Lacklustre winter continues
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 20th July)
Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow morning, keen surfers Surf Coast Wednesday morning, Thursday afternoon and Friday on the exposed beaches
A fun weekend of small to moderate sized waves depending on exposure to the inconsistent W/SW groundswell energy with favourable winds for the beaches though a little blowy Saturday, more so Sunday before winds shifted more NW.
This change in wind is linked to a cold front moving through, bringing a fresh increase in mid-period W/SW energy today to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, bumpy and 3-5ft to the east.
A trailing fetch of strong SW winds behind the front should see the size kicking to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with a shift in winds to the SW and strong.
This week and weekend (Jul 21 - 26)
Our lacklustre winter (in regards to the Surf Coast) is set to continue over the coming period with no real significant swells flagged at all for the week and a bit.
The front moving through today has no real push or strength to it, but a broad fetch of trailing SW winds behind it should see the Surf Coast kicking to 3-4ft this afternoon and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with a strong SW change.
The swell should then start to ease back through tomorrow from 3ft+ or so on the Surf Coast (possible stray 4ft set on the magnets), and the 5ft range on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will be average across most locations with a moderate to fresh onshore SW breeze, W/NW early-mid morning across the Surf Coast and S/SW-SW into the afternoon.
There'll also be some inconsistent long-range groundswell energy in the mix tomorrow, but not above the size of the close-range SW energy.
Wednesday will be smaller with the swell dropping back to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east with similar winds, best through the morning on the Surf Coast for keen surfers.
Thursday looks smaller again with inconsistent background swell energy not likely to top 2ft on the Surf Coast and with a W/NW tending variable wind. The beaches could be fun into the afternoon as winds go variable with infrequent 3ft+ sets.
The models are incorrectly combining this long-range energy from the Indian Ocean with the existing mid-period energy, though we may see the rare 4ft'er on the magnets east of Melbourne into the afternoon.
Friday will be great on the beaches with a N/NE offshore and mix of very inconsistent swells easing from 3ft+ or so on the Mornington Peninsula, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast.
Unfortunately the weekend will be small to tiny though winds look to remain favourable for the beaches, but the models diverge on this owing to a tricky and broad area of troughiness moving through. So check back Wednesday for a clearer idea.
The lack of swell is due to the Long Wave Trough being continually focussed in the Indian Ocean and across Western Australia, with us being on the downward track of the incoming fronts. This is resulting in inconsistent long-range energy but with generally favourable winds.
We may see a node of the Long Wave Trough move in through early next week, possibly bringing an increase in westerly energy mid-late week but more on this Wednesday.