Craig

Windy new swell tomorrow, average until late in the weekend

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 6th May)

Best Days: Thursday, Sunday morning Surf coast, Monday Surf Coast, Tuesday onwards Surf Coast

Recap

A drop in swell yesterday, though the inconsistent and long-range W/SW groundswell provided a touch more energy than expected through the day.

The Mornington Peninsula saw clean and fun 3ft+ surf with a late afternoon glass of, small and 1-2ft on the Surf Coast.

Today the swell is smaller again with tiny clean waves on the Surf Coast, an inconsistent and clean 2ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week and weekend (May 7 - 12)

With the swell bottoming out today, we look at our new long-period SW groundswell due on the coast tomorrow morning.

Satellite images of the low have come back quite impressive, but as you can see the fetch is poorly aligned for swell generation across Victorian and angled west-northwest. Still, storm-force barbs were recorded, stronger than the forecast severe-gale winds, and even though the track was also unfavourable and to the south-east, we should see some decent swell spreading off the low.

It will be a short-lived event, peaking tomorrow morning likely to 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing through the day.

Winds are still tricky but workable with a strong morning N'ly, easing slightly while tending N/NW into the afternoon.

Come Friday the swell will be gone, and we'll have some average, weaker, building mid-period W'ly swell from a severe low that's currently impacting Western Australia.

This low is very significant and will generate severe-gale W'ly winds under WA's South Coast today, but this will be too north of our swell window and aimed into South Australia.

As the low weakens and dips south-east tomorrow we'll see a much weaker and poorly aligned fetch of strong W-W/NW winds generated in our western swell window through the afternoon.

This isn't ideal at all and isn't expected to offer any real size to the Surf Coast with 1-2ft waves max due, possibly 2-3ft to the east. The models are picking up way more size than expected, so expect Friday to be a lay day with fresh N/NW winds.

Saturday unfortunately doesn't look much better with a secondary front moving under WA and then spawning into a low south-west of us on Friday not likely to generate any decent new swell until later in the day, with the better SW groundswell for Sunday.

The front will move through during the day Saturday though bringing strengthening NW tending W'ly winds and a likely increase in short-range W/SW swell to 2ft later in the day on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east, smaller in the morning.

Sunday's swell is still on track though, with the formation of the low on Friday expected to generating a slow moving fetch of gale to near severe-gale SW winds firing up temporarily, before weakening while tracking east into Friday evening and Saturday.

We should see the SW groundswell peaking Sunday with waves around 4ft on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east with a fresh W/NW breeze, shifting W/SW through the day.

Monday will be smaller though with persistent W/NW winds.

Further into next week it looks like we'll see mid-latitude fronts generating moderate sized pulses of swell with westerly winds, favouring the Surf Coast, but more on this Friday.

Comments

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 10:59am

Thanks Craig. Those images are great at showing how complex our weather is.
Will also be interesting to see if the easing of restrictions next week has an impact on numbers in the water.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 11:56am

I fucking hope so. So many City of Stonnington stickers about.

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 11:58am

Which reminded me of Parks stickers. Remember having to pay to go in the park and having that pass.

I am the bone

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 3:53pm

Still got a few stuck on the windscreen of the old car. The buggers didn't come off very easily. John Brumby's gift to the people that one.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 5:04pm

What a fucken joke that was. Paying to go surf.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 5:43pm

Nah GF, it wasn't that bad, $20 for a full season pass if I recall correctly when I lived down there and when I was a student they'd let you take a look (sand bank 'check') without charge, then I'd just park outside and walk in.

Anyhow, other than 1st Carpark Gunna, most of the best spots were/are outside of those old toll carparks anyway.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 6:14pm

When you’re a 1st year apprentice earning $197 a week it was a joke, like I said.
The beach should be free for everyone

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 7:33pm

Yep, totally agree with that GF. The Australia coast and bush is free and available to al,l as long as you don't abuse it.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 6:40pm

I don't have a problem with paying to go into national parks - the government's recurrent funding never covers the cost of adequate operations and certainly doesn't address all the issues arising from people's use, pests and fire, let alone set them up to properly conserve nature (which is the actual intent). People pay - too much IMO - to go into alpine national parks, but $50 a year or so to go into a park doesn't make too much of a dent, even if you're on $197 a week. That's one stubby a fortnight. Bargain.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 6:45pm

Thats the good thing about an opinion tango, they cant be wrong!

I think we pay enough in taxes for the government to subsidise national parks.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 7:31pm

The potholes round Porto carparks heinous. This was before corona. But they can always have new vehicles for the fuck all they do

I am the bone

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 12:45pm

yawn

denchy's picture
denchy's picture
denchy commented Wednesday, 6 May 2020 at 8:13pm

Lol
Its more crowded now than normal now that every fucker doesn't stay at home to save lives. Unemployed, cheap petrol, let's go surfing

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 7:14am

8 dudes out in the dark. You dont even see this shit on a good day haha.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 7:36am

Should see Curly today :o

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 8:10am

Looking like this swell was more a miss than a hit. Inconsistent and that wind isn't helping.

Wasn't well aligned as detailed above. There are sets but..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 8:37am

Bit more energy now.. Had reports of 4ft to sometimes 5ft sets on an MP magnet.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 10:00am

Slow AF and dat windddddd

Should see how razor straight the sand in those screen grabs. You can also see the way the way the double up doesnt double up. Very text book Porto there

I am the bone

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 11:09am

Genuine question - as a surfer is it somewhat tortuous living on the MP? Admittedly I never bother heading that way for a surf anymore after trying a handful of times and just being frustrated at the lack of quality, but just seems that good to great conditions are a rarity down that way and 9 times out of 10 the surf will be better on the SC or the island. MP gets plenty of swell but is it fair to say it struggles to handle it?

brainiac's picture
brainiac's picture
brainiac commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 11:15am

No Dowdy you are wrong. The Mp has plenty of quality waves , you must be looking in the wrong spots. It certainly can handle size.
seek and you shall you find!

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 11:30am

Fair enough. My view is based purely on reading daily reports and when other spots sound great, MP not so much. Will leave it for the locals!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 11:53am

One end wayyy more consistent than the other in terms of banks. Depends what you mean on holding size. You’ll rarely find a wave that is actually 6ft. More often than not you’ll be surfing a reform. The rip will dictate what it can hold. But fuck, honestly alot more misses than hits in quality.

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 6:51pm

"You’ll rarely find a wave that is actually 6ft."
Buuuut if you want to paddle big tubes there also the option if you're that way inclined

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 2:16pm

Yep, you can really use that frustrating lack of quality to your advantage. Just takes years to work it all out

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 12:01pm

789705-F6-6022-4-D10-812-F-4-FC38-AA4454-C

Not only can the yuppies scramble for the horizon on the sets, but now they can easily host there zoom boardroom meetings with 5G connection!

I am the bone

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 12:31pm

Wow, so you can get 5G signal while surfing Spooks? Must be a lot of call for those "smart" surfboards Medina was helping push some time back. Bit late for Harry Holt tho, could have been useful.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Friday, 8 May 2020 at 10:19am

haha. Good one!

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Friday, 8 May 2020 at 12:00am

Days like that are epic in remote southern vic. Pumping 4-6foot and not a soul in sight

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Thursday, 7 May 2020 at 10:01pm

Reckon there might be a wave on MP tomorrow arvo..?