug 2020 at 10:25pm

You're 4'11?

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 6:38pm

Help me, I am stuck in Stalag 13 :-0

rishwil's picture
rishwil's picture
rishwil commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 7:19pm

What’s the deal with travel and surfing locally?

Line_up

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 7:29pm

If you live in St Kilda you're free to surf between Port Melbourne & Brighton beach.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 8:11pm

Pretty poor for St Kilda surfers, given the next Port Phillip Bay swell is going to hit Altona.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Guzmund's picture
Guzmund's picture
Guzmund commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 8:36pm

Fairly sure we’re not even allowed to do that :(

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 9:11pm

Tuesday and Wednesday were epic. 1-2ft with the odd 2ft+ bomb. Even some periods of sunshine every now and then.

sparx.raymond's picture
sparx.raymond's picture
sparx.raymond commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 7:53pm

I live on the tip of the Bellarine...just picked up a new shooter...looking at four days of shit at mine...could travel down the coast to a certain point that loves a humping Sou Easter...would it pass the pub test?
Stay the fuck at home...or at least in your postcode
Cheers

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 8:04pm

Apparently not allowed to “travel” for exercise in the stage 3 rural lockdown. Don’t know what that means for surfing though. Can you travel an hour? Maybe only 30 mins? Maybe only 10? Everyone has to travel some distance even if it’s only 2mins.

sparx.raymond's picture
sparx.raymond's picture
sparx.raymond commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 8:16pm

Ahhh...let me clarify for you
Apply the pub test...if things turn to shit and your to blame what would the average punter at the front bar of your local say?
Or better still...apply the Geelong Addy front page test..."Lorne outbreak traced to Armstrongs Creek iso breach"
Stay in your faarken postcode!!...not hard
Cheers

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Thursday, 6 Aug 2020 at 9:04pm

Righto