Active storm track through the Southern Ocean
Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th June)
Best Days: Thurs/Fri: fun waves west of Melbourne both days, best east of Melbourne Friday with winds more N/NE. Mon PM thru' next weekend: extended run of strong surf (large later Mon/Tues/Wed) with fresh W/NW thru' NW winds. Ideal for Surf Coast and protected locations east of Melbourne.
Recap: Surf size eased a little into Tuesday, offering slow 2ft+ sets west of Melbourne, and 3-4ft sets east of Melbourne, clean with light winds. A new swell is now building across the coast. Early morning was 2-3ft in Torquay and 4-5ft at the open beaches of the Peninsula, with more size expected this afternoon. Light morning winds will freshen from the NW into the afternoon.
This week (June 11 - 12)
*This week's Forecaster Notes will be a little sporadic, and sometimes brief, as Craig is on leave*
No major change to the outlook for the rest of the week.
A series of strong polar lows travelling below the continent over the last few days have generated some new swell that’ll provide fluctuating energy through Thursday and Friday. The first new swell is already in the water, and although we probably won’t see a great deal more size than what’s on offer now, the consistency should increase a little as each new swell train overlaps the existing one.
Even better, the shallow southerly change pegged for Thursday afternoon’s been pushed a little south in latitude (around Tasmania), so conditions will remain favourable west of Melbourne all day. Additionally, the encroaching high pressure ridge on Friday will see more influence from the next approaching frontal sequence, which means winds will swing to the north and not the east - favouring all coasts, not just the open beaches east of Melbourne.
As such, expect inconsistent though fun waves around 3ft+ west of Melbourne both days, reaching somewhere in the 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft range at exposed beaches east of Melbourne. Thursday looks a little dicey on the Peninsula with freshening NW winds, Friday is a better option as we’ll see the wind tend N’ly or even N/NE.
This weekend (June 13 - 14)
I’m still not expecting much surf this weekend.
A vigorous frontal progression through the Bight will strengthen northerly winds on Saturday, ahead of a NW thru’ W/NW change on Sunday, but with Friday’s swell rapidly easing through the day surf options will be limited.
The Surf Coast could see early 1-2ft sets on Saturday but it’ll abate to a foot or less by the afternoon, and whilst we’ll see larger waves east of Melbourne - perhaps 3-4ft open beaches at dawn - it’ll be blustery with N’ly winds reaching 20-30kts through the day. Size will also ease here so your best option for a surf will be very early.
Small, residual groundswells will persist through Sunday along with building windswells at exposed beaches east of Melbourne as the onshore breeze strengthens. Only the Surf Coast will be able to handle this wind and I doubt there’ll be enough size to bother with.
Next week (June 15 onwards)
The approaching frontal progression providing swell for next week will be very active with multiple embedded lows in the westerly stream. This will produce an extended period of strong, powerful surf for all southern states, though with the overall storm track riding quite north in latitude, the swell direction will have quite a lot of west and this will attenuate wave heights along the Surf Coast.
There’s also been a slight change in the model guidance since Monday; we’re now no longer looking at a significant cut-off feature south of the Bight on Sunday, instead the fronts will line up one after another, each working on the active sea state generated by the previous system. This is a better outcome in my opinion, as we'll see a more continual swell/wind regime across the region.
Therefore, aside from a temporary period of smaller surf early Monday, we’re looking at solid surf building into the 4-6ft range along the Surf Coast by Monday afternoon, holding through Tuesday and Wednesday at a similar size before slowly easing from Thursday. There’ll be one or two larger pulses embedded within this pattern that could push a little higher, maybe 6-8ft at the regional swell magnets for a few hours. This is most likely to happen either late Monday or early Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday morning. But, confidence is not high on exactly when they'll appear.
East from Melbourne, exposed locations should push 8-10ft and there’ll be great options inside the protected bays and points under the predominant W/NW thru’ NW breeze.
Easing size from Thursday should still maintain inconsistent 3-4ft sets in Torquay through into the weekend (bigger 6ft+ surf east of Melbourne). Light winds are expected everywhere under a weak high pressure ridge so conditions will be clean.
All in all, it’s an extended run of quality, solid winter surf on the way.
See you Friday!