Craig

Very average run continues

UNLESS YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH, PLEASE DON'T TRAVEL TO SURF

COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 17th January)

Best Days: Desperate surfers dawn Friday on the Surf Coast, exposed beaches Sunday morning

Recap

Terrible conditions all weekend with onshore winds and a poor swell Saturday, swinging more easterly yesterday kicking up a building south-east windswell.

This morning we've got cleaner conditions across the exposed beaches but a weak and easing windswell from peaky 2ft on the sets, bigger to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast but bumpy.

This week and weekend (Feb 18 – 21)

Well this morning's waves, while not great at all were the best of the week east of Melbourne, with poor surf still set to continue over the coming days.

Conditions will be clean early tomorrow with variable winds ahead of a westerly change but there'll be no size left in the water at all with today's SE windswell fading back overnight. A new inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due later in the day, but with those W/SW tending SW winds.

This groundswell (discussed last week) has hit WA and is due to kick later tomorrow to 2ft on the Surf Coast, bigger to the east and peak Wednesday to 2-3ft west of Melbourne and 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula but with strong and terrible SW tending S/SW winds.

These onshore winds will kick up similar amounts of junky windswell which will slowly ease with the groundswell on Thursday as fresh and gusty S/SW winds persist.

Come Friday we should see an early W/NW breeze on the Surf Coast before quickly shifting back to the S/SW along with an easing mix of swells from 2ft or so, bigger to the east.

Into the afternoon and more so Saturday a new pulse of S/SW swell is due off a tight low forming late in our swell window Thursday. No major size or strength is expected off this low, and winds will continue to be a problem, moderate out of the S tending S/SE. Size wise the Surf Coast should see waves to 3ft, 4ft to occasionally to the east.

Sunday should become cleaner with a light variable E/NE breeze and easing swell from 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east.

Longer term an inconsistent and long-range SW groundswell is on the cards for early-mid next week, possibly mixed in with some close-range swell as a series of polar fronts push up and towards us. The models diverge around these developments though, so check back Wednesday for a clearer idea.

Comments

brainiac's picture
brainiac's picture
brainiac commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 12:28pm

This is now getting ridiculous.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 1:20pm

There’s been more SE swells in the last 6 weeks than I have had in my 6 years on the peninsula.

Craig, reckon the atmospheric warming event is still having an effect?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 1:27pm

Nah, it's just in an East Coast favouring pattern.

I remember these runs back in South Oz. S/SE for 6 days, NE for half a day and then back to the S/SE.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 2:00pm

Make the most of it Craig. I'm heading up to the East Coast for work in March. You can guarantee it with turn to shit up there and start firing in Victoria. For the last 9 months, I'm the world fucking champion at missing swells.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Average's picture
Average's picture
Average commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 2:06pm

Can you move your trip forward a couple of weeks? I can't wait till March for the waves to return.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 2:21pm

Sorry Average, no can do. But on the bright side, April should be good in Victoria and next summer is going to be all time. Start ordering a new quiver now.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 2:35pm

Very autumn like the last couple of weeks here, let's hope it keeps up!

denchy's picture
denchy's picture
denchy commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 1:24pm

I should have taken up Kite surfing

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 6:59pm

You still can...and windsurfing

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 1:43pm

My golf has improved outta sight in 2020!

Every cloud has a silver lining........

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 1:51pm

and my garden has never looked better! Esp after all the recent rain

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 6:43pm

couple of boards on the way

plus we've been going for walks and meeting echidnas

I did notice how all the green has come back, been planting things too

Edit: am I allowed to say this? It was a very mild summer. About 4 days of high 30's/low 40s - but otherwise not that hot at all. On the coast, the green remained in the verges and even you could see a trace in the fields and national park understorey. The rest of the country seemed to be on fire, but it was cooler, and lately more humid here. Late Feb is peak danger season for fires, but we have seen rain, green return and lots of humidity in the SE winds. A few days of bushfire smoke from the east. The November SSW brought many westerlies and pumped like May, colder too and I spoke to some tourists who couldn't understand why the water in Australia was so cold! All in all, it's been a bit surreal.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 1:56pm

I'm mowing lawns like a Queenslander. Every second day the grass needs a cut.
Where for art thou dry NW winds?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Dowdy's picture
Dowdy's picture
Dowdy commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 2:07pm

Yeh this is fucked, can't recall such a wretched run like this. Urbnsurf reaping the rewards though....probably explains why they keep over-booking sessions

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 2:24pm

Urbnsurf could not have launched at a better time. It will be interesting to see what happens to their bookings when the salt water waves are good.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Dowdy's picture
Dowdy's picture
Dowdy commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 2:39pm

A mate of mine has been doing some work on their site, his feedback is they are struggling with funds big time to finish things off, pushing back some contractors starting on things again and again. They even offered to pay him with equity in the company rather than actual money for his services. He politely declined. I hope it's a success, but I wonder what mid-week in Winter will look like when the keen surfers actually hit the ocean and the funds from paying customers dry up.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 3:30pm

Even if (and it's a massive "if") the developers go broke, the place would get sold as a going concern. It's 98% finished so it's not like there wouldn't be a buyer just waiting in the wings. Future bookings would be honoured in the unlikely event the current owners refinanced the place or sold it.
The average punter using the place wouldn't even know there was an ownership change. There will be a wave pool at Tullamarine for a very long time.
PS, Urbnsurf were handing out some freebies to testers, friends, and high profile surfers pre-public opening. Since it's opened it's been solidly booked by paying customers. The freebies are gone because the paid patrons have taken all the slots. Not sure your friend has the good oil.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Dowdy's picture
Dowdy's picture
Dowdy commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 3:35pm

I hope it remains there, I'm a fan of it. I wonder if the freebies continue hence the continual reports of sessions with 22+ surfers in the pool despite a max booking of 18. Your average punter can't book once it's 'booked out' but that doesn't stop the company sending out mates or staff for a surf in a booked out session

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 3:46pm

Might be a waiting list. The pool was closed for a few days after that massive dust storm. Might need to clear the backlog.
Word on the street is the freebies are long gone. Might have to wait til winter until I get mine and kiss the arse of surfing's Willie Wonka. "you go on this one (name redacted). You're a top bloke and will surf it way better than me"

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 6:04pm

I've heard that about the numbers in the water. I spose theres just a clause in the T&Cs about that which we just don't bother to read.

Since opening, just looking at the booking page seems like it has built a fair bit of momentum, the right especially. Nearly booked out as far as the calendar lets you go!

I am the bone

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 2:32pm

Mmmmmmmm... I vaguely remember how depressing it was for the last three or four months of last year, watching the SSW deliver a prolonged negative SAM, which delivered endless pumping swells for Vicco, and not a whole lotta love for Northern NSW and SE Qld.

Sorry fellas... zero sympathy from my end. You've had your fill. Now it's ours!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 5:00pm

zero sympathy at all. fuck there's being plenty of SE but a lot of light ones and Easterlies too. What season we in? You guys don't shite dilemma of either a 5 hour drive round or expensive ferry to go to places when its smaller which there has been plenty of those too..

Sorry it's not 4ft Westerlies which is about 9 months of the year.

shhhh please. shhhhh big time

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 5:04pm

another point for my rant just popped up

you get you swell wind combo then its wah wah wah crowds crowds crowds

I enjoy the mediocrity, way way less numbers and if you score along the way when it exceeds expectations.

yolo

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 5:23pm

Swell was small enough to get a couple of Crays this afternoon after work. So not all bad I guess. But yeh the waves have been putrid

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 6:46pm

You've got to have a second hobby if your a dedicated surfer, otherwise these long stints of dire conditions will send you completly mad. Luckily for us Vicco surfers, our shitty stints are much less common compared to our northern cousins, I just don't know how they do it up there.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 17 Feb 2020 at 7:15pm

A combination of 2 things: the Queenslander house, and tropical eccentricity. All sorts of hobby possibilities can be done downstairs. I heard of one bloke rebuilding a Spitfire... An elder relative cuts gemstones... another had an amazing cowrie shell collection. He would ask me to dive on outer south coast WA reefs to find a particular example, I'd reply "do you know what else is out on those reefs?!"

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 at 2:31pm

Yep off dirty biking most weekends of late as the surf is so shite. Good weather for it at mid 20's and green.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 at 4:32pm

Ha, me too! Riding dirt bikes is a great way to get rid of some frustration and keep some fitness but my poor paddle muscles are fading away too nothing, I'll pull-up sore after the next decent run of quality surf that's forsure.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 at 4:19pm

New swell lines showing..

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 at 6:32pm

torquay cam just got EMP'd by the lightning storm?

it was a good storm, too

feels very change of season

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 at 6:43pm

I've always loved a nice VJ but if you're promising a change of season, you'll be my favorite VJ EVER! ;)

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 at 7:41pm

Well, like ringmaster I might be headed north soon - if so it will pump here in Vic and be small surf blown out by northerlies up there...

And you gotta be careful with VJ, can lead to surprises

Any more rain and I'll have to fit snorkels to my lettuce...

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 at 8:15pm

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/severe-thunderstorms-like...

34.8mm so far in Geelong Racecourse, radar looked like more than this hit the coast

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 18 Feb 2020 at 8:59pm

VJ further to what you said above about the vegetation looking lush and green, tonight I noticed the Stipa’s or Spear Grass that grows on the cliff line at the back beach looking really green and healthy. Often in drier times it starts looking a bit thin and sad but tonight you could tell it’s been having a really good drink lately. Magic stuff

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Wednesday, 19 Feb 2020 at 5:35pm

Yep the landscape is going green early.
Victoria - Garden State (best plates ever)