Fun, clean weekend with increasing activity next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th July)
Best Days: Saturday swell magnets, Sunday exposed beaches, Tuesday from late morning, Wednesday Surf Coast, Thursday, Friday and Saturday next week
Clean conditions with a smallish 2ft wave on the Surf Coast and 3ft to the east, but we saw a new increase in inconsistent W/SW groundswell through the afternoon as winds tended variable, providing fun waves for the mid-late session across all locations.
Today this swell has held in with inconsistent 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets with a cold but crisp offshore wind, clean across selected locations also to the east and 3ft to occasionally 4ft. We should see the swell hold most of the day as winds tend N/NE-NE.
This weekend and next week (Jul 25 - 31)
We've got a flukey new pulse of W/SW groundswell due across the state tomorrow morning, generated by a tight and intense but southward tracking low that formed south-southwest of WA Wednesday. This short-lived system produce a fetch of gales in our swell window and this should keep inconsistent 2ft+ sets hitting the Surf Coast tomorrow morning and 3-4ft to the east with the outside chance for the rare bigger one, easing through the day.
Conditions should be favourable all day for the beaches with local offshore morning winds (light N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE Mornington Peninsula), tending variable into the afternoon, if not for a late, weak sea breeze.
Come Sunday the beaches will be best with less size (1-2ft Surf Coast and inconsistent 3ft sets Mornington Peninsula) with a morning E/NE breeze, tending variable into the afternoon.
Monday looks poor with a dawn W/NW breeze due to give into a strong S/SW change mid-morning as a trough moves in from the west.
A mix of new long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell should be present, though we've got a better closer-range SW groundswell event due to build late if at all before dark, peaking Tuesday. Monday's swell with the early W/NW breeze doesn't look to top an inconsistent 2ft or so on the Surf Coast early (bigger into the afternoon but onshore).
Tuesday's swell is much better, generated by a strengthening frontal progression dipping east-southeast through our swell window on the weekend and early next week.
A fetch of strong W/SW winds will reach gale to severe-gale through Sunday while sitting in our south-western swell window, then moving east and under Tassie on Monday.
A moderate sized and long-period SW groundswell should be seen from this source, arriving overnight Monday and peaking Tuesday to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east on the sets. The swell peak may be through the day rather than early and winds will still be onshore but abating rapidly.
A dawn moderate to fresh S'ly is due to tend variable by late morning/early afternoon. This will create improving conditions though Wednesday is best as an approaching front brings fresh to strong N/NW tending W/NW winds. The swell will be on the ease though from 3ft across the Surf Coast on the sets, 4-5ft to the east.
Wednesday's front will be attached to a much broader but patchy frontal progression moving in from the west through early week, with some reinforcing W/SW groundswell due into Thursday and Friday. It's hard to put a final size on these swells but it's looking to be around 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east with persistent NW winds as the fronts deflect to the south-east.
Longer term, on the back of this progression a more significant low is on the cards, generating a larger swell for next weekend with favourable winds Saturday. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!