Make the most of today
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 14th January)
Best Days: Today, desperate surfers Monday morning
Poor conditions continued yesterday across both coasts, while today we've got lighter and more variable winds across all locations but the surf still sounds a bit average. A mix of energy to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft on the Surf Coast.
Make the most of this as the weekend is looking poor.
This weekend and next week (Feb 15 – 21)
We've got another poor weekend of surf ahead with a surface trough moving in from the west early tomorrow morning expected to bring fresh and strengthening S/SW winds with no decent groundswell left from today.
Our shift in winds to the E/SE on Sunday has come in as expected and in line with EC, moving through just before or on dawn, creating poor conditions as they strengthen with an easing S/SW windswell from Saturday.
We'll see some new SE windswell building across both coasts into Sunday afternoon, easing Monday as winds improve for the beaches to the east, swinging E'ly and even E/NE for a period through the morning as the swell eases.
We're likely to see easing sets from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east for the keen.
Tuesday looks cleaner with variable winds across both coasts but no swell.
Later in the day our new inconsistent W/SW groundswell should start to show though, bumpy with afternoon sea breezes, with the bulk of the sell due to fill in Wednesday.
The source of this swell is a good but distant frontal progression in our western swell window. it will track a little too fast than ideal but will broaden, with a secondary intensification increasing the longevity.
The only issue are the winds and they still look poor and onshore, strong from S/SW as a surface trough moves through early morning.
Size wise the Surf Coast should build to a very inconsistent 2-3ft, with 4-5ft+ sets developing on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from a similar size on Thursday but with lingering onshore S'ly winds.
Longer term it looks like we'll see a return to E'ly winds and SE windswells through next weekend and no quality groundswell. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but the outlook is poor. Have a great weekend!