thermalben

Active storm track through the Southern Ocean

Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th June)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: fun waves west of Melbourne both days, best east of Melbourne Friday with winds more N/NE. Mon PM thru' next weekend: extended run of strong surf (large later Mon/Tues/Wed) with fresh W/NW thru' NW winds. Ideal for Surf Coast and protected locations east of Melbourne.

Recap: Surf size eased a little into Tuesday, offering slow 2ft+ sets west of Melbourne, and 3-4ft sets east of Melbourne, clean with light winds. A new swell is now building across the coast. Early morning was 2-3ft in Torquay and 4-5ft at the open beaches of the Peninsula, with more size expected this afternoon. Light morning winds will freshen from the NW into the afternoon.

Nice lines at Torquay this morning

Mornington Peninsula clean and smooth

This week (June 11 - 12)

*This week's Forecaster Notes will be a little sporadic, and sometimes brief, as Craig is on leave*

No major change to the outlook for the rest of the week.

A series of strong polar lows travelling below the continent over the last few days have generated some new swell that’ll provide fluctuating energy through Thursday and Friday. The first new swell is already in the water, and although we probably won’t see a great deal more size than what’s on offer now, the consistency should increase a little as each new swell train overlaps the existing one.

Even better, the shallow southerly change pegged for Thursday afternoon’s been pushed a little south in latitude (around Tasmania), so conditions will remain favourable west of Melbourne all day. Additionally, the encroaching high pressure ridge on Friday will see more influence from the next approaching frontal sequence, which means winds will swing to the north and not the east - favouring all coasts, not just the open beaches east of Melbourne. 

As such, expect inconsistent though fun waves around 3ft+ west of Melbourne both days, reaching somewhere in the 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft range at exposed beaches east of Melbourne. Thursday looks a little dicey on the Peninsula with freshening NW winds, Friday is a better option as we’ll see the wind tend N’ly or even N/NE.

This weekend (June 13 - 14)

I’m still not expecting much surf this weekend.

A vigorous frontal progression through the Bight will strengthen northerly winds on Saturday, ahead of a NW thru’ W/NW change on Sunday, but with Friday’s swell rapidly easing through the day surf options will be limited. 

The Surf Coast could see early 1-2ft sets on Saturday but it’ll abate to a foot or less by the afternoon, and whilst we’ll see larger waves east of Melbourne - perhaps 3-4ft open beaches at dawn - it’ll be blustery with N’ly winds reaching 20-30kts through the day. Size will also ease here so your best option for a surf will be very early.

Small, residual groundswells will persist through Sunday along with building windswells at exposed beaches east of Melbourne as the onshore breeze strengthens. Only the Surf Coast will be able to handle this wind and I doubt there’ll be enough size to bother with. 

Next week (June 15 onwards)

The approaching frontal progression providing swell for next week will be very active with multiple embedded lows in the westerly stream. This will produce an extended period of strong, powerful surf for all southern states, though with the overall storm track riding quite north in latitude, the swell direction will have quite a lot of west and this will attenuate wave heights along the Surf Coast. 

There’s also been a slight change in the model guidance since Monday; we’re now no longer looking at a significant cut-off feature south of the Bight on Sunday, instead the fronts will line up one after another, each working on the active sea state generated by the previous system. This is a better outcome in my opinion, as we'll see a more continual swell/wind regime across the region.

Therefore, aside from a temporary period of smaller surf early Monday, we’re looking at solid surf building into the 4-6ft range along the Surf Coast by Monday afternoon, holding through Tuesday and Wednesday at a similar size before slowly easing from Thursday. There’ll be one or two larger pulses embedded within this pattern that could push a little higher, maybe 6-8ft at the regional swell magnets for a few hours. This is most likely to happen either late Monday or early Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday morning. But, confidence is not high on exactly when they'll appear.

East from Melbourne, exposed locations should push 8-10ft and there’ll be great options inside the protected bays and points under the predominant W/NW thru’ NW breeze. 

Easing size from Thursday should still maintain inconsistent 3-4ft sets in Torquay through into the weekend (bigger 6ft+ surf east of Melbourne). Light winds are expected everywhere under a weak high pressure ridge so conditions will be clean. 

All in all, it’s an extended run of quality, solid winter surf on the way. 

See you Friday!

Comments

walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 1:06pm

What made the call for Wednesday in Monday's notes tricky? Swell clearly turned up early with the increase in size happening before dawn rather than not showing until later in the day as was predicted.

Don't take me too seriously.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 1:12pm

Sorry.. what's the issue?

I said the new swell would arrive in the morning, and peak later in the day (rather than early). Buoy data shows this to still going be the case (Sorell is still on the way up), though the dawn session this morning wasn't perhaps quite as small as expected. 

Keeping in mind, when I wrote these FC Notes on Monday, it was the first time I've looked at the Southern Ocean synoptics in months - and this morning's swell was already on the way (and thus, difficult to hindcast precise arrival time). One of the hardest parts about forecasting is the first one for a new region, as you're starting without minimal knowledge of what recent swell trends have been, how the models have been performing etc.

walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white's picture
walter-r-white commented Thursday, 11 Jun 2020 at 11:16pm

If I remember correctly (could be wrong) the notes said fading Tuesday, new swell arriving Wednesday but won't lift until later in the day. I did surf so it's a moot point but I was expecting that if Tuesday was forecast to be 2ft and fading and no swell increase likely until Wednesday PM that Wednesday AM would be much less than 2ft. Was curious.

Don't take me too seriously.

brainiac's picture
brainiac's picture
brainiac commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 1:42pm

Fark vicco is full of picky and whingey carnnnts . Just be grateful the swell was bigger than expected.

denchy's picture
denchy's picture
denchy commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 1:56pm

Poor Walter made other plans for the morning.....

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 3:44pm

Lorne looking like the Whitsundays (except it's thirteen degrees).

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 4:57pm

Water still warmer than normal for this time of year 3/2 no booties

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 3:46pm

:)

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 5:07pm

I disagree willi. Colder than normal IMO..

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 5:57pm

14.1 degrees, about right for mid-June. Still a month away till booties but I’m in my hood to look after my ears

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 5:19pm

v much looking forward to some solid lorne point during this southern ocean storm cycle. fingers crossed it's even bigger than forecast! yewpah

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 5:32pm

Solid Lorne point..

Is that an oxymoron?

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 7:30pm

Nice, you made me laugh GF, an oxymoron.... yes.

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 9:55pm

only time will tell gf. and time WILL tell...

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 11 Jun 2020 at 9:39am

That it will my friend. Yewpah

tubehunter's picture
tubehunter's picture
tubehunter commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 5:37pm

:)

cackydreaming's picture
cackydreaming's picture
cackydreaming commented Wednesday, 10 Jun 2020 at 8:39pm

Well since we are all a whingey bunch I've noticed recently the variance and poor quality of reports on the Mornington Penisula i.e. today....
2020-06-10 07:12:00: bumpy 2-3ft SW, Light N, cold 5/10
and 20mins earlier....
2020-06-10 06:52:00: clean 4-5ft SW, Light N, fine 7/10
Someone is reporting from the warmth of their bed!!

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes commented Friday, 12 Jun 2020 at 9:34am

lorne point absolutely firing last night. calling it best ever.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 12 Jun 2020 at 11:16am

Was Worm out there???

Wasn't best ever if Worm wasn't out there.....

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes commented Friday, 12 Jun 2020 at 3:29pm

coulda been... not sure... was too blinded by the perfection

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 12 Jun 2020 at 4:11pm

I reckon worm would have been out there in the afternoon. Dirt pimps only work three hours a day, so he probably clocked on at 9, finished at noon, had a long lunch, and then a quick paddle.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 12 Jun 2020 at 11:50am

Enough of this light winds, sunshine and warm weather shit. Nice to see winter really kicking in next week with blinding offshore, driving rain, and plummeting temps.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 12 Jun 2020 at 6:23pm

Ok dracula

I am the bone

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Friday, 12 Jun 2020 at 8:31pm

Really VL starting with a partly cloudy top of 18 on Monday. Followed by 17, 16,17, 18.. ooohhhh freezing .....