Craig

Make the most of today

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 14th January)

Best Days: Today, desperate surfers Monday morning

Recap

Poor conditions continued yesterday across both coasts, while today we've got lighter and more variable winds across all locations but the surf still sounds a bit average. A mix of energy to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft on the Surf Coast.

Make the most of this as the weekend is looking poor.

This weekend and next week (Feb 15 – 21)

We've got another poor weekend of surf ahead with a surface trough moving in from the west early tomorrow morning expected to bring fresh and strengthening S/SW winds with no decent groundswell left from today.

Our shift in winds to the E/SE on Sunday has come in as expected and in line with EC, moving through just before or on dawn, creating poor conditions as they strengthen with an easing S/SW windswell from Saturday.

We'll see some new SE windswell building across both coasts into Sunday afternoon, easing Monday as winds improve for the beaches to the east, swinging E'ly and even E/NE for a period through the morning as the swell eases.

We're likely to see easing sets from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east for the keen.

Tuesday looks cleaner with variable winds across both coasts but no swell.

Later in the day our new inconsistent W/SW groundswell should start to show though, bumpy with afternoon sea breezes, with the bulk of the sell due to fill in Wednesday.

The source of this swell is a good but distant frontal progression in our western swell window. it will track a little too fast than ideal but will broaden, with a secondary intensification increasing the longevity.

The only issue are the winds and they still look poor and onshore, strong from S/SW as a surface trough moves through early morning.

Size wise the Surf Coast should build to a very inconsistent 2-3ft, with 4-5ft+ sets developing on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from a similar size on Thursday but with lingering onshore S'ly winds.

Longer term it looks like we'll see a return to E'ly winds and SE windswells through next weekend and no quality groundswell. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the outlook is poor. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 1:08pm

ENE Cape Otway
SW Portsea

How?

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 2:29pm

Change coming from the east instead of west?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 4:42pm

Twas SE then that that storm came in and went SW only for like 20 mins, then back variable.

Drizzle has settled and it’s a certified glass off. I love storm activity.

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 4:53pm

Stoked!

HORACE's picture
HORACE's picture
HORACE commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 1:19pm

How's the outlook for the pool?

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 2:26pm

It's alright, everything is just fine.......deep breaths......deep breaths........ we're almost at the end of Summer and Autumn is just around the corner isn't Craig, please tell me it's just around the corner......

Laird88's picture
Laird88's picture
Laird88 commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 2:37pm

What.....Autumn!?!?!?!
With climate change n all, I am not hopeful that conditions are going to change soon enough !

Johnyuleanderson's picture
Johnyuleanderson's picture
Johnyuleanderson commented Sunday, 16 Feb 2020 at 5:17pm

Tell me about it! The endless summer of unfavourable winds! Luckily Point Tulla has provided some relief. Bring in autumn and winter

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 3:57pm

Actually that was damn fun, just had a lunch time session with just my son and self on a peak, fast & down the line waves with sections. Son did grab rail takeoffs under crashing lips and was making it, with really good speed & flow through the mid and end sections :) Wonder what the swell direction was, cos with the cloud (including low dark cloud, almost like a temperature inversion),humidity and odd bit of lightning/thunder it felt a bit N NSW/SE QLD beachy.

My tide watch has been playing up, and with all the SE flow recently, I couldn't quickly refer to the usual rocks to work out which part of the tide it was, all have been covered. There may yet be blessings from all this shite SE wind and interesting SE swell.

Other than that, Craig can I please have an empty fast down the line 4ft righthander with speed runs, barrel sections and a side order of glassyness?

channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom commented Friday, 14 Feb 2020 at 4:43pm

"can I please have an empty fast down the line 4ft righthander with speed runs, barrel sections and a side order of glassyness?"

Maybe in a few weeks at blue haired naked beach?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 15 Feb 2020 at 9:25am

That would be great... You already know which board was the star of the session I described above... And there's an even younger generation now :)
Must admit the mind has been wandering to gumtree looking over clean original 60 series Landcruisers...