Craig

Improving waves for the Surf Coast, though nothing major

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th July)

Best Days: Wednesday onwards for spots that like winds from the north-western quadrant

Recap

Fun waves across exposed beaches Saturday with great conditions and an inconsistent W/SW groundswell to 3-4ft, 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets, easing through the day and smaller yesterday with less favourable easterly winds.

Today conditions are poor with a surface trough moving through bringing onshore winds with a small, leftover mix of swells.

This week and weekend (Jul 28 – Aug 2)

Moving into tomorrow and we've got our good, moderate sized SW groundswell on the cards, but winds in the wake of today's change and a powerful low sitting off the southern NSW coast will see winds remaining onshore all day.

A moderate to fresh S/SE breeze is due to abate slowly though the day but conditions will remain average. Size wise, a great fetch of W'ly gales generated yesterday through our swell window should provide 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast, up to 6ft to the east, easing later in the day.

Wednesday looks much better as winds shift to the N/NW and the swell eases back from 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast magnets, 4-5ft to the east.

Into Thursday winds will still be favourable and out of the W/NW, shifting SW through the early afternoon with a weakening front moving through. This front is due to bring some new swell with it, that being a mid of mid-period energy and slightly stronger groundswell owing to the initial stages of the front as it passed under WA being stronger than when it moves past us.

Thursday's swell should see the surf building back to 3ft on the Surf Coast through the day with the mid-period energy, 4-5ft to the east with Friday coming in at 3ft+ and 5-6ft respectively.

Winds will continue to favour the Surf Coast though with those W/NW tending SW breezes mentioned above, all day offshore and N/NW tending variable Friday, though possibly tending N/NE into the afternoon east of Melbourne. We'll confirm this Wednesday.

Moving into the weekend and that stronger low that was forecast to develop on the back of the progression of fronts moving through this afternoon isn't on the cards any more unfortunately.

We are due to see a reinforcing W/SW groundswell though, but size wise it looks only moderate, generated by a pre-frontal fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds moving in from the south-east Indian Ocean and under the country.

A late intensification in our south-west swell window Friday, producing an additional fetch of W/SW gales may produce a touch more size for late Saturday and more so dawn Sunday.

We should see 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves through Saturday and Sunday on the Surf Coast, 6ft or so to the east, but locally wind wise, the models diverge. We may see strengthening N'ly winds all day Saturday, swinging NW on Sunday, or worse case, N/NW winds on Saturday, shifting W/NW later and back to the NW on Sunday.

Longer term a small and tight low forming on the back of all the frontal activity this week and weekend may project up and across us further over to NSW early next week bringing a windy, onshore and sizey swell. More on this Wednesday though.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 12:35pm

Definitely over performing swell over the weekend. Still solid 5fters at lunchtime where I was. Seemed like a decent period, but boy howdy was it consistent. Usually pray for that any day of the week but of course the set up didn’t like it.

Crowd factor was fine. A few out of towners just doing the suit up and walk in. Usual a hotspot for said people but I think other places were more on the radar. Can’t complain. Lucky really.

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 12:39pm

Reckon that was you out at Penalty Bay, Finnbob

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 12:50pm

Didn't over-perform to what I expected..

"3-4ft to the east with the outside chance for the rare bigger one, easing through the day."

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:00pm

I swear that big tides have the capacity to increase/decrease wave heights. Just after the start of the incoming, the sets get bigger. I speculated it’s due to less water at the low thus not letting swell energy and conversely lets way more swell in on a big high with deeper water and tidal push. Anecdotal but happens all the time with big tide swings.

Anyways, where I was, Sat had like 4-5+ consistent and Sun 3-5ft consistent. Period was decent which probably played a part. Not complaining or criticising the forecast, just reporting back my deepest darkest diary secrets.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:05pm

Wow still 3-5ft Sunday, that is over-performing.

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:30pm

I reckon whoever does the observed reports for MP often under calls size. I think he said yesterday was 2ft.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:05pm

What time yesterday were there 5ft sets bone?
I surfed in the morning on the low and it was 3ft max

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:12pm

Read my comment above. Low tide I feel swell gets strangled. You can check data and then the ocean and it’s doesn’t add up. Come incoming tide and bam you got some extra height. Re: time - Early AM Sat and lunchtime both days. No word of a lie, ill be first in line to undercall the height within reason.

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:43pm

Didn’t think you were lying. Just curious if it was in the morning and if where I was the swell wasn’t getting into

Joshy I think yesterday’s call was accurate. 2-3ft early

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 4:43pm

Mmm, might have to adjust my scale then. I thought 3ft nudging 4 yesterday arvo.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 12:40pm

So as usual, post Benny taking over the reigns, it's taken a couple of weeks or so for you too perform some magic Craig but you always get there in the end! Ripper mate

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 12:41pm

The local coppers sent a surfer back to Melbourne with a $1650 fine the other day.
It was 1 foot and howling onshore!!!

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 12:48pm

VL
Just to confirm, that was a surfer heading SC way?
Was that the one from Stathmore going to the SC or another one?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:10pm

It was a story in the Geelong Advertiser and the person said he was heading to the SC. Not the Strathmore person so another one.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 12:56pm

Alright new forecast out for the week... let's all move on.

So, I live in a suburb about 20km from the city, I can travel down to Gunna for a surf yeh....?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:06pm

Ha.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:17pm

I'm a Sovereign Citizen with the 1912 version of the constitution (the one in the red binder) and know my legal shit.
All laws made after Kerr sacked Whitlam, including the 2006 Vic health act are not valid. Now if Kerr spoke to the queen rather than used postal mail, things would be different, so according to the 1948 UN Human Rights Charter, and as long as you're more than 21.8km from Melbourne's GPO, travelling to Gunna is fine Dx3.
I'm off to Bunnings to get some mulch for the garden and start an argument with Frank in the Tool Shop.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:22pm

Karen went to Bunnings “for a wander”, looking for a confrontation.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:23pm

Cheers VL, make sure you've got your camera turned on, because if you left your house without a mask and didn't film it to show everyone how much of a rebel you are, did it really happen?

On that, would love to hear of someone ripping the phone from a non-masker in mid-argument and just smashing the shit out of it on the ground. Needs to happen IMO.

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:25pm

Good one Dx3 was exactly what I envisaged myself doing had I’d been there.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:30pm

Yep I've committed myself to doing it (hopefully) if I see it happen. Not that you'd need it against a Karen, but there'd be plenty of people to support you if you did it. Just take the phone, smash it and keep on walking. Would be a thing of beauty to witness.

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:20pm

Yeh, but nah if you ask Vic local.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 1:59pm

So let me get this straight Joshy2000. You want to rip the phone out of some dumbass Bunning's Karen, but you also argue that it's cool to go on a fucking road trip from Melbourne (500+ new infections a day) to the MP (which has 8 new cases in the last 7 days) for a surf.
you're just as fucking stupid as Bunings Karen.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 2:04pm

Correct. I don’t think the 2 are comparable.

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 3:48pm

Let us know when you are coming so we can all welcome you with open arms.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 2:20pm

So Joshy2000, you CAN see the shitfuckery in Bunnings Karen, but you CAN'T see the shitfuckery in your own behaviour.
You're both entitled fuckers who don't give a toss about anyone but themselves.
I don't wanna wear a mask. I'm special. I want to go surfing during a pandemic. I'm special.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000's picture
Joshy2000 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 2:34pm

No you’re special VL.
I think it’s time you demand Ben change his content and stop forecasting again.
Better yet, you should be taking over Dan’s daily press conferences cos you certainly know better than him and Sutton.
The local heavy who drops in on anyone he doesn’t personally know in the lineup, and suspects may be out of towners.
What a tool.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 2:37pm

The stupidity (under underlying privilege) of this is that Covid is spreading in workplaces, where lower socio-economic people are having to work! Surfing has fuck all to do with it!

We may as well argue about hangliding, motorbike riding or fucking dog walking.

Karen/Ken from the inner East isn't spreading shit with or without his/her mask. It doesn't fucking matter. They've been hunkered down in there 4 bedder, with a garden, pool and indoor gym to keep them happy. They're jobs are all WFH, not that they really need to work, and they've got stockpiles of santiser to boot.

Crew going surfing from the city are generally the same - they have the luxury of time and can afford to surf, so they're very likely to be in a comfortable position to protect themselves. Not that surfing is, in any way a reasonable risk of transmission.

It's the poor individuals who need to make that shift at their process line job, or in aged care, regardless of how they feel! That's where it's running rampant.

All this bickering on this page is frivolous, and dare I say, an indicator of priviledge!

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 2:58pm

Stok, I get where you're coming from, but you're forgetting the first wave was very much concentrated in the posh suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne.
The Apsen skiing set brought the virus into the country and then spread it all over Toorak and the MP. That's a reality and we now know the consequences of their actions.
Yes the virus is now concentrated in workplaces where people are on low wages, but we don't need the entitled set to start spreading it again like they did in March. Pointing the finger at meat inspectors and aged care workers on $18ph etc does not excuse the shit behaviour of the privileged set. Sorry, but travelling from Melbourne to the regions for a surf is just unacceptable. That type of behaviour is just monumentally selfish.
This virus is very predictable. The more people travel and the further they go, the faster it spreads. And if we do go into tougher restrictions, it's the "I wanna go surfing" dogs who will cry the loudest. I fucking loathe these people.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

cavemankinetics's picture
cavemankinetics's picture
cavemankinetics commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 3:21pm

More chance of “locals” spreading the virus travelling from “regional” Victoria to Melbourne for work.

Work where you live ey?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 3:45pm

Not sure if there's more chance of "locals" travelling to Melbourne and back spreading the virus compared to people out of Melbourne taking trips to the coast, but it definitely increases the risk.
There's plenty of folk down this way who aren't happy about people commuting to Melbourne for work. As I mentioned before, it should be essential services only to cross the lockdown border. Cops, nurses, paramedics should be the exception for three reasons. 1. Their work is essential. 2. They have the discipline to follow processes and minimise risk. and 3. They can take time off if they get sick without a financial penalty.
If infection numbers don't improve soon, you can expect "exercise" to be removed from the four reasons to leave home. And don't be shocked if specific professions aren't allowed to cross into and out of lockdown zone. The lockdown zone could also be expanded to include places like Colac and Geelong. This of course will be massively disruptive so you'll have to excuse my bad language aimed at people who want to travel from a covid 19 hotspot go surfing in areas that have very few infections.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 4:08pm

From memory, the Aspen crew got back before hotel quarantine commenced and didn't self-isolate despite being told to, some knowing they had the virus. Fuckwits no doubt.
You are correct in that now it's spreading in aged care and workplaces where people don't have the option to work from home, or they can't afford to not work even if feeling a bit sick, even though the government will now pay them to stay at home. That is also clear.
So those of us quickly ducking down to the shops for essentials, walking our neighbourhoods, going for a run etc, we aren't spreading or catching it. This includes those solo surfers ducking down for a 2 hour surf then heading straight back home. They aren't spreading it.

However let's not forget a couple of things and I say this as someone who surfed solo a lot March to July, but am sitting out the next few weeks to do my bit:
Beginning of June, Melbourne had 2 days of zero cases, along with a run of days of single digits. All was contained with known outbreaks. And remember, VIC numbers in hindsight were always really low, we had a spike that was quickly controlled late March/early April, it wasn't spreading much in high numbers through March-June, so the 'entitled set' you speak of weren't actually spreading it, a lot of it was still returned travelers with some outbreaks at places like Cedar Meats.
When restrictions eased, we were going about our lives in exactly the same manner as every other state in this country, in some cases doing even less as our restrictions took longer to ease off. So some restrictions were still in place, but we were allowed to head down the coast or the bush for a night away, eat at a restaurant, have a few people over etc, just like every other state.

Then it blew up. In Melbourne only. First in the north west of Melbourne and still rampant over there, but then it started to spread around other council areas. It spread not because we were starting to do the bits & pieces that every other state was doing. But because it got out of the hotels and those working at those hotels behaved in a very poor manner, spreading it to friends & family and off it went, remembering also now that winter had set in, and these sort of viruses like every winter seem to spread more as people congregate indoors. So this 2nd wave isn't on the public, it's on those responsible for the mgmt. of, and those employed at, the quarantine hotels. And from there, it's now on those going to work when not feeling 100%. Again, it wasn't and isn't the traveling surfer or the neighbourhood walker/jogger.

It'll take a lot longer, but we'll eventually get back on top of it, that's I'm confident of. And when it does, all the things you're allowed to do during eased restrictions will continue to have no impact on the spread, which includes surfing.

So yes, you're annoyed at traveling surfers from the city, but deep down you know they are not spreading it. They aren't now and they never have been. As soon as restrictions ease, I'll be back in the car doing my solo trips down for a surf as I'm slowly losing my mind not being able to do so.

Ok now I'm done with this topic, rant over.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 4:41pm

Dx3.
You make some valid points. Outdoor activity looks like it is reasonably safe. There wasn't any spread from the BLM marches and surfing is probably pretty safe. However, you're making the massive assumption that travelling surfers come down on their own, have a quick surf and go home. In reality, this isn't the case, especially with the younger crew. Did you see the party near Thredbo as an unofficial and unsanctioned University ski week activity? It's not the skiing that causes the problems.
Look at how the virus has spread to Merimbula, Batemans Bay and Sydney. It only takes 1 person to go to a cafe or pub, or stay overnight at a mate's house. They could be asymptomatic and they start off an outbreak.
I don't share your optimism that we will get on top of this. That requires real discipline from a very large percentage of the population. Everyone is going to have to make sacrifices, and travelling to surf should be top of the list.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 4:02pm

If i was from the city i wouldn't waste my time and luxury surfing medium inco swells during easter in Torquay ever. i'd drive straight past torquay and head west or you could go to NSW. If you can't find waves on you're own drive back home. That was before second wave restrictions. Now you lot have to surf pt leo while wearing mask's kinda funny really

Stimpie's picture
Stimpie's picture
Stimpie commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 3:43pm

Stok's last line says it all. And if you don't live at the beach you're out of luck. Don't travel far from home just to have a surf! It's not that fucken hard.

I don't live close to the beach anymore but I've surfed pretty much weekly for nearly 30 years. Except for this year, 5 surfs since the end of Feb'...yes its shithouse and every time I see my boards in the corner I get a knot in my stomach. But I'm sick of hearing from a bunch of cry-babies 'but mummy..... I just wanna surf mummy!!!'

Personal responsibility seems to be out the window in 2020.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 3:50pm

well said stimpie. Not sure if I agree with the "Personal responsibility seems to be out the window in 2020" statement though. 95% of people are acting sensibly. It's the 5% of fuckwits that are causing the problem. A bunch of people are getting infected through no fault of their own and it's causing serious economic hardship. There needs to be zero tolerance for the Bunnings Karens and "I just wanna surf mummy" mob. They are a menace to society.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 4:26pm

And, once again, I'll be working all week on the Pen traveling down from the original home of the Trigger bros, George Rice etc and having a few surf's as well.
If I see any southern Peninsula surfers at the regular spot in the bay, I'll quietly smile at the hypocrisy.

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 4:53pm

Waves in the bay this week? Hardly.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 5:24pm

Hardly indeed.
But I'll have my little window of 2-3ft.
Bookmark it.
And on here the daily report will be 'too small in the bay'

Guzmund's picture
Guzmund's picture
Guzmund commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 6:28pm

Stimpie and VL....spot on!

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 3:51pm

Ya gotta laugh..."posh suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne" umm ever heard of Portsea and Sorrento?

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 4:27pm

75% of the Peninsula is like that now.
Mostly just the chips on shoulder types having a winge. Like everywhere else.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Tuesday, 28 Jul 2020 at 7:18pm

Call Mr. Plow,
That's my name,
That name again
Is Mr. Plow.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 28 Jul 2020 at 7:45pm

Nice statistics plow. 75 % ya reckon?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 7:46pm

Sorrento, made by the posh for the posh.

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 7:48pm

Oh boy, i just got some https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantic_satiation from posh haha.

I am the bone

vicco11's picture
vicco11's picture
vicco11 commented Monday, 27 Jul 2020 at 10:56pm

The vic comments are damn depressing at the moment. It's really an us against them mentality and let's not forget the impact this virus is having on people's mental health. "Modelling by the Brain and Mind Centre at the University of Sydney anticipates that increased unemployment, social disconnection and health services at capacity will result in an extra 750 to 1500 suicides per year over 5 years, with an increase rate of 25-50% per year".

If you see someone blatantly doing the wrong thing then call them out on it or report them if it's that bad. I don't think that the people which are breaking the rules are reading the coments on here and will change their behavior because of said comments.

There's a fair bit of infighting on here and I personally don't think it's helping, if anything it's doing the opposite.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Tuesday, 28 Jul 2020 at 8:31am

This is the best I've felt for years, April was a bit fuked up with all the kooks following me around Torquay. It's fine now though, this is the most uncrowded Torquay has been for the last 6years. City people wouldn't undetstand. No winging here just reminding people why there is a roadblock at Lara after that crazy Easter. Who wants to give away surfing secrets on the forums anyway.... Just another reason why Torquay WAS going to become like the goldcoast

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Tuesday, 28 Jul 2020 at 8:28pm

Now now NWS, this could be interpreted as only adding to problems....

Adding to the image that locals are screaming to stop travelling surfers, ultimately, for their own selfish purposes.

Now, I know this is for some (and maybe most) not true. I'd expect most locals are frightened by city surfers bringing Covid - maybe rightly so - and are calling for surfers to do the right thing. Although I'd bet there'd be the odd 5G tower burning, Pete Evans following local who laughs at the lock downs and doesn't care who comes to their town.

If you're a local and enjoying the surf, keep it quiet, by boasting about how great it is now you'll only be encouraging quarantined crew to dash down for a few.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 28 Jul 2020 at 9:24pm

Spot on. Probably a Deakin Uni student renting a share house in Juc and going all 'core local' on us.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Tuesday, 28 Jul 2020 at 11:35pm

I don't mind inviting the odd solo surfer into town the waves here can handle a few people. We need to let some in to help keep the local businesses running. Doubt car loads of kooks will make it past little River

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Tuesday, 28 Jul 2020 at 9:07am

another day and no new sign...... come on that was entertaining