Good run for more exposed breaks
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th July)
Best Days: Wednesday, Thursday and Friday exposed beaches, next week
Friday's mix of new swells held into Saturday morning and conditions were clean and fun with waves to 3ft on the Surf Coast, bumpy to the east.
Sunday was a little average with a weaker and more windswelly wave along with early OK winds for the Surf Coast.
Today a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell has kept waves up around 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, cleanest in protected spots and a bumpy 3-5ft to the east.
This week and weekend (Jul 7 - 12)
Looking at the coming week and we've got a fun new long-period SW groundswell due tomorrow, holding out of the S/SW on Wednesday morning before easing into the afternoon and more noticeably Thursday.
The source of this swell was a strong low forming south of WA on the weekend, with a burst of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds generating an initial pulse of long-period energy for tomorrow morning. The developments as the low broadened and continued to generate severe-gale W/SW winds on the polar shelf are the most promising, with this fetch moving out of our swell window this morning. This will prolong the swell event as the direction swings more S/SW into Wednesday.
Looking at the expected size and the Surf Coast should see 3-4ft sets tomorrow, 5-6ft to the east though a dawn W/NW breeze will give into a S/SE change shortly thereafter, and then tending S/SW into the afternoon. This will create bumpy conditions for a majority of the day, suitable to keen surfers.
Wednesday looks much better with the S/SW energy still coming in at 3ft+ on the Surf Coast (4ft sets more than likely swell magnets), 4-5ft to the east and with local offshore (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE to the east) tending variable E/NE winds.
Thursday will be clean again on the beaches with a N/NE offshore though small easing surf from 2ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 3ft to the east.
Some small background SW groundswell will prevent the swell bottoming out Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, with the beaches looking the best as sets persist around 3ft+ or so, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast.
Winds will be favourable all day again Friday and moderate out of the N/NE, variable into the afternoon.
As touched on in Friday's notes, there's nothing too much on the cards continuing into the weekend with an upper level ridge moving in this week which isn't favourable for swell generation.
Some small background energy is likely to persist, and the models are over-forecasting the size a little. Winds will only be favourable from the W/NW Saturday morning, poor and out of the S/SE come Sunday.
Longer term a significant storm forming in our far swell window looks to generate a good long-period W/SW groundswell for next week, along with follow up activity. Winds also look favourable out of the north as the storms stay at arms length. More on this Wednesday though.