Fun weekend, cold, windy and large next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 31st July)
Best Days: Today, Saturday, Sunday, Monday protected spots, similar Tuesday
An increase in new W/SW swell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast yesterday morning with clean conditions and weak afternoon sea breezes, average to the east though improving a little into the afternoon.
This morning all locations are much cleaner and fun with sets to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds should remain favourable all day as the swell eases a touch.
This weekend and next week (Aug 1 - 7)
A continuation of fun sized W/SW groundswell is due over the weekend, with freshening winds tomorrow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude front. Tomorrow's swell which will fill in through the day (and could be possibly a touch undersized at dawn), was generated by a good pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales moving in behind all the activity before it this week.
The Surf Coast should continue around the 3ft range on the sets, 4-5ft to the east, if not for the possible bigger bomb on either coast at times through the day.
Winds will be fresh from the N'th, though tending N/NW on the Surf Coast and N/NE at times to the east if we're lucky.
Sunday looks similar in size and a morning N/NW breeze is due to swing NW through the afternoon.
Later in the day a better pulse of new W/SW groundswell may be seen, but Monday is a better chance for this, with it being generated by a strong polar front that's currently projecting up towards the Bight. This should produce a good, moderate sized W/SW groundswell for Monday to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east, and wind wise it looks like we have some convergence in the model guidance.
Winds look moderate to fresh from the W/NW most of the day as a vigorous polar front projects up and towards us through Sunday and Monday.
This will be as a mid-latitude low forms over Western Australia and a cut-off low from the polar front forms across Tassie Monday evening.
A large S/SW groundswell is expected off the polar source Tuesday but the timing of a strong onshore SW change and large shot of cold air is still up for grabs. We're likely to see a dawn W/NW, though we'll have to check Monday on how long it'll last.
Size wise we're looking at surf to 6ft+ on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east, easing Wednesday with a mix of windswell in the mix from the back side of the low. Winds look less than ideal though and strong from the SW.
The outlook beyond the middle of next week is still uncertain as the models diverge regarding what the low across us and also Western Australia will do, so check back here on Monday for the latest. What we can be guaranteed is a very cold and windy week of weather. Have a great weekend!