Poor run of windy, onshore conditions
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 5th August)
Best Days: No good days until next Tuesday
A large increase in S/SW groundswell was seen through yesterday but with fairly raw and lumpy conditions even with a morning offshore on the Surf Coast. Protected spots were best and more so into the afternoon as winds swing strong SW.
Today we've got poor conditions across all locations with a mix of easing S/SW groundswell and windswell with fresh to strong onshore winds.
This week and weekend (Aug 6 - 9)
There's not too much to worry about missing out on this period as we see a couple of lows influencing our local winds and weather.
A strong low currently off the Tasmanian coast bringing widespread low level snow falls will shift north-east tomorrow, swinging winds more S'ly but still blowing moderate to fresh across our coasts. This will be with a drop in swell from today leaving no quality surfing options.
Later in the day but more so Friday our strong new long-period W/SW tending SW groundswell is due to fill in, produced by a strong polar low that developed south-west of Western Australia. A fetch of severe-gale W'ly winds were generated, with the low weakening and now traversing the polar shelf through our southern swell window.
The swell is likely to be seen later Thursday ahead of a peak during Friday (most likely afternoon) to an inconsistent 4-5ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east, easing Saturday from 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively.
Unfortunately winds will become a real issue as a mid-latitude low moves in from the west and squeezes a strong high to our south-west as it deepens and slides off the southern NSW coast.
With this we'll see strong E/SE winds kick in through Friday, persisting Saturday and then swinging more SE on Sunday.
This will generate moderate levels of stormy and junky windswell across all locations from Friday through Sunday, easing Monday as winds start to relax though persist out of the S/SE.
Size wise the SE windswell looks to reach 4-5ft on the Surf Coast later Friday through Saturday and then slowly start to ease Sunday as winds slowly ease.
Our secondary pulses of S/SW groundswell for the weekend and early next week look a bit smaller than Friday afternoon's and less than the localised SE windswell. Continuous fetches of pre-frontal strong to gale-force W/NW winds moving through our southern swell window should produce a kick in size to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast into Sunday afternoon, 6ft on the sets to the east, easing from a similar if not slightly smaller size Monday.
Winds will finally swing back offshore on Tuesday when the next approaching mid-latitude system swings winds to the N'th and fresh. This will be with easing levels of S/SW groundswell likely from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east.
The outlook beyond this is unclear as the models diverge on the shape, track and intensity of the incoming mid-latitude system. With this it's not worth speculating beyond Wednesday at the outlook for later next week. Check back Friday for more details.