There's light at the end of the tunnel
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 19th February)
Best Days: Exposed beaches Sunday morning, Monday and Tuesday morning, later next week
A small and clean 2ft wave for the dawny on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island yesterday before the tide got to it, while into the afternoon some new inconsistent groundswell started to show as winds remained variable and conditions workable. The Surf Coast cleaned up with incoming storm activity but remained tiny.
Today a mix of new W/SW groundswell and S/SW windswell along with strong onshore winds have provided more size on the coast but conditions are very poor with only a handful of surfable options state wide.
This week and weekend (Jan 20 - 23)
There's no improvement to the surf expected over the coming days, with onshore winds due to persist as today's mix of groundswell and windswell ease back through tomorrow and Friday.
Fresh S/SW winds will ease through tomorrow with a mix of easing swells from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, smaller Friday with the early W'ly wind that was possible for the Surf Coast now not on the cards.
Moderate to sometimes fresh SW tending S winds will continue to create poor surfing conditions Friday as the swell drops further.
Our pulse of S/SW swell from a small and strengthening low late in our swell window is now not on the cards for the weekend with it weaker and deepening east of Tassie instead of west.
Winds are onshore in any case Saturday, but we'll see a continuation of small swells and winds out of the S/SE. A more variable E/NE-NE breeze is due to develop Sunday morning but with small 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast, clean and 3ft or so on the Mornington Peninsula, well worth making the most of.
Moving into Monday and we've got an upgrade in a SW groundswell due across the state, with a polar low that's currently in the Heard Island region due to generate a great fetch of pre-frontal severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds in our far swell window.
The low will weaken slowly while moving further east and under the country, but we should see a moderate sized, though inconsistent long-period SW groundswell, building Monday, peaking later in the day and then easing slowly Tuesday.
Size wise the Surf Coast should build to an inconsistent but strong 3-4ft Monday afternoon, with 5-6ft+ sets to the east. Winds aren't too bad and will be lingering onshore out of the S'th, only light in the morning, increasing through the day, with Tuesday playing out similar as the swell eases. All in all with the strength of the swell there should be fun options into Monday and Tuesday morning.
Following early next week's groundswell, we've got a strong polar frontal progression due to develop south-west of us mid-late week as a node of the Long Wave Trough strengthens and moves in across us. This should bring plenty of swell and favourable winds for the Surf Coast into later next week, but more on this Friday.