Stormy weekend, improving next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 10th April)

Best Days: Protected spots over the coming days, Monday morning, Tuesday, Wednesday exposed beaches

Recap

A mix of small SW swell and SE windswell on the coast yesterday with improving conditions across the beaches to 3ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft on the Surf Coast.

This morning conditions were clean across most spots but the swell small to tiny and easing.

This weekend and next week (Apr 11 – 17)

As we're right on the cusp of the weekend, we've got a clearer idea on the expected frontal activity due to impact the state.

Firstly, the strengthening polar low late in our swell window today has generated a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds, with a fleeting pulse of S/SW groundswell due from this source tomorrow morning.

It's a moot point though as there'll be larger and building levels of close-range swell as a strong cold front pushes up and into us.

This system has been upgraded a little since Wednesday and we'll see SW tending S/SW gales projected right up and through Bass Strait this evening and tomorrow, kicking up a large and stormy SW swell event.

We're now expected to see the Surf Coast jump to a stormy 5-6ft through the mid-late afternoon, 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with strong W/SW-SW winds. There's a very slim chance for a dawn W'ly on the Surf Coast, but conditions will be raw and bumpy and not worth worrying about. Size wise the swell will be smaller and to 3ft or so at a rough guestimate.

We'll see the swell easing through Sunday as the front clears to the east overnight, while the secondary weaker polar front pushing up behind it looks to steer winds a touch more favourably for protected spots early.

A fresh to strong SW'ly is due across most locations but select locations on the Surf Coast may see a brief W-W/SW breeze around dawn. Again it'll not be ideal and mostly bumpy and raw with easing sets from 4-5ft, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A temporary low point in swell is due Monday morning with surf to 3ft or so on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft+ to the east but with cleaner conditions under a morning W/NW breeze, S'ly into the afternoon (SW across the Mornington Peninsula).

Into the afternoon the reinforcing S/SW swell from the polar front is due to fill in, with a broad but relatively weak fetch of SW winds pushing up through our southern swell window through the weekend.

A slight kick in size is expected through the afternoon (3-4ft Surf Coast - 6ft to the east), easing from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast Tuesday morning, around the 5ft range to the east.

Winds are looking more favourable for a wider selection of locations Tuesday and out of the N-N/NW, likely variable into the afternoon and N/NE east of Melbourne.

Wednesday looks smaller as fresher N/NE offshores kick in, favouring the beaches.

Longer term, as discussed last update, there's plenty more swell on the way as it looks like the Southern Ocean will be over-active in our medium-range swell window for at least the next fortnight.

This will produce plenty of swell with what looks to be favourable winds as the storms stay at arms reach. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 11:42am

Judging by the biblical hordes on the St Kilda foreshore not many people have travelled.
Everyone walking, dogs, jogging, cycling, s’all good, man.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 12:52pm

Wrong

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 12:53pm

There’s plenty of c%^ts to go round. C%^ts at one beach doesn’t mean they also aren’t at another

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 1:38pm

Grow up, language not needed.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 1:44pm

Yeah ease up a little on the language Nick. I've softened it a bit for ya. Cheers.

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 1:59pm

There aren’t any dogs?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 2:29pm

Sorry for usage of words. Just reporting it how I see it from one of many ground zeros. Yup, premier said you can travel to your holiday homes. Kool. Come one, come all down to a virus hotspot. Cheers for both.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 2:36pm

Is dog a antonym?

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 2:52pm

Feels like it at the moment! Surfing dogs are spiting us!

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 1:41pm

All this Autumn swell and I am grounded. I just want to go surfing man. While in lock down I am not spending money on anything much so I will soon have $$ saved up for a new surfboard.

Kevchecksurf's picture
Kevchecksurf's picture
Kevchecksurf Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 5:25pm

Moot. It's a moot point.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 10:10pm

Ah thanks, knew there was something off when I was writing that.

The Pop's picture
The Pop's picture
The Pop Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 8:06pm

Witnessed 2 different crew being fined $1600 each for having travelled to surf the south west coast today. The police said same approach will be adopted along the Surf Coast and Colac Otway coast this weekend.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 8:59pm

The abc news reported a Victorian man got fined on the 4th time he was questioned about not being at home and on the road without a valid reason.
But the bloke on the Ducati doing 195kph on the Geelong bypass Thursday arvo saying he was riding to Torquay for hand sanitizer takes the cake. What a unit. His address was Albert park.

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo Saturday, 11 Apr 2020 at 6:44am

How does Vic get away with $1600 and NSW $1000?

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Saturday, 11 Apr 2020 at 7:19am

We are under a dictatorship gov robo.
When Dan call State of pandemic or State of emergency every 5 min no laws are passed through lower house then upper house with a 51% pass to make them a rule.
He just pulles this crap out of his arse it's a joke.
He should be tried for treason and sentenced to 100 wet Willy's in his massive ears

HKFC's picture
HKFC's picture
HKFC Saturday, 11 Apr 2020 at 12:10pm

If you're suggesting that the bushfires and now this aren't legitimate crises I think you deserve a wet willy Pigdog

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Saturday, 11 Apr 2020 at 3:12pm

I didn't vote for dictatorship.
We live in Australia not China or Russia.
It a joke.

where-was-m-p's picture
where-was-m-p's picture
where-was-m-p Sunday, 12 Apr 2020 at 12:30am

Have a look at the US. It’s pretty crook there.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 11 Apr 2020 at 3:49pm

So there's no functioning lower house at the moment?

Paul Reynolds's picture
Paul Reynolds's picture
Paul Reynolds Saturday, 11 Apr 2020 at 1:12pm

Does WA have social distancing rules? Have a look at the South Trigg camera as it looks like a very crowded summer day at the beach.