Craig

Good run for more exposed breaks

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th July)

Best Days: Wednesday, Thursday and Friday exposed beaches, next week

Recap

Friday's mix of new swells held into Saturday morning and conditions were clean and fun with waves to 3ft on the Surf Coast, bumpy to the east.

Sunday was a little average with a weaker and more windswelly wave along with early OK winds for the Surf Coast.

Today a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell has kept waves up around 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, cleanest in protected spots and a bumpy 3-5ft to the east.

This week and weekend (Jul 7 - 12)

Looking at the coming week and we've got a fun new long-period SW groundswell due tomorrow, holding out of the S/SW on Wednesday morning before easing into the afternoon and more noticeably Thursday.

The source of this swell was a strong low forming south of WA on the weekend, with a burst of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds generating an initial pulse of long-period energy for tomorrow morning. The developments as the low broadened and continued to generate severe-gale W/SW winds on the polar shelf are the most promising, with this fetch moving out of our swell window this morning. This will prolong the swell event as the direction swings more S/SW into Wednesday.

Looking at the expected size and the Surf Coast should see 3-4ft sets tomorrow, 5-6ft to the east though a dawn W/NW breeze will give into a S/SE change shortly thereafter, and then tending S/SW into the afternoon. This will create bumpy conditions for a majority of the day, suitable to keen surfers.

Wednesday looks much better with the S/SW energy still coming in at 3ft+ on the Surf Coast (4ft sets more than likely swell magnets), 4-5ft to the east and with local offshore (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE to the east) tending variable E/NE winds.

Thursday will be clean again on the beaches with a N/NE offshore though small easing surf from 2ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 3ft to the east.

Some small background SW groundswell will prevent the swell bottoming out Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, with the beaches looking the best as sets persist around 3ft+ or so, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast.

Winds will be favourable all day again Friday and moderate out of the N/NE, variable into the afternoon.

As touched on in Friday's notes, there's nothing too much on the cards continuing into the weekend with an upper level ridge moving in this week which isn't favourable for swell generation.

Some small background energy is likely to persist, and the models are over-forecasting the size a little. Winds will only be favourable from the W/NW Saturday morning, poor and out of the S/SE come Sunday.

Longer term a significant storm forming in our far swell window looks to generate a good long-period W/SW groundswell for next week, along with follow up activity. Winds also look favourable out of the north as the storms stay at arms length. More on this Wednesday though.

Comments

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 8:45am

Thanks for the update. :-)

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 11:48am

Couldn’t of said it better myself.

I am the bone

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 3:39pm

"Daily exercise will be treated differently. You can't leave metropolitan Melbourne to get your daily exercise.

"There's a number of now, on the advice of the chief health officer, very low public health risk activities that will be permitted that were not permitted last time but in the most important point to make around exercise is that you can't be going on a 4-hour bushwalk hundreds of kilometres away from Melbourne.

"You can't be going fishing outside the metropolitan area, down into regional Victoria. Regional Victoria has very, very few cases and vast parts of regional Victoria have no cases. This is designed to keep it that way."

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 3:42pm

Also, no travelling to stay at holiday houses. People with a principal residence in Melbourne must stay there.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:00pm

There's been a reasonable amount of people staying in their holiday homes over the school holidays. For places on the coast, if any infections occurred the latter half of this week comes toward the (roughly) 14 day incubation period ending - for potential infections at the start of the holidays. Holidaying family of 4 tested positive at Port Fairy after 3 days in the town.
The division between metro and Geelong (currently no cases) may help the local region. To watch will be any regional infections, Albury/Wodonga has had 3, and many traveled up to the snow or interstate on the school holidays.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:02pm

Interesting the Mornington Peninsula LGA is included in metropolitan Melbourne but not Geelong. Guess it is basically connected by suburbs.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:08pm

Sounds like happy local surfers everywhere except peninsula where Melburnites can legally travel to “exercise”. Haha

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:34pm

These are the areas in metropolitan Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire that will be under Stage Three restrictions from 11.59pm on Wednesay.

Metropolitan Melbourne: Banyule, Hume, Moreland, Bayside, Kingston, Mornington Peninsula, Boroondara, Knox, Nillumbik, Brimbank, Manningham, Port Phillip, Cardinia, Maribyrnong, Stonnington, Casey, Maroondah, Whitehorse, Darebin, Melbourne, Whittlesea, Frankston, Melton, Wyndham, Glen Eira, Monash, Yarra, Greater Dandenong, Moonee Valley, Yarra Ranges, Hobsons Bay

Mitchell Shire: Broadford, Kilmore, Seymour, Tallarook and Tooborac.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:19pm

Paging Vic Local

Tristosterone's picture
Tristosterone's picture
Tristosterone commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:51pm

I observed Vic Local's posts with interest earlier in the year. But now, I am with him. It would be grossly inappropriate to travel to the coast tomorrow.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:17pm

He’s gone very quiet actually, haven’t seen him for months

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:33pm

Small, clean user friendly waves coming up. The perfect testing grounds.

I am the bone

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:16pm

We have been cooked Nick. We have 1 case and now Melb essentially been given free reign to come down here and ‘exercise’

Detox's picture
Detox's picture
Detox commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:39pm

That sucks guys, good luck

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:42pm

Yeah, rough end of the stick there.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:53pm

Most of my surfing is done before sunrise so not really fussed on the crowds. RIP our local economy which could have ticked along like it does every winter without tourists if we could have remained open.
:-( sad stuff

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:57pm

No good :(

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:36pm

The Torquay locals (and Geelong crew) will be stoked. They've dodged a bullet. Businesses to remain open as "normal" and surfing allowed without blowins from Melbourne like me clogging lineups.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:41pm

Until they realise just how many locals they actually have these days.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 4:44pm

That was the eye opener around here.

Crowded sessions, tourists cursed, then look around and realise you know everyone in the lineup.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:29pm

Yep the surf coast locals finally get their wish. 'Locals Only' for 6 weeks. Enjoy it.

As for the MP, guess I'll see you soon for some exercise.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:32pm

Can I leave a restricted postcode to exercise?
If you live in one of the restricted postcodes then you cannot travel except for one of the four reasons:

to shop for food and essential supplies
for care or compassionate reasons
exercise
for work or study – if you can’t do it from home.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:36pm

However, there's a qualification on point three:

People cannot leave or enter the restricted areas of Metropolitan Melbourne/Mitchell Shire.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 11:50pm

Worth noting the webpage: https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-victoria

The MP crew might have an escape clause in that it says "Additionally, there will only be 3 reasons to cross the border of these metropolitan areas...". That suggests that people can't go all over metro Melb (across the borders of the nominated local government areas) for everything, otherwise it will become a cross-pollination clusterfuck of biblical proportions. So if people surfing the MP aren't local they could easily be in breach.

Just like with the first round, the outcome is for everyone to stay put and not travel unless its legit. Pretty straightforward unless you're looking for loopholes.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 8:07am

.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 8:06am

.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:00pm

I can't believe the parasites from Melbourne haven't bought the virus into winkipop already, definatly dodged a bullet. We are lucky surfing has not been banned for the winter
And yeah humans being the way they are will still flock to winkipop this week when it's small and slow. There is no such thing as common sense in the water anymore

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:52am

Calm down NSW next you'll be saying 'lock em up'. Seems to me a short step to authoritarianism this isn't fun for anybody. The west coast has been crowded forever which is one of the reasons I never go there and the epicentre is the Bells/Winki area. And Stu was spot on, during the last lock down is was chocka at my local and I knew everybody in the water by sight, hadn't seen many of them in a long while though.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 5:34pm

It's going to kill the ski season here too.

Unless they can get enough from local areas to keep the lifts turning?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 6:10pm

People from everywhere will still be coming down here. Anyone who reckons numbers in the water will drop on the Surfcoast is tripping.

Guzmund's picture
Guzmund's picture
Guzmund commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 7:58pm

Oh well. Was good while it lasted. Enjoy.......although think you will find numbers won’t significantly reduce. See you on the other side. Melb local.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 8:05pm

I thought half of Vicco was up here.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 8:13pm

It's been glorious not having them here stealing condiments from the local cafe tables.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:54am

Yeah we would like the tables too however they are a bit harder to sneak away.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 9:09pm

I'm not against this, and I know the gov is trying, but sheesh there's inconsistency all over the shop.

There'd be more than a few tradies driving up into Melbourne from Geelong, or even the surf coast, working on a crowded site full of Covid doubters, driving home and ignoring social distancing believing their safe and sound. They'd probably then be surfing up and down the coast on the weekend.

Plenty more examples like the above.

Point is containment won't work if you're still allowing people to travel unchecked...for work and care giving reasons.Should really make it state wide or at least more regional, to cover the people who'll regularly be coming in and out of the Melb Metro region.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 10:21pm

This is a really good link for regional crew to find numbers of cases in their area:

https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/victoria/your-guide-to-coronaviru...

They update it weekdays and some weekend days too. Geelong now 2 cases.

Jasetheace's picture
Jasetheace's picture
Jasetheace commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 11:24pm

I agree with Stok! 20% or more of surf Coast locals travel to Melbourne for work every day. Its them you should be worried about! Potentially Spreading it through families and friends on the coast. Rather than some Melbourne local having a sneaky surf!
The risk of transmission is minimal if any from someone coming down to surf.

Jason

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Tuesday, 7 Jul 2020 at 11:54pm

I think 20% is a bit far-fetched but a lot did the run up the road before covid. Now they're all surfing Bells and Winki on the morning shift.

Did you really say "Melbourne local"?

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:16am

How many people from Melbourne come down to Torquay to work?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 10:09am

So one in five you reckon? Just a guess or got something to back it up with?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:29am

Im confused. You have to stay at your primary residence but you could drive from Toorak to Sorrento to do grocery shopping because both are in ‘Metropolitan Melbourne’?

I am the bone

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:45am

Letter of the law yes, spirit of the law no. Send an email to Nepean's sitting member, [email protected]. Nothing will likely happen but a least get him worried.

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:36am

Me me me me

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:37am

With water temps at 13degrees, it must be bloody cold outside to get this steam off the ocean in Torquay..

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 9:01am

Yes the bird bowl had solid ice on it this morning Craig. This season we have had a few freezes and we are right on the national park which is behind the primary dune to the ocean. Seems the low areas between the dunes get below freezing relatively often if the conditions are right. My brother in law is close to the front beach (maybe a 'k' away) and never gets one. Microclimate is a wonderful thing.